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Disgraced former Democratic leader Jeff Woodburn is out of appeals, but he’s still trying to avoid jail time on two counts of criminal mischief, the only surviving convictions from the seven-year-old domestic violence legal saga that ended his career.

Woodburn’s attorney, Mark Sisti, is asking the court to suspend the two 30-day sentences against his client, allowing the former Senate Minority Leader to essentially go free. Sisti told NHJournal on Monday it makes no sense to jail Woodburn. But the New Hampshire Attorney General’s Office continues to pursue the punishment.

“I can assure you, no one in the state of New Hampshire is serving jail time for similar convictions,” Sisti said. “We’re talking about someone with absolutely no criminal record.”

Woodburn was contacted by NHJournal, but he referred questions to Sisti.

While the state Democratic Party has been silent on Woodburn’s case, he has the public backing of at least one former Democratic lawmaker, his current girlfriend Patty Dwyer.

“Jeff is a wonderful man who is honest, intelligent, funny, and thoughtful,” Dwyer wrote to Coos Superior Court Judge Peter Bornstein. 

Woodburn first met Dwyer when they both served as Democratic state representatives. Dwyer, a party volunteer and former teacher from Manchester, has long been a controversial Woodburn booster. Dwyer took to social media in 2021 to attack the victim after Woodburn’s first trial ended in convictions on simple assault, domestic violence, and the two criminal mischief counts. 

“The ‘lady’ is a huge liar and a thief, not to mention a SOCIOPATH!” Dwyer posted on social media. “She is an affront to woman who actually do experience domestic violence! Botton line; its the age old story of a woman scorned!” [All typos in the original.]

Dwyer’s comments attacking a domestic abuse victim did not prevent the Manchester Democratic Party from giving her the C. Arthur and Lillian Soucy Award in 2021 for her leadership in the party. The award is named for the parents of current Senate Minority Leader Donna Soucy (D-Manchester.) Soucy did not respond to a request for comment on Monday.

NHJournal reached out to North Country Democrats running in this year’s election about whether it’s time for Woodburn to simply serve his sentence after losing his appeals. None would agree to comment on the record.

In his motion opposing jail time for his client, Sisti argues Woodburn is being unfairly punished because he was in a high profile elected office. Sisti is asking for the sentence to be suspended for two years, during which Woodburn will remain on good behavior.

“He should not be disproportionately punished because of his notoriety or the media attention to this matter. He should stand on equal footing with all other N.H. citizens in a similar situation with a similar background. A sentence involving actual incarceration would be excessive and would serve no logical purpose,” Sisti wrote.

The New Hampshire Attorney General’s Office did not offer a comment other than the court motion filed in opposition to Sisti’s request for no jail time.

“The defendant’s objection should be summarily denied, as the defendant has waived any and all rights to appeal or request modification of the previously imposed sentence. Furthermore, the defendant has offered no valid basis upon which this court could grant his request,” Senior Assistant Attorney General Joshua Speicher wrote.

Sisti said the state is trying to save face in its pursuit of Woodburn after major setbacks to the prosecution ended up gutting the case.

“What have they got left after everything? After seven years, they have two minor misdemeanor convictions, and nobody got hurt on either of them,” Sisti said.

Woodburn was first charged in 2018 for allegedly abusing his then girlfriend. He was convicted in May 2021 on counts of domestic violence, simple assault, and criminal mischief after his first trial in 2021, but a later Supreme Court ruling overturned the domestic violence and simple assault charges, sending them back for a second trial. That second trial ended with a hung jury earlier this year, and New Hampshire Attorney General John Formella opted to drop the case rather than go for a third trial. 

According to court records, Woodburn bit the woman during a December 2017 argument as she was driving him back from a party. An intoxicated Woodburn demanded to be let out of the car, and planned to call a friend for a ride. When the woman reached to take his phone, he allegedly bit her hand, according to the allegations.

Woodburn argued in this year’s second trial that he was acting in self-defense when he bit the woman. 

Even with the total number of opioid-related overdoses dropping in Nashua and Manchester, the number of overdose deaths continues to rise, based on figures released Tuesday.

Nashua saw a 16 percent increase in opioid deaths in May, according to data from ambulance company American Medical Response (AMR). Manchester is holding steady at last year’s record-breaking death total.

Fentanyl fuels the crisis that is engulfing the Granite State, said Chris Stawasz with AMR.

“The high death rate per capita is attributed to synthetic fentanyl, which is now found in all types of illicit substances,” Stawasz explained. “People who are using illicit substances have no idea that what they are using contains synthetic fentanyl or how potent the synthetic fentanyl in the product is. Synthetic fentanyl can be lethal the first time you use it, knowingly or unknowingly.”

Where those drugs are coming from is not a mystery. While the bulk of the fentanyl and methamphetamines reaching New Hampshire originate in Mexico, plenty of illegal drugs are crossing the border from Canada, too.

Last month, federal agents arrested 31 people in the North County near the Canadian border who were allegedly engaged in large-scale drug trafficking. Agents seized 14 pounds of fentanyl and another two pounds of methamphetamine in the operation. 

Republican Gov. Chris Sununu has been pushing for another $1.4 million to beef up border security in New Hampshire, something Democrats have opposed. 

Sununu announced Monday that he would not run for president, but he is considering a run for an unprecedented fifth term as governor. Sununu told Drew Cline the opioid epidemic is something GOP presidential candidates who come to New Hampshire should focus on.

“I think there’s a big winning issue with mental health and opioids and drugs; we’ve made many strides here,” Sununu said.

Asked about the ongoing opioid epidemic in her city, Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig declined to respond. Craig has formed an exploratory committee for a possible run for governor next year. NHJournal also contacted her potential opponent in the Democratic primary, District 2 Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington, about the latest opioid statistics. She, too, declined to respond.

The opioid problem is serious across the state, as highlighted by AMR’s statistics from New Hampshire’s two major cities. Medics responded to 80 suspected opioid overdoses in May — 58 in Manchester and 22 in Nashua. There were 11 suspected opioid deaths in Nashua and Manchester in May;  seven deaths in Manchester and four in Nashua.

There have been 358 opioid overdoses in Nashua and Manchester through the end of May, with 53 suspected opioid overdose deaths. There were 32 in Manchester and 21 in Nashua.

In Nashua, suspected opioid overdoses are trending 17 percent lower than last year annually. However, suspected fatal opioid overdoses are trending 16 percent higher, according to AMR. Some 25 percent of all suspected opioid overdoses in Nashua this year have been fatalities.

With the American Health Care Act moving to the U.S. Senate, some New Hampshire Republicans are cheering as the bill makes its way through the legislative process. Yet, for some Trump supporters in the Granite State, especially in the North Country, they might not be too happy with its current version.

Despite still having some concerns about the AHCA, Gov. Chris Sununu said on Thursday that he was glad the bill passed the Republican-led U.S. House of Representatives.

“Failure to reform our health care system is not an option,” he said. “It is critical that we keep this conversation moving forward. My concerns with the AHCA remain firm and I expect that the United States Senate will take those concerns into consideration as they work to improve our nation’s health care system.”

Before the House passed the bill on Thursday afternoon, Sununu and 15 other governors sent a letter to House Speaker Paul Ryan reiterating their support for the Obamacare replacement and asked for states to have more flexibility when it comes to Medicaid.

It’s a similar letter Sununu signed on to earlier this year when the U.S. House tried to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act the first time. In a Friday interview with the Concord Monitor, he applauded the passage of AHCA, but said he still had issues with the current version.

“I love the idea that Congress is taking action, the president is taking action,” he said. “They’re listening to the American people and they’re moving the ball forward. In it’s current form, I still have a lot of concerns, there’s no doubt. But we are moving it forward, and more important than anything is the need to reform the health care system right now that has failed the American people.”

It’s a different tone than he had in March, when he said the first version of the bill didn’t give states flexibility and would hurt New Hampshire’s expanded Medicaid program, which had bipartisan support.

“The bill that’s been proposed in Congress gives us concerns on a lot of different levels, to be very blunt about it,” Sununu said at a March press conference. “What I’m seeing in Washington gives me a lot of pause for concern to be sure, not just on the Medicaid expansion front, because that would drastically affect New Hampshire, but just on the mandates that are coming out of it.”

As expected, all of New Hampshire’s Democratic congressional delegation is opposed to the GOP-led plan. U.S. Reps. Carol Shea-Porter and Annie Kuster voted against the bill. Critics slammed the bill for potentially making millions lose health care and making it harder for people with some pre-existing conditions to find affordable insurance.

Some Granite State health care providers say more than 100,000 low-income New Hampshire residents could be at risk of losing health coverage under the AHCA plan. New Hampshire Hospital Association President Steve Ahnen said his organization was “deeply disappointed” that the U.S. House passed the health care bill.

“This bill is a significant step backwards on the commitment to ensure coverage and we cannot support it,” he said. “We will continue to work with Congress as this bill moves over to the Senate to ensure that any final legislation to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act improves our health care system in a thoughtful and responsible way, rather than dismantling coverage for our most vulnerable residents.”

President Donald Trump campaigned aggressively on repealing Obamacare and lowering premiums. However, according to recent analysis, it appears premiums would significantly increase for older Granite Staters.

The Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation, a nonprofit focused on health care, compared premium costs under the ACA and AHCA. For New Hampshire residents aged 60 or older who make $30,000, they could see their premium costs increase by 173 percent under AHCA. However, the same analysis also says younger residents in New Hampshire would pay less under the AHCA plan.

Many critics point out that the Trump-approved health care bill would negatively impact the people who voted for him. This holds up when using Coos County as an example.

Coos County overwhelmingly voted for Trump over Democrat Hillary Clinton by 52 to 43 percent, respectively. There is a large number of residents who are aged 65 and older in the North Country and the average household income is about $42,000, according to U.S. Census Bureau data. Those residents could fare worse under the AHCA plan than under the ACA.

In a Granite State Poll released Monday by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, Trump’s approval rating in the state has remained steady at 43 percent. It’s the same rating he had in February. Republicans also still overwhelming approve of the president at 83 percent. Survey results from the North Country showed a statistically insignificant change.

It will be interesting to see over the next few months if residents in the North Country, especially those who voted for Trump, change their support. Nationally, it seems his base is sticking with him so far. Now, the U.S. Senate will now take over the AHCA bill and reports suggest the chamber will overhaul the legislation, making it different from the House version. The health care debate in Washington is far from over, leaving how it will ultimately impact New Hampshire a mystery for now.

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Pollsters were heavily criticized after the presidential election for completely missing the mark on their predictions. Across the country, they were scratching their heads, trying to figure out how they didn’t see Republican Donald Trump defeating Democratic challenger Hillary Clinton.

Even the University of New Hampshire Survey Center had to take a step back and figure out what went wrong for them. In their last Granite State Poll before the November election, they predicted an 11-point victory for Clinton. She actually won New Hampshire by four-tenths of a percentage point, 47.6 to 47.2 percent.

Their last survey also had Democrat Colin Van Ostern beating Republican Chris Sununu by 11 percent, 55 to 44 percent, for the governor’s office. Sununu beat Van Ostern by 2 percent.

For many political strategists in the state, these way-off predictions confirmed their suspicions that the UNH survey is a “bad poll.” Even WikiLeaks exposed that the Clinton campaign didn’t think much of them.

“As always, this poll doesn’t have a good history of accuracy so we need to take it with a grain of salt,” Clinton campaign manager Robby Mook wrote to Clinton about a recent UNH pre-primary poll May 5, 2015.

“The state of survey research is not static and there are a lot of technological changes and problems,” said UNH Survey Center director Andrew Smith. “We do an analysis after each election to look for biases that come into the surveys.”

Smith said he believes he found the reason why his numbers were so off during the election and he tweaked his methodology to reflect that in his most recent UNH poll released this week.

In his past polls, he would weight the sample based on age, sex, and region of the state, in addition to the number of adults and telephone lines within households.  Often pollsters will weight their samples to adjust for oversampling and undersampling of key demographics. For example, more women than men, and more older people than younger people, answer polls in the Granite State, Smith said.

Now, Smith added level of education into the mix.

“It’s a difficult variable to use and in the past it didn’t have that much political correlation when we used it, so it didn’t make a difference statistically,” he told NH Journal. “However, we saw that in this election, the percentage of people with a college education make a significant difference, and had we weighted it going into the election, we would have been dead accurate on all of the results.”

This election showed that Trump won the support of white, blue collar workers with some college education or less. He also over-performed in rural areas, while Clinton did better in more wealthy suburban areas.

Smith said he found that men with some college education, known as the Trump coalition, were not participating in the UNH surveys as much as they did when it came time to vote.

“It’s a new phenomena in New Hampshire politics,” he said. “Is it due to Trump? Probably, but it certainly made a difference in our polls. Hopefully, our methods are improved.”

The UNH Survey Center released four polls since February 10. The first one, released last Friday, was on Trump’s approval ratings in the Granite State, which found that residents are pretty divided on the president.

Forty-three percent of adults said they approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 48 percent are disapproving of his performance, and 8 percent are neutral, the poll found.

These numbers are close to the national trend. The Pew Research Center released Thursday the findings of its survey, which found 39 percent approve of his job performance, while 56 percent disapprove.

Looking at the different regions of the state, his approval rating also varies. This is where it will be interesting to keep an eye on the UNH Survey Center to see if their new weighting of education level has an impact on the data.

In the Central/Lakes, Connecticut Valley, and Manchester area, his approval ranges from 32 to 39 percent. Along the Massachusetts border, on the Seacoast, and in the North Country, his approval rating is more positive.

Credit: UNH Survey Center

“It’s not surprising anymore,” Smith said. “Democratic political strength in the central part of the state and Connecticut River Valley is still there and Republicans have been strong in Massachusetts border towns and somewhat strong in the Greater Manchester area, like in Bedford.”

Smith said he found the political dynamics of the North Country interesting because that area is becoming more Republican. For years, it used to be an area of Democratic strength due to blue collar support for Democrats with union support.

“The character and self-identification of the people in the North Country is different than the rest of the state,” he said. “They have not been doing well economically and the Democratic Party has been having difficulty holding onto these blue collar people.”

As exhibited by Trump’s win, many of these blue collar workers in New Hampshire, and in other states across the country, lent their support to the president.

“All we are seeing right now is a group of people who are quasi-Republicans, who might not have participated in politics before, or turned out greater in number, but we’ll have to see how that plays out in the next several years,” Smith said.

The other polls released this week showed that the drug crisis is still the number one issue for residents in the state, Gov. Sununu has similar approval ratings at the start of his term as his predecessors, and all of New Hampshire’s congressional delegation have positive approval ratings.

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