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The latest New Hampshire Journal poll finds that most Granite State voters believe the pain caused by the government shutdown outweighs the potential benefit of President Trump’s border wall.

When asked, “Do you believe the government shut down is worth the cost to government workers if it results in significant funding for a border barrier?,” 57.6 percent of New Hampshire registered voters said funding a border barrier was not worth the cost of the shutdown, while 35.8 percent said it was.  Another 6.6 percent were not sure.

The partisan divide on the shutdown vs. border question is wide, with 93 percent of Democrats saying no and 83 percent of Republicans supporting President Trump’s position. Unaffiliated voters, the largest group in the state, believe the shutdown isn’t worth the cost by a 65 to 23 percent margin.

Young Granite State voters were the most likely to reject the shutdown as an acceptable price for a border barrier, with just 25 percent of 18-30 year olds supporting it and 69 percent opposed. This is not good news for a GOP already struggling to attract Millennial and Gen Z voters.

“New Hampshire may be a purple state, but voters here are solidly against President Trump’s government-shutdown strategy. Such a wide gap in support from a state the president nearly carried just two years ago is not good news for the president or his agenda,” said Shawn McCoy, a former GOP campaign strategist who now serves as publisher of New Hampshire Journal.

The actual question and results:

Additional results from the latest NHJournal poll, including the president’s approval rating and results of head-to-head match-ups with potential Democrats, will be released soon.

The poll was conducted for NHJournal by Praecones Analytica between January 16-21. Survey results are based on a statewide sample of 593 registered voters in New Hampshire. Responses were gathered using both interactive voice response (IVR) landline calls as well as online surveys.

The margin of error for the entire sample is +/- 4.0%.

Or Biden-Baker (as in MA Gov. Charlie)? Or Beto and Ben Sasse? Or even a Trump-Tulsi Gabbard 2020 campaign? (Sorry, Mike Pence.)

That’s the argument the organization Unite America is making, and they believe a new poll of voters in First-in-the-Nation New Hampshire backs their claim.  According to their data, 61 percent of New Hampshire voters would like to see their party’s nominee reach across the aisle for a running mate.  “We found support among 67% of Democrats, 65% of independents, and 51% of Republicans,” they report.

America’s 2020 Presidential ticket?

The specific question: “How supportive would you be if your preferred presidential candidate chose a running mate of the opposite party to create a ‘Unity ticket’ for president and vice-president that could unite our divided country?”

Unite America’s mission to to lower the level of bipartisan rancor in America which, they believe, is undermining the health of our democracy. Nationally, they claim 43 Unite chapters, plus $3.5 million raised and 8 million votes for their candidates in November’s election. “In 2018, we saw the rise of a new movement in our politics that brought together an intellectual foundation, electoral infrastructure, national awareness, and a community of candidates, activists, and donors,” Unite America says in a statement.

Their poll also found that a majority of New Hampshire voters are open to supporting an independent presidential candidate in 2020 (56%) –– including 42% of Republicans, 58% of Democrats, and 68% of independents. These numbers don’t impress political pros, who know that while people say they’re open to an independent in theory, they tend to go straight back to their partisan corner once the campaign fighting starts.

Former Governors John Hickenlooper (D-CO) and John Kasich (R-OH)

In an op-ed at USA Today, Nick Troiano (former independent congressional candidate from Denver) and  Charles Wheelan (lecturer in public policy at Dartmouth College) write:

“Here’s one plausible scenario: former Republican governor John Kasich of Ohio and former Democratic governor John Hickenlooper of Colorado could both run through their party’s primaries with the intent of selecting the other as vice president should they win — an idea they have already flirted with.”

But is  this scenario truly “plausible?” Unite America’s own poll finds that only 39 percent of Americans feel left out or unrepresented by the current political parties. And, they report, “among those who feel politically homeless include 52% of independents, 44% of Republicans, and 17% of Democrats.” [emphasis added]

To many Republicans, a call for “bipartisanship” sounds more like an attempt to split their party along conservative/moderate lines. If fewer than one in five Democrats are dissatisfied, why would they abandon their party rather than embrace total victory over what they perceive as the party of Trump?

In a year when Democratic primary voters are questioning whether lifelong Democrat Joe Biden is sufficiently partisan,  would it really be a winning strategy in the POTUS primary to even hint that you’re thinking of putting any Republican a heartbeat away from the presidency.

There’s a word for politicians in 2019 who bet their careers on bipartisanship: EX-politicians.

Just ask CNN’s newest pundit, John Kasich.

The trend of economic overachievement for the Granite State continues as the data-oriented website WalletHub ranks New Hampshire the fourth best place to retire in the US. That’s good news for both the seniors looking for a quality place to retire and  the taxpayers of the Granite State.

In addition to ranking fourth over all, New Hampshire also ranks:

• #18 – WalletHub ‘Taxpayer’ Ranking
• #9 – Elderly-Friendly Labor Market
• #9 – % of Population Aged 65 & Older
• #1 – Property-Crime Rate
• #9 – Life Expectancy

“New Hampshire is a great place for older people and retirees to live, and this report confirms that fact yet again,” says Todd Fahey, State Director of AARP New Hampshire. “While the New Hampshire story is bigger than any one survey or set of measurements, this does underscore how good we already are and how great we could be.”

And “great” is the right word when it comes to the impact of these retirees on the state’s economy.  Americans 55 and older tend to be wealthier and do a disproportionate amount of spending.

Americans 55 and older are far wealthier, on average, than younger Americans. In a nation where the median household net worth is $68,828, Americans 65-69 years old have a median household net worth of $194,226.

And they spend it, too–at least compared to their fellow Americans.  Though they represent less than 30 percent of the population, in the first quarter of 2017,  Americans 55 and older accounted for 41.6% of consumer spending nationwide, according to government and Moody’s data.   That’s good new for New Hampshire-based retailers and consumer-goods businesses, and the benefits don’t end there.

According to a 2014 report by the Corporation for National and Community Service, “more than 20.7 million older adults –quarter of those 55 and older – contributed more than 3.3 billion hours of service in their communities. Based on the Independent Sector’s estimate of the average value of a volunteer hour, the yearly economic benefit of this service to the nation is valued at $75 billion.”  And with such a high retiree population, New Hampshire gets a disproportionate amount of the benefit. In fact, seniors/retirees are part of the reason New Hampshire is in the top 10 for “Most Charitable States,” too.

However, Fahey says there is still more New Hampshire could do to make the state even more attractive to seniors.  His list includes:

• Increased funding in this budget cycle for in-home services and related home and community-based funding;
• Creating an elder-friendly labor market;
• Enacting some form of paid family leave in New Hampshire;
• Attracting and retaining a robust and multi-generational direct care workforce.

If you’re watching Fox and Friends tomorrow (Friday) morning, you may see the new ad from  Defending Democracy Together, a Republican advocacy organization founded by Bill Kristol, urging the NHGOP to maintain its neutral stance in any 2020 GOP POTUS primary.

“There has been chatter among New Hampshire Republicans calling for the elimination of the party’s neutrality requirement before presidential primaries, which would allow the state party to endorse President Trump against a potential primary challenger. A discussion is expected at the meeting at the end of the month,” the organization warns.

“We are running a commercial today and Friday during Fox and Friends in the Manchester media market urging the RNC not to rig the primary in Trump’s favor,” the organization said in a statement.

The original supporters of an NHGOP rule change, Rep. Fred Doucette and Windham, NH selectman Bruce Breton, told NHJournal last week they have no plans to present a proposal to change the party bylaws and allow NHGOP officials to publicly endorse candidates in party primaries. They didn’t submit such a change by the state party deadline that passed the first week in January.

Bill Kristol tells NHJournal that’s good news, but Defending Democracy Together is running the ad to bolster the idea of a wide-open primary as pressure from the Trump organization on GOP institutions rises.  He also notes that other states like South Carolina, along with the RNC don’t seem as dedicated to the tradition of open primaries as the Granite State.

“I feel much better about New Hampshire, actually,” Kristol said. “I’m confident the Republicans in New Hampshire–the home of the First In The Nation primary–aren’t going to let themselves be pushed around by Trump apparatchiks.”

Every quarter the polling firm Morning Consult releases a ranking of the most/least popular governors in the U.S.  Today they released their numbers for Q4 of 2018–when the midterm elections took place. And for the third quarter in a row, New Hampshire’s Gov. Chris Sununu is the fourth most popular governor in the country, with an approval rating of 60 percent and a disapproval of just 23 percent.

Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker also remains the most popular governor in America (72/14 percent) and nine of the 10 most popular governors in the U.S. are Republicans, despite the #BlueWave that crashed over American politics in November.

Gov. Sununu’s 60 percent approval is significantly higher than all four governors considering a 2020 POTUS bid:  Democrats John Hickenlooper of Colorado, Jay Inslee of Washington and Bullock of Montana; and Republican John Kasich of Ohio.

It’s also higher than Sununu’s own 53 percent of the vote in November’s election against a weak Democratic nominee, former state senator Molly Kelly. That’s not necessarily surprising–an approval poll doesn’t ask respondents to pick sides–but it is likely to renew the conversation NH Republicans are having off the record for weeks:

Why didn’t Chris Sununu cruise to victory?

Just south of the border in an even more deeply-blue state, Republican Baker won his re-election bid 67-33 percent–a two-to-one margin. Next door in Vermont, Republican Phil Scott–who upset his GOP base by flip-flopping on a gun-control promise– won re-election by 15 points. Even Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, a GOP governor who had to run in a state that’s part of the Washington, DC media market– won handily, 56-44 percent.

“There’s no reason [Molly Kelly] should have been so close. And there’s no excuse for fundraising parity by a weak candidate like Kelly with an incumbent governor,” one longtime NH GOP insider told NHJournal.

Still,  the Democrat-controlled NH legislature has a formidable opponent in an incumbent governor with veto power and one of the highest popularity ratings in the country.  Democrats may want to raise taxes and increase business regulations, but getting that agenda past Gov. Chris Sununu is going to be an uphill battle.

Reports of Donald Trump’s demise have been greatly slightly exaggerated. At least in the Granite State.

In the newest state-by-state polling from Morning Consult, the president’s approval is just one-point shy of his all-time New Hampshire high, and his overall approval is the best it’s been since May of 2017. And while Trump is still underwater with Granite State voters, he has managed to make up more than half that gap in just three months.

When Trump was first sworn in, his New Hampshire poll number’s were 45 percent approve, 44 percent disapprove–the only time in the past two years he’s been above water with Granite Staters in the Morning Consult monthly polling.  In fact, in the fall of 2017 Trump fell underwater by a whopping -19 percent and as recently as this past September, he was underwater by -17 percent.

But in just three months, President Trump has gotten his approval rating back up to 44 percent approve/52 percent disapprove,  and he has cut his negative approval margin to -8 points.  Not great, but his margin is better than President Obama’s in October of 2011, for example (-12), though Obama was at -3 in New Hampshire around this point in his first term.

“Armchair political analysts love to talk about Trump being a one-term President because he is unpopular. This shows his numbers continue to rise and he will very likely be in the same spot Obama was when he began his re-election,” says longtime NH GOP strategist Mike Dennehy.  “Bottom line: anyone who counts out Donald Trump and ignores his ability as a candidate does so at their own risk of looking foolish.”

While New England remains America’s most deep-blue region (the six states have a total of ONE Republican in Congress–Sen. Susan Collins of Maine), there’s an interesting geographic divide: In Maine (45/51 percent) and New Hampshire, Trump’s numbers are at or above his national average of 44/52 percent; but in the other four states, Trump’s numbers are far lower.  Massachusetts and Vermont are tied with California as the states with the lowest Trump approval rating (33 percent), with Connecticut and Rhode Island at a dismal 38 percent.

(DC isn’t a state and is also in a league of its own when it comes to Trump hatred. His December numbers in the District are an abysmal 17 percent approve/79 percent disapprove.)

Meanwhile, Morning Consult also found an 84 percent approval rating among GOP voters, which makes a serious primary challenge very difficult to mount.   The NHGOP is certainly on board: “As our economy continues to soar and as Democrats continue to move further and further to the left, with talk of 70% and higher tax rates, Granite Staters will further support President Trump and the Republicans who have delivered such a strong economy,” says NHGOP Comms Director Joe Sweeney.

Sen. Lou D’Allesandro tells NHJournal that his Democratic colleagues in the New Hampshire House need to abandon their dreams of a tax hike.

“We are not raising taxes, period,” the veteran state senator told NHJournal. “We are just going to hold them in place. That’s all.”

D’Allesandro was responding to questions about Gov. Chris Sununu’s inaugural address, in particular the governor’s call for the Democrat-controlled legislature to avoid tax increases. “I implore this legislature to learn from the mistakes of the past. The last thing we should be doing is raising taxes or pushing a budget that does not live within our means,” Sununu said.

Last year NH Senate Democrats released their “Granite State Opportunity Plan” which deplores “tax breaks for corporate special interests.” Sen. D’Allesandro’s proposal is to freeze the business profits tax rate at 7.9 percent. This would technically be a tax hike given that the rate fell to 7.7 percent on New Year’s Day.  D’Allesandro would also keep the business enterprise tax at 0.675 percent, ending scheduled future tax cuts.

Progressives in the House, however, want a true tax increase. According to New Hampshire Business Journal, House Ways and Means chair Rep. Susan Almy (D-Lebanon) wants to raise the business profits tax back to 8.5 percent, with the potential of going even higher.  And according to Speaker Shurtleff, Rep. Almy is “on the right track.”

That track will have to get past Sen. D’Allesandro and the governor’s veto, however. “We’re not raising taxes in the Senate,” D’Allesandro said. “The House, they’re on the other side of the wall. And it’s a big, beautiful wall, too!”

And what did the senator think of the rest of Gov. Sununu’s speech?

“It was too long,” he told NHJournal. “Short on substance, good on anecdotes. That’s Governor Sununu.”

The most memorable thing about Gov. John Chris Sununu’s second inaugural address (other than Speaker Shurtleff’s gaffe) was how much fun the governor had giving it.  It’s the defining aspect of the Sununu style of governance:  In a time of seemingly non-stop political anger and partisan anguish, Chris Sununu is having a great time.

A little too great, based on the 60+ minutes run time. (“This was 20 minutes when I read it at home last night,” Sununu assured the assembled). Still, by peppering the speech with personal stories and anecdotes– along with classic Sununu self-deprecation–the governor kept things moving. And any speech that can work in quotes from Harry Potter and Adam Sandler can’t be all bad.

Most of the speech was spent cheerleading–another Sununu staple. He celebrated the state’s economy, the previous work of the legislature, the efforts of healthcare and public safety employees, the life of George H. W. Bush, his wife’s charity work with Bridges House, etc.

If Gov. Sununu’s speech had a soundtrack, it would have been “Everything Is Awesome” from The Lego Movie.

But everything isn’t quite awesome, as the governor acknowledged, as he spoke about suicide rates in a way that echoed the discussion of opioid addiction a few years ago. He also talked about the ongoing drug abuse issue, the “hub and spoke” approach, and lingering concerns about the performance of DCYF, etc.

Not surprisingly for a Republican governor who must work with a Democratic-controlled legislature, Sununu avoided partisanship. In fact, the words “Republican” and “Democrat” appear but once in his prepared remarks:

“Whether you are a Republican or Democrat, Independent or Libertarian — we all share a passion for making our communities the strongest they can be.”

But that doesn’t mean Sununu avoided partisan politics. New Hampshire Democrats haven’t been shy talking about the tax increases that are part of their “Granite State Opportunity Plan.”  Though the Democrats in the House and Senate haven’t come together on a single approach, they all involve at a minimum taking away tax reductions scheduled for the future, if not raising tax rates on businesses outright.

Gov Sununu didn’t pick any fights from the podium, but he was very clear:

“Look at the data. Revenues are rising. Costly regulations have been eliminated, and we are investing surplus funds into smart one-time investments.
 
I implore this legislature to learn from the mistakes of the past.  The last thing we should be doing is raising taxes or pushing a budget that does not live within our means.  And it should go without saying -There will be no sales or income tax of any kind on my watch.”

Sununu also used that rarely-heard word in energy-policy debates: “ratepayer.”

“I have always said we should view energy policy through the lens of the ratepayer.  And I hear a lot of talk from legislators that say YES, they will fight for lower electric rates, but then vote for legislation that raises rates and burden our citizens.  You can’t have it both ways.”

The irony is that Sununu has his own “both ways” policy on energy, calling for continued subsides of inefficient/expensive wind/solar, but targeted to benefit low-income residents.

“The Office of Strategic Initiatives and Public Utility Commission are currently working out a plan for the multi-million-dollar Clean Energy Fund which is being made available this year.  I want to see renewable energy projects for low income families and communities to be a priority for those investment dollars.”

Not exactly the policy of a full-throated free marketer, but a politically-smart position for a Republican who just survived a #BlueWave in a purple state and doesn’t want to lose a job he loves.

[To read Gov. Sununu’s entire prepared text, click here.]

On their first day in session, New Hampshire House Democrats voted in lockstep to ban members from bringing “deadly weapons”–aka “firearms”– into the House chamber, overturning a pro-gun policy passed by a GOP majority four years ago. While pro-2A protesters filled the gallery and Republicans like Rep. Al Baldasaro (R-Londonderry) gave fiery speeches from the floor, Democrats said little, often declining to even answer questions.  Instead, they let their votes do the talking.

Democrats voted 220 to 163 for the gun ban, with the support of virtually every Democrat in attendance. (The House has a 233/167 split.)   An earlier motion to table the rule change failed by a nearly-identical margin, 221-164, with just three Democrats (Jeff Goley, Mark King and Peter Leishman) voting with the GOP to set the measure aside.

“This body has committed a grievous error that violates the constitutional rights of members of this historic body,” House Minority Leader Dick Hinch (R-Merrimack) said from the floor.

“This is simply a matter of public safety,” House Majority Leader Doug Ley (D-Jaffrey) said in a statement after the vote. “Allowing lawmakers and members of the public to bring their guns to the State House clearing increases the potential for an avertable tragic event. The amendment passed today restores common sense to our practices in the legislature.”

Perhaps more telling was this tweet from NH Democratic Party chair Ray Buckley several hours before the vote was even taken:

The outcome of the vote was hardly a surprise, but Buckley’s confidence is worth noting.  Holding virtually the entire caucus on an issue like gun rights–which are relatively popular in some of the traditionally-GOP seats Democrats picked up in November’s blue wave–is a sign of party unity that should concern the NHGOP.   Particularly given their own failure to unify behind several of Gov. Chris Sununu’s key issues when they had the majority last year, like fighting internet sales taxes and vetoing subsidies to biomass.

“But remember, Republicans were united today, too,” Stephen Stepanek told NHJournal after the vote. “We stuck together as a block, something we’ve got to continue to do in 2019.”  Stepanek, who is the front-runner to become the next chairman of the NHGOP, acknowledges that Republicans didn’t come through for Gov. Sununu and their own party last year.

“But I believe Republican legislators will stick together this session,” Stepanek said. “They have to. We need to stay together so voters can see the differences between Republicans and Democrats, so they can see that Democrats are chipping away at our basic rights, like the right to keep and bear arms.” Stepanek, a former House member himselfe, said that if elected chairman, he would use his position to promote party unity among the notoriously unruly members of the House GOP.

“If Republicans stick together, the Democrats will give us issues to run on –and win back the legislature with–in 2020,” Stepanek said. “Democrats are going to do stupid things.  They can’t help themselves.”

But is keeping legislators from carrying guns on the House floor really one of those “stupid things?” Do New Hampshire voters, who tell pollsters they support gun control measures like banning so-called “assault weapons” and limiting the size of gun magazines, really care about the right to legislate while armed?

“Anyone who says ‘I’m pro-Second-Amendment, but…’ isn’t really pro-2A,” a protester named Scott told NHJournal outside the House chamber. He declined to give his last name, was wearing a handgun on his belt a waved a sign reading “Ban Idiots, Not Guns.”

According to Joe Sweeney, spokesperson for the NHGOP, the party highlighted Wednesday’s vote to alert gun-rights advocates about the Democrats’ larger anti-gun agenda for the coming session.

“It’s a slippery slope,” he told NHJournal. “If you have members who will vote to take away rights from their fellow members of the House, who else will they vote to take away rights from? Today is mobilizing our people to be ready to fight in a month or so when more anti-gun bills come out.”

“This is the first day of a long two years,” Sweeney said.