For years, Granite State Democrats have opposed moving up New Hampshire’s last-in-nation state primary date. The current calendar gives newly chosen nominees who win their mid-September primary less than 60 days to rebuild party unity and re-stock their fundraising war chest.

And for years, New Hampshire Democrats have denied that their opposition had anything to do with partisan politics. Until now.

“The existing primary is an incumbent protection plan, I couldn’t agree more,” state Rep. Kris Schultz (D-Concord) said during testimony before the House Election Law Committee last month.

Schultz is the lead sponsor of legislation moving the state primary elections (not the First in the Nation presidential contest) to the second Tuesday in June. In the past, most of Schultz’s fellow Democrats opposed the move. For example, last March, Democrats on the House Election Law Committee unanimously voted against a June primary date.

And a bill moving the primary up two weeks, to late August, was vetoed by then-Gov. Chris Sununu, who supported a June date.

But supporters say they’re feeling more optimistic that this could be the year New Hampshire finally moves its election from the back of the line and into prime primary season. Currently, 14 states, plus Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico, hold their primaries in June, more than any other month.

“It’s looking more and more like we can get this done,” said Rep. Ross Berry (R-Weare), chair of the Election Law Committee, on Wednesday. “But I won’t get my hopes up.”

Berry has been working to get the date changed for years. What’s different this year?

Politics.

New Hampshire Democrats don’t mind late primaries because Republicans are far more likely to have bruising, competitive primary battles than they are.

For example, the last time Democrats had a competitive U.S. Senate primary was in 199o, when former Sen. John Durkin took the nomination with 41 percent of the vote over Nashua Mayor Jim Donchess and Americans for Campaign Reform founder John Ruah.

In 2002, incumbent Republican Sen. Bob Smith was defeated in a GOP primary by John H. Sununu, who went on to defeat former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen in the general election.

The last time an incumbent New Hampshire Democrat holding a major office (governor, U.S. House or Senate) lost a primary was… never.

But now the math may be changing.

“Yes, incumbents enjoy an advantage. But now Democrats have failed to win the Corner Office for 10 years,” said veteran GOP strategist Dave Carney. “They realize (a spring primary) is a saner approach.”

Several Republicans who spoke to NHJournal mentioned last year’s primaries for governor. While Republican Kelly Ayotte handily dispatched former state Senate President Chuck Morse by 30 points, former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig — the Democratic establishment pick in the primary — won a much more narrow 48-42 percent victory over Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington.

Ayotte went on to win the race for the open governor’s seat, holding it for the GOP for a fifth consecutive term. Ayotte confirmed through a spokesman Wednesday that she supports the June date as well.

“Former state Democratic Party Chair Kathy Sullivan suggested that an earlier primary could have made it easier for Craig to rebound in the competitive general election against Ayotte,” National Journal reported.

Berry says Democrats should have seen it coming.

“The Democrats blocked this (date) change last year, even after I warned them it could cost them the Governor’s Office. Then Craig and Warmington got tangled up in the nastiest Democrat primary in recent memory, and Ayotte walked into the Corner Office.

“This year, the Democrats are sponsoring the change with me. I guess they learned their lesson, but maybe a year too late.”

Or perhaps right on time.

With U.S. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen retiring next year, U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas is all but certain to run to replace her. On Wednesday Pappas announced his “Grounded in Granite” 10-county tour of the state, a sign he’s looking for voters outside the First Congressional District.

Which means that inside the district, there’s almost certain to be a Democratic primary. In 2018, the last time there was an open seat, 10 Democrats faced off in the primary. Among them, Levi Sanders, son of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).

And the same day Pappas was kicking of “Grounded in Granite,” U.S. Rep. Maggie Goodlander was in Concord holding a town hall meeting — her second this month. Goodlander has let it be known she’s also considering a U.S. Senate run next year.

The result, as Sullivan told National Journal, “We’ve got two Democratic congressmembers, and if one or both of them decide to jump into the Senate race, we’re going to have three primaries going, and that’s a lot. So yeah, it might be nice to have the additional time.”

Meanwhile, Republicans could have fewer primary contests. Ayotte is unlikely to face a major GOP opponent, and if former Gov. Chris Sununu decides to jump into the U.S. Senate race, the party is expected to coalesce behind him. If he doesn’t, many in the party appear ready to back former ambassador and Massachusetts U.S. Sen. Scott Brown.

Sources tell NHJournal that Democrats in the legislature who’ve defended the late primary are getting the word that it’s time for a change. And GOP consultant Pat Hynes says that’s good news for Granite Staters in both parties.

“Moving the primary to June means campaigns will have more time to define their candidates on their terms. It takes control out of the hands of dark money groups that, under the current calendar, can swoop in with Beltway money and destroy the reputations of decent candidates in just a few weeks,” Hynes said.

“If we move the primary to June, the winners are outsider candidates, challenger candidates and — most important — the voters.”