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A migrant center resident who allegedly molested a 12-year-old Manchester girl had recently finished his probation on a federal identity theft conviction.

Angel M. Rivera-Laureano, 59, was arrested last month at the migrant shelter in Chelmsford, Mass., on the Manchester warrant, according to court records obtained by the Maine Wire. But Rivera-Laureano’s known criminal history goes back to at least 2012, when he was caught cashing counterfeit IRS checks in the Queen City, according to court records.

The Maine Wire quotes a “law enforcement source with knowledge of the case” that Rivera-Laureano is a suspected illegal immigrant using different names and identities since coming to the U.S.

“The source said Jan. 1 is a birthday frequently used for illegal aliens living under assumed identities and that law enforcement isn’t even certain Rivera-Laureano is his real name,” the Maine Wire reported.

Rivera-Laureano’s story adds to the drumbeat of crime news involving migrants. On Monday, two New York City police officers were wounded in a shootout with a Venezuelan man who was in the country illegally. 

According to the New York Post, a judge closed the immigration case against alleged shooter Bernardo Castro Mata, 19 on May 6. Mata illegally crossed the border into Eagle Pass, Texas, where he was caught and arrested but later released in July 2023, according to the report.

President Joe Biden is finally bowing to pressure on the border. On Tuesday, he announced an executive order closing down ports of entry to those seeking asylum. But Biden’s move after years of stalling is not enough, says Republican gubernatorial candidate Kelly Ayotte.

“Joe Biden’s open-border policies have allowed millions of unvetted illegal immigrants into our nation and made our country less safe. Biden’s political move today is too little too late and does not do enough to stop the flow of illegal immigrants into our country” Ayotte said.

Ayotte, a former U.S. senator, is facing former state Senate President Chuck Morse in the GOP primary for governor.

“This horrific example illustrates how weak border policies make every state a border state, inviting drugs, crime, and gang activity to New England,” Morse said. “Candidates like Kelly Ayotte, who voted to give amnesty to millions of illegal immigrants, are no better than Joe Biden and can’t be trusted to suddenly grow a backbone on this issue. As governor, I will always protect New Hampshire families and will not back down from maintaining strong stances on immigration.”

The Ayotte campaign pushed back against Morse’s claim.

“Kelly Ayotte has never and will never support amnesty. Chuck Morse can’t rewrite history — he killed the sanctuary city ban and didn’t use E-Verify at his own company,” said spokesperson John Corbett.

Neither of the two major Democratic candidates for governor, former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig or Executive Councilor Cindy Warmington, responded to a request for comment. Craig’s previously expressed openness to so-called sanctuary cities. Warmington has said that while she’s not a fan, she would not seek to ban them. Ayotte said Craig and Warmington are not going to protect Granite Staters.

“Joyce Craig and Cinde Warmington support [Biden’s] disastrous policies and would turn New Hampshire into a sanctuary state. As Governor, I’ll never allow that to happen, and I will work every day to protect Granite Staters.”

U.S. Marshals caught Rivera-Laureano at a taxpayer-funded shelter operated by the state of Massachusetts, according to the Maine Wire. The converted Best Western hotel is now a shelter for illegal aliens or homeless U.S. citizens. Why Rivera-Laureano was living at the shelter is unknown. Court records list two addresses, the shelter and a home in Chelmsford, Mass. 

Rivera-Laureano was sentenced to three years in federal prison after he pleaded guilty to several counts including aggravated identity theft and fraud in 2013. He reportedly had fake drivers licenses made for an accomplice he recruited in New York, and the pair went north to cash the fake IRS checks in Manchester where they were caught.

Rivera-Laureano’s exact immigration status isn’t clear from available court records. His plea agreement and sentencing memorandum do not reference his immigration status being put at risk for the plea. There is a note in the sentencing order written by Judge Joseph Laplante recommending that Rivera-Laureano be allowed to serve his incarceration as close to Manchester as possible.

After his release in 2016, Rivera-Laureano was ordered to be on supervised probation for another three years, according to the sentencing order. That means Rivera-Laureano was free and clear as of spring 2019.

Rivera-Laureano came to live with an aunt in New York at age 16 after suffering abuse from his heroin-addict mother and her family, according to his sentencing memo. His father had abandoned the family when he was a small child, the memo states.

“It is clear that the defendant experienced a deeply deprived upbringing which left him unprepared for adulthood, the ramifications of which continue to this day,” the memo states.

Rivera-Laureano’s now being held without bail at Valley Street Jail in Manchester. He’s due in court for an arraignment in July. 

For state Rep. Keith Ammon (R-New Boston), Tuesday’s ruling striking down the state’s anti-discrimination in education law meant one thing.

“Judge Barbadoro just put stopping Critical Race Theory back on the ballot in November.”

New Hampshire Democrats, teachers unions, and the state chapter of the ACLU all celebrated United States District Court Judge Paul Barbadoro’s decision to declare the law unconstitutional. The Right to Freedom from Discrimination in Public Workplaces and Education law — often referred to by the judge and its critics as the “divisive concepts” law — was passed in 2021 in response to concerns about Critical Race Theory (CRT) content in classrooms. It barred any public employee from teaching or training others that race, sex, or other inherent characteristics made an individual racist, sexist, etc.

Democrats are delighted to see the law go.

“I am pleased that Judge Barbadoro recognized today what the Senate Democrats have said for years: the Republican’s ‘divisive concepts’ law is an unconstitutional infringement on the rights of Granite Staters,” said state Senate Democratic Leader Donna Soucy (D-Manchester).

And both Democrats running for governor confirmed Ammon’s prediction that the ruling would result in a partisan political battle.

Former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig promised to shut down any Republican who tries to revive the law.

“As governor, I’ll stop any bill that threatens teachers’ ability to teach and prevents students from receiving an honest education,” Craig said.

Her fellow Democratic candidate for governor, Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington, said the law “sought to undermine public education by subjecting educators to arbitrary and discriminatory enforcement and penalties. I am relieved to see the court’s ruling today declaring this law unconstitutional.”

And House Democratic Leader Rep. Matt Wilhelm (D-Manchester) linked the law to GOP-backed legislation for keeping boys out of girls’ bathrooms and off of girls-only sports teams.

“Make no mistake—the Republican Party will stop at nothing to infringe upon our children’s freedom with nonsensical culture wars like their “divisive concepts” ban, book bans, sports bans, and bathroom bans,” Wilhelm said.

But Republicans blasted the ruling. Sen. Tim Lang (R-Sanbornton) said it will allow teachers to promote racist CRT-inspired ideology in public classrooms.

“Seems odd the court thinks it’s OK to allow teachers to teach, based on your race, you are inherently a victim or a perpetrator of racism. Which is what the ‘divisive concepts’ law prohibited, no person is inherently racist based on race,” Lang said. 

Chuck Morse, who’s running in the GOP primary for governor, helped craft the legislation and get it to Gov. Chris Sununu’s desk. He said he will work to push through a law that passes constitutional muster if elected.

“We must equip our students with the tools to think critically and engage with each other respectfully, without the influence of biased and discriminatory teachings,” Morse said. “My administration will prioritize transparency, and adherence to constitutional principles to ensure that any new legislation will stand up to judicial scrutiny and serve the best interests of our students.”

Teachers union president Deb Howes with the New Hampshire American Federation of Teachers disagrees, saying Tuesday’s ruling should be the end of the lesson. 

“This decision should put to rest the issue, and New Hampshire teachers will no longer have to live under a cloud of fear of getting fired for actually teaching accurate, honest education.” Howes said. 

Ironically, the ruling may boost support for the Education Freedom Account program Howes and her Democratic allies oppose. Parents who discover they can’t prevent their children from being labeled “racist” or “privileged” by their local public school may turn to the EFA program to send their kids elsewhere.

Before the law passed, CRT-based content was being used in school districts like Manchester, Laconia, and Litchfield. However, there is no record of any teacher or administrator being subjected to enforcement under the law.

Manchester School District’s Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI) Director Christina Kim Philibotte and Andres Mejia, the former DEI director at SAU 16, said the ruling will let teachers get back to caring for “students of color, students from the LGBTQ+ community, and students with historically marginalized identities.”

“It is critically important that students see themselves in the books they read and in the classroom discussions they have to ensure that they feel cared for and valued,” Philibotte and Mejia said in a joint statement.

A federal judge ruled Tuesday that New Hampshire’s law barring the teaching of discriminatory content in schools is too vague and, therefore, violates the constitutional rights of educators. 

“The Amendments are viewpoint-based restrictions on speech that do not provide either fair warning to educators of what they prohibit or sufficient standards for law enforcement to prevent arbitrary and discriminatory enforcement,” wrote United States District Court Judge Paul Barbadoro. The judge based his ruling on the 14th Amendment protection against vague laws, and declared New Hampshire’s legislature passed a law that was nearly “unintelligible.”

The law’s supporters disagree.

Under the law tossed out by Judge Barbadoro:

• You can’t “teach, advocate, instruct, or train” people that one group is inherently superior or inferior to another.
• You can’t teach that people are inherently racist, sexist, etc., based on the group they’re in.
• You can’t teach that people should be discriminated against based on their group.
• You can’t teach people not to even try to treat people in other groups equally (the “race shouldn’t matter/colorblind” approach)

As a result, school districts like Manchester, Litchfield and Laconia could no longer use Critical Race Theory-based curriculum in their classrooms. Striking down the law will allow that content to return.

Barbadoro said the attempt to prevent teachers from telling students they are racist, sexist, etc. crossed the line into viewpoint discrimination.

“The most obvious vagueness problem is presented by the fourth concept, which prohibits teaching that individuals of one group ‘cannot and should not attempt to treat others without regard to’ their membership in another group. As other courts have observed, this language is ‘bordering on unintelligible’ because it employs the dreaded triple negative form,” Barbadoro wrote.

The judge argued the law created an untenable mix of subjective instructions and severe punishment under the law.

“Potential disciplinary sanctions include reprimand, suspension, and revocation of the educator’s certification,” Barbadoro wrote. “In other words, an educator who is found to have taught or advocated a banned concept may lose not only his or her job, but also the ability to teach anywhere in the state.”

New Hampshire Department of Education Commissioner Frank Edelblut’s office declined to comment.

Nixon Peabody attorney Morgan Nighan, who represented the plaintiffs, said a law so unclear that it cannot be followed is a clear violation of the 14th Amendment.

“No ordinary person can understand what is banned,” Nighan said. “Laws like this have been routinely struck down across the country.”

Teachers could not speak about affirmative action legal cases, Israel’s war against Hamas, or any potentially hot button current events issue for fear of breaking the law, Nighan claimed. That meant teachers avoided large sections of history or current events out of fear that could lose their licenses without knowing why.

“For example, teachers may attempt to stimulate discussion by asking students pointed questions or encourage debate by presenting students with ideas contrary to their own. When such techniques are used to explore a banned concept, it is impossible to know whether a banned concept has been impermissibly taught,” Barbadoro wrote.

Supporters of the law dismiss that claim, saying the line between teaching that racism exists and actually advocating racism is easy to see.

Attempts by Edeblut to clarify the law backfired, according to Barbadoro’s ruling. Edelblut tried to explain his views in a June 2021 newspaper oped, but that only added to the confusion and fear, Barbadoro said.

“The threat of arbitrary enforcement based on Edelblut’s personal views has impacted teachers even in the absence of a formal complaint,” Barbadoro wrote.

One incident noted in Barbadoro’s ruling involved Keene Middle School scrapping a plan to teach Ibrahim X. Kendi’s “Stamped: Racism, Antiracism, and  You” after the district bought 250 copies of the books. According to the ruling, Edelblut’s column was why Keene abandoned Kendi’s book.

According to Kendi, “There’s no such thing as a ‘not racist’ or ‘race neutral’ policy,” and any person who doesn’t embrace what he calls “antiracism” — overtly treating white people differently from people of color — is engaged in racism. Some parents objected to the notion that their children would be taught that their skin color makes them inherently privileged and racist.

New Hampshire passed the anti-discrimination law as a set of amendments to the biennial budget in 2021. Rather than banning specific “divisive concepts,” the amendments sought to bar teachers from “teaching, advocating, instructing, or training” students that one group is inherently superior or inferior to another; that people are inherently racist, sexist, etc., based on the group they’re in; that people should be discriminated against based on their group; to stop people from treating other equally.

While the law allowed for teachers to discuss issues like racism and sexism in class, there was no clear legal line that distinguished such discussions from actual teaching, opponents complained.

Megan Tuttle, president of the New Hampshire NEA teachers union, said the law “stifled New Hampshire teachers’ efforts to provide a true and honest education. Students, families, and educators should rejoice over this court ruling which restores the teaching of truth and the right to learn for all Granite State students.”

Michael Garrity, spokesman for New Hampshire’s Department of Justice, said the state is reviewing Barbadoro’s ruling.

“The state is currently reviewing the court’s order and will consider next steps, including whether to appeal.”

Despite offering $100 million to the hundreds of Sununu Youth Detention Center abuse victims, it looks like New Hampshire will still end up in court. 

Lawyers and victims expressed frustration and anger at the deal, approved by the state Senate late last week.

“I should never have put faith in the state to create a fair settlement process. They already proved they don’t care,” Dwayne Underwood, one of the victims said.

There have been hundreds of allegations of misconduct and abuse against staff at what was then called the Youth Development Center between 1963 and 2018. That abuse included gang rapes, being forced to fight each other for food, and being locked in solitary confinement for weeks or months. The center has been under investigation since 2019 and is scheduled to shut down in 2023.

David Vicinanzo, an attorney with Nixon Peabody, said his firm has filed 450 lawsuits against the state over the Sununu Center abuse and said 100 more lawsuits will be filed soon. Vicinanzo plans to push forward with the lawsuits instead of taking the settlement.

“We are full speed ahead preparing the cases for trial or mediation, which may be appropriate depending on whether the state decides to be fair or continues to shortchange and disrespect the victims,” Vicinanzo said.

Anthony Carr, who represents Underwood, said the victims continue to be ignored.

“This bill will not bring justice to the minors who were abused under the state’s care. It’s unfortunate that the victims of the Sununu Youth Services Center and the Youth Detention Center and their advocates were not consulted when creating this fund. The result is a process that is not victim-centered and, speaking for the many victims we represent, will not be widely used, if at all,” Carr said.

Both Carr and Vicinanzo would rather see the legislature make changes to the bill, especially the way the settlement defines abuse. Under the law as passed, survivors like Underwood would be frozen out as their experience would not be considered abuse.

“I was forced to undress regularly in Wilkins Cottage and expose myself to the guards for no good reason. I was forced to swim naked by the guards both on and off property. One time, a guard took me by van to a campsite by a river and he made me swim naked with him,” Underwood said. “This has caused me great trauma over the years, and I just don’t see why the state would not recognize what I went through as sexual abuse.”

The law also includes a maximum $1.5 million settlement cap for victims, depending on the abuse suffered, and contingent on the state’s definition of abuse. It is another point the lawyers want to be changed.

Vicinanzo has been critical of Senate President Chuck Morse (R-Salem). Vicinanzo said Morse has refused to meet with victims.

“Many of the victims pleaded with Senate President Morse for a short meeting weeks ago so they could share their pain personally with him before he managed this process to the vote he wanted … He responded that he was ‘not interested’ in meeting with them,” Vicinanzo said. “Unfortunately, he is not the only political leader who still has no empathy for victims or understanding of their suffering. The child victims of the state have been ignored and dehumanized for years, so the senator’s cold shoulder is nothing new.”

Morse, who is running in the crowded GOP primary to unseat incumbent U.S. Sen. Maggie Hassan, did not respond to requests for comment.

Vicinanzo said the state needs to reckon with the victims.

“After being ignored, disbelieved, and disrespected by the state for decades, we are a critical mass right now that the state has to take seriously and treat with decency and fairness,” he said.

So far, the New Hampshire Attorney General’s Office brought more than 108 charges against 11 former staff members for acts committed against 20 victims.

“It’s time for Americans to get back to work and fill our great downtowns again. People working from home can feel safe to begin to return to the office.”

Those are President Joe Biden’s words from State of the Union three weeks ago, but the message apparently has not reached U.S. Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) She is one of a handful of senators still keeping her Washington, D.C. office closed to the public.

The Granite State junior senator’s closed doors were first spotted by the Washington Free Beacon, which posted a photo of Hassan’s locked office in the Hart Senate Office Building.

“A Washington Free Beacon investigation after Biden’s speech found that many Democratic offices completely closed and unstaffed, with several displaying signs that they were not returning to work due to COVID-19,” it reported.

On Tuesday a New Hampshire Journal reporter called Hassan’s office and asked if the office was open. The person who answered the phone could not answer the question and had to consult a co-worker before confirming the office is closed to the general public. Visitors are allowed with an appointment only.

When asked why the staffer was unable to answer. “Those are just the office policies that we have, I don’t have answers as to why.”

The reporter was transferred to a staffer who only identified herself as “Emily” and refused to answer why Hassan’s office is still closed to the public.

“The policy is that you need an appointment,” Emily said. When asked why, she replied, “Because we only accept appointments.”

That is a very different policy from Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) where, according to Communications Director Kevin Bishop, “Our offices in D.C. and South Carolina are open. We are all here. We meet with constituents every day.”

And the Free Beacon reporter Matthew Foldi, who walked through legislative office buildings said he had no problem walking the halls and taking camera photos of congressional office doors. “The Hart Building was open. Joe Manchin’s office, for example, was fully staffed when I walked by.”

While Hassan’s staffers refused to answer the question, her fellow Democrats who are also keeping their offices closed to the public say it is in response to fears of COVID.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) has his desk unstaffed and office closed, and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) has a sign outside his shuttered office saying it is closed because of the pandemic, according to the Free Beacon.

“In an effort to prevent the spread of germs and bacteria, Sen. Sanders’ foot office is closed to the public,” the sign reads.

Hassan keeps several offices in New Hampshire, in Manchester, Nashua, Concord, Portsmouth, and Berlin. None of these offices have public hours listed, and the phone numbers go straight to the same voicemail. Hassan’s press team did not respond to an email asking questions about the New Hampshire offices.

Thanks to Biden’s plummeting poll numbers, Hassan is facing a tough re-election environment next year. The closed offices and refusal to respond to basic media requests could feed her opponents’ narrative that she is an absentee U.S. Senator who avoids difficult questions.

“Hidin’ Hassan,” tweeted an RNC spokesperson in response to the Free Beacon story.

GOP challenger Kevin Smith is already raising the issue.

“As (Londonderry) town manager, I ordered all employees back and re-opened town hall in June 2020,” Smith said. “As your next U.S. Senator, this office will be open again to serve the people.”

Another Republican candidate, state Sen. Chuck Morse (R-Salem), said Hassan’s decision to close shop shows she is unable to fight for New Hampshire.

“Maggie Hassan’s continued decision to keep her Senate office closed highlights her inability to fight for New Hampshire and our 603 Way,” Morse said. “Make no mistake – when I’m in the United States Senate we will keep our office open, and I’ll never stop serving my constituents.”

And retired Gen. Don Bolduc, also running for U.S. Senate, said: “If leftists like Maggie Hassan had their way, we would be locked down forever. It’s long past time we all learned to live with the pandemic and get back to life as normal, especially politicians who are paid by taxpayer money. If Senator Hassan doesn’t want to show up and do her job, the people of New Hampshire will replace her with someone who will.”

Smith previously accused Hassan of being an “absent senator,” claiming she was not available when Londonderry navigated the pandemic.

“We heard many times from Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. We didn’t hear once from Maggie Hassan in two years, asking about how Londonderry was doing during the pandemic,” Smith said.

Hassan disputes that, telling WMUR she was in frequent contact with people all over the state, including some in Londonderry.

“I had roundtables and was in constant contact with municipal leaders, mayors, and town managers across the state. Sometimes those roundtables included people from Londonderry,” she said.

But not, apparently, in her office.

Londonderry Town Manager Kevin Smith formally tendered his resignation to Town Council Monday night and announced he intends to officially enter the GOP primary for U.S. Senate.

“After a considerable amount of thought and deep reflection over the last month or so, this evening I am tendering my resignation as town manager, effective March 11th,” Smith said. “As it has been speculated in various media outlets over the last few weeks, it is my intent to formally announce my candidacy for the United States Senate in the not too distant future.”

Smith’s move comes just a day after state Senate President Chuck Morse announced he is forming a committee and intends to enter the race shortly as well. NHGOP insiders say both candidates have the potential to defeat first-term incumbent Sen. Maggie Hassan, particularly in the pro-GOP political environment that is taking shape.

Smith, 44, has been serving as Londonderry town manager since 2013, after losing the GOP gubernatorial primary to Ovide Lamontagne — who would go on to lose to Hassan in the general election. Before that, Smith was a state representative from 1996 to 1998 and later ran Cornerstone Action, a conservative advocacy group.

While Morse has proven fundraising chops and is a respected member of the state’s Republican establishment, Smith has both connections to the grassroots and a story his supporters believe will appeal to voters frustrated by the current state of politics.

Gen. Don Bolduc is already in the GOP primary, but his public attacks on Gov. Chris Sununu based on fringe conspiracy theories and inability to raise money have left many believing he is not a viable candidate.

Democrats clearly have their eye on Smith, however. Within minutes of his announcement, the state Democratic Party tweeted: “Kevin Smith is a well-known extremist and one of the leading opponents of women’s reproductive freedom in N.H. With Smith about to get into the race, the Republican primary will only get more chaotic, more messy, and more extreme. Good luck!”

Smith is a former staffer for both GOP U.S. Senator Bob Smith (no relation) and Gov. Craig Benson. In 2017, Sununu appointed Smith to the board of directors of Pease Development Authority.

Smith is married and has three children. And, he told the town council Monday night, he plans to continue to announce the Londonderry High football games.

“The words ‘thank you’ seem so insufficient for taking a chance on me almost nine years ago to be your town manager,” Smith said. “What I stated to you then at the end of my interview still holds true today and even more so: ‘I love Londonderry.'”

For months, Gov. Chris Sununu kept the NHGOP frozen in place as it awaited what many had thought was his certain decision to enter the 2022 U.S. Senate race. Instead, he announced he will seek a fourth term as governor, which sent Granite State Republicans scrambling.

For the first few days, the rumor mill revolved around the “usual suspects” of potential Senate candidates, namely a trio of former U.S. senators. But Kelly Ayotte, Scott Brown, and Judd Gregg all said they’re not entering the race.

Now a new list is emerging — one that is almost certain to grow in the coming days — of potential Republican candidates. NHJournal asked 10 Republican strategists, officeholders, and activists to give their impressions by ranking the possible candidates in order of their strength. We also asked for a comment or two about the would-be contenders.

To foster brutal, intra-party honesty, NHJournal is not disclosing the names of the GOP panelists who participated.

We will be updating this list as events warrant, but here are the first NHJournal GOP Senate Primary Power Rankings:

The NHJournal GOP U.S. Senate Primary Power Rankings

1. State Sen. Chuck Morse
2. Londonderry Town Manager Kevin Smith
3. Commissioner of Education Frank Edelbut
4. Matt Mowers
5. Rich Ashooh
6. Bill Binnie
7. Phil Taub
8. Corky Messner
9. Tom Moulton
10. Jeff Cozzens
11. Former congressman Frank Guinta
12. Ret. General Don Bolduc

TOP TIER:

Senator Chuck Morse: Senate President Morse made the top three of all but one of the GOP panelists’ rankings. The consensus is he’s the “safe” pick for New Hampshire Republicans.

On the plus side, “Morse is the most likely to run on the Sununu accomplishments platform, which the polls show is a winner,” one Republican noted. On the less-than-plus side, “every time he has tried to go beyond Salem he flops,” said another. “Highly credible, but not really known outside of Concord and Salem.”

Londonderry Town Manager Kevin Smith: In what must be a surprise to nearly everyone — including Kevin Smith himself– the Londonderry town manager’s name also appeared near the top of nearly every list.

Smith hasn’t run for office since losing the GOP primary for governor in 2012, which the panelists viewed as both a strength and a weakness: Lower name ID, but also a harder target for the Hassan campaign to hit. “A star just waiting for the right moment to shine. He has a great economic development record. And he scares Democrats,” one panelist said. But another noted that, while “he’s young and ambitious, smart and well-spoken. — what has he done lately?”

Commissioner of Education Frank Edelblut: The Commissioner of Education and one-time gubernatorial candidate has made no secret of the fact that he has political ambitions. And as many of the panelists noted, Edelblut would start with the most inspired, motivated base. He would likely own the Trump/conservative lane in a primary, and that’s a pretty big lane.

But, as one panelist asked, “Has he drunk the Kool-Aid? Is it too close to the ReOpenNH crowd?” Another commented: “Edelblut owns the number one issue of the moment — education. But he snuck up on everyone in 2016. That won’t happen again.”

SECOND TIER:

Matt Mowers: Mowers is in the second tier largely because most of the panelists believe he’s going to hold onto his front-runner status in the First Congressional District GOP primary rather than risk a U.S. Senate race. “Unless one of the other candidates catches fire, he has a clear path to win the primary for CD1 and become the next Republican congressman from New Hampshire.”

Rich Ashooh: “People like him, which is why he’s near the top of the list” summarizes one view of Ashooh. “He’s conservative and he gets along with everyone.” But sources inside Trumpworld NH say Ashooh’s a non-starter for some because they believe he was less-than-loyal to the president in whose administration he served. “He worked for Trump, but his instincts are all Warren Rudman. Those days are over for the GOP.”

Bill Binnie: Anyone who can write a check for $25 million to kick-start his campaign is going to be taken seriously. And while the media magnate’s 2010 race may not have gone well (“disastrous,” one panelist calls it), that was 12 years ago. And another added: “He’s got a great story — business built from scratch, a former race car driver, it’s great. But he told it once before and it didn’t work. What’s changed?”

Phil Taub: The most volatile name on the list. Some insiders had him near the very top, others nearly at the bottom. The consensus is his fundraising is appreciated, as is his work on behalf of veterans. But he’s also described as “a moderate who endorsed Jeanne Shaheen in 2014.”

Corky Messner: He’s got millions of dollars in name ID left from his 2020 bid, and he’s been working both hard and smart for the NHGOP since losing to Sen. Jeanne Shaheen last year. However, he did lose badly and the general consensus is being the guy in front of the camera, as opposed to working for the GOP backstage, may not be his skill set.

UNKNOWNS:

Tom Moulton (NOTE: On 11/16, Moulton announced he’s not considering a run): He was the University of New Hampshire’s Entrepreneur of the Year in 2021 and he owns a successful company, Other than that, most of the political insiders put Moulton down as a TBD.

Jeff Cozzens: Jeff Cozzens got a lot of buzz when he entered the GOP primary for Second Congressional District and Gov. Chris Sununu promptly tweeted out his encouragement for the Littleton brewery owner’s candidacy. There are rumors the governor would be happy to see Cozzens switch and run for the Senate, and strategists say he’s got a great story to tell. But most of the panelists put him in the “wait and see” category.

BOTTOM TIER:

Former Congressman Frank Guinta: Lots of talk that former Congressman Frank Guinta is looking seriously at a run. Not a lot of talk that it’s a good idea. “A retread who lost his last race while being called a ‘Damned Liar’ on the front page of the Union Leader isn’t the answer,” said one panelist. Another added: “He’s been a D.C. lobbyist since leaving office – you can’t drain the swamp when you’ve planted your roots in it

Ret. General Don Bolduc: Phenomenal bio, horrible candidate. Short an endorsement from Trump — which is always a possibility — Bolduc’s candidacy is already over. Calling the most popular Republican in the state, Gov. Chris Sununu, a “Communist Chinese sympathizer” isn’t widely viewed as a winning strategy. One panelist called him “one of the worst candidates for major office our state has ever seen.” Plus, as one panelist put it, “He already lost to a guy named ‘Corky'”