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New Hampshire has one of the strongest state economies in the country, with high rates of high-tech jobs, low unemployment, and a GDP growth rate that outperforms California, according to a new data analysis from WalletHub. 

The report, which looked at how each state’s economy has fared since the end of the COVID-19 pandemic recession, ranks the Granite State as the fifth-best economy in America, behind Washington state, Utah, California, and Massachusetts.

New Hampshire easily outperforms the remaining New England states, with Connecticut coming in at 25, Rhode Island at 36, Vermont at 41, and Maine trailing at number 44.

However, according to experts, New Hampshire could be headed toward a recession as runaway inflation continues to drive up the price of energy, housing, and other needs.

New Hampshire comes in second, behind Tennessee and ahead of California, when it comes to positive change in gross domestic product or GDP. It is tied for first with Utah, Nebraska, Kansas, and Minnesota for the lowest unemployment rate. It is fifth when it comes to having the highest number of immigrants with advanced educations, and is fourth in the percentage of high-tech jobs.

Gov. Chris Sununu said the overall picture is good, but warned there are negative forces outside New Hampshire’s control that could be a problem.

“We’ve taken steps over these last few years to ensure that New Hampshire’s economy remains strong,” Sununu said. “But given Washington’s inaction in combating inflation and out-of-control spending, an economic downturn is on the horizon, and we are doing everything we can at the state level to minimize the impact on our citizens.” 

One expert interviewed by WalletHub, Robert Wyllie, Assistant Professor of Political Science ad Director of Political Economy Program at Ashland University in Ohio, said the country as a whole should be concerned about a potential recession and inflation getting worse. He said we could see a return to the 1970s.

“High inflation, fueled in part by high energy prices, combined with slow growth points has drawn many comparisons to the 1970s,” Wyllie said.

A recent University of New Hampshire Carsey School of Public Policy report warned of a stagnating economy. New Hampshire’s economy needs state and federal leaders to address roadblocks that come up as the world economy tries to move past COVID.

“As the state, nation, and world hopefully emerge from the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic carnage it created, New Hampshire is, to some extent, subject to economic forces beyond its control,” the report states.

The state’s many long-term challenges include the housing shortage, the shrinking labor force, the need for childcare, and infrastructure investments.

“New Hampshire has many economic advantages that position it well as it seeks to address the challenges of wage stagnation, childcare shortages, educational inequity, an aging workforce, housing affordability, struggling families, and C- infrastructure,” the UNH report states. “It has a strong and diverse economic base from which to grow, and its workforce is well-educated. With foresight and will, New Hampshire can chart a course to a productive, prosperous economy that addresses these challenges and enhances the well-being of all who live here.”

However, New Hampshire has also repeatedly been ranked near the top of the “Freedom Index” by multiple sources, due to its low tax and low regulation environment. And that could be both a reason its economy is overperforming today and has a brighter future tomorrow.

In the Wallethub report, Vincent Gloss, assistant professor of economics at George Mason University argued that “economic freedom (i.e. lower regulation, lower taxes and lower spending, safer property rights) does not only minimize downturns associated with exogenous shocks such as a pandemic, but it also accelerates recovery. Governments should look at policies that allow firms and families more flexibility in their decisions and that means stepping back.”

Grim economic news for New Hampshire residents as inflation continues to climb, spiking to a 40-year high at 7.9 percent. And, experts say, it’s likely to get worse in the coming months — presenting a serious problem for vulnerable incumbents like Democrats Sen. Maggie Hassan and Rep. Chris Pappas.

The U.S. Labor Department released numbers Thursday showing the previous 12 months had the highest rate of inflation since 1982 as Americans deal with sky-high prices for food, gas, and basic goods.

President Biden blamed Russian President Putin.

“[T]oday’s inflation report is a reminder that Americans’ budgets are being stretched by price increases and families are starting to feel the impacts of Putin’s price hike,” Biden said in a statement

“The numbers are eye-watering, and there is more to come,” Eric Winograd, senior economist at asset management firm AllianceBernstein, told the Associated Press. “The peak in inflation will be much higher than previously thought and will arrive later than previously expected.”

In New Hampshire, gas is already more than $4 a gallon and heating oil is topping $5 a gallon. With the worst inflation still ahead, the response from members of the New Hampshire congressional enate delegation has been to continue with the status quo.

Polls show people across the nation and here in New Hampshire say their top issue is inflation. And yet as of late Thursday night, neither Hassan nor Pappas had released a statement about the new inflation numbers or any plans to address the problem. Nor did they respond to requests for comment.

[Editor’s note: Despite being taxpayer-funded public employees, the staffers at Hassan and Pappas’ offices have been instructed not to respond to media requests from NHJournal.]

Hassan did, however, post a message praising Major League Baseball for resolving a labor dispute:

In the past, both have argued that increased federal spending, like the Build Back Better proposal Pappas voted for late last year, is the best way to solve the inflation problem.

Hassan has proposed a temporary gas tax holiday as a way to deal with rising prices. That would add about $20 billion in federal debt as funds were transferred from the general fund to the highway fund.

“It would be about a $20 billion hit on the Transportation Trust Fund,” Robert Puentes, president of the Eno Center for Transportation, told Marketplace. “That’s the main source of money for fixing roads, bridges. and subways, and a gas tax holiday for the rest of the year would cut it in half, Puentes said.

And, economists note, the “spend to solve” strategy could actually make the inflation problem slightly worse.

Southern New Hampshire University’s Professor of Economics Dr. Nicole Bissessar said that while long-term federal spending does not generally increase inflation, spending with short-term benefits like relief checks and gas subsidies can alter the market and lead to higher consumer prices.

“If government spending leads to an increase in consumer demand which then will affect supply immediately (short term 1-3 months), it will affect prices,” she said.

Associate Dean of Business Dr. Zuzana Buzzell said the federal government can take action to curb the rise in inflation by going after monetary policy.

“The government and Federal Reserve should act quickly to address the rise. There needs to be a tightening on monetary policies, starting with the rise in interest rates and tapering the asset purchases. The monetary policy needs to put more weight on inflation risks in 2022. This is particularly important as commodity prices are expected to rise again in 2022,” Buzzell said.

The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates later this month in an effort to slow the inflation surge.

GOP candidates running to unseat Hassan lost little time Thursday in jumping on the inflation numbers. New Hampshire Senate President Chuck Morse (R-Salem) said inflation has been climbing since President Joe Biden took office, and Hassan has failed to act.

“Inflation is out of control and prices on everything from gas to milk to everyday purchases are skyrocketing. We need to get spending under control in DC the same way we’ve controlled it in NH. The 603 Way, not the DC Way, will get us out of this inflationary crisis,” Morse said.

Former Londonderry Town Manager Kevin Smith knocked Hassan for blaming oil company price gouging for the spike in energy prices, calling that a “conspiracy theory.”

“Granite Staters are desperate for solutions, yet Maggie Hassan instead chooses to peddle short-term gimmicks that won’t work and debunked ‘price gouging’ conspiracy theories that aren’t true,” he said.

Don Bolduc accused Hassan of being out of touch with Granite Staters who are struggling to pay their bills.

“Everyone is feeling the squeeze of inflation. Unfortunately, Sen. Maggie Hassan has been part of the political machine for so long, she’s stopped understanding the real-world problems facing Granite Staters,” he said.

According to the Associated Press, from January to February, prices for nearly every category of goods and services went up substantially. Grocery costs jumped 1.4 percent, the sharpest one-month increase since 1990, other than during a pandemic-induced price surge two years ago. The collective price of fruits and vegetables rose 2.3 percent, the largest monthly increase since 2010. Gas prices spiked 6.6 percent, and clothing, 0.7 percent.

For the 12 months ending in February, grocery prices jumped 8.6 percent, the biggest year-over-year increase since 1981, the AP reports. Gas prices are up 38 percent and housing costs have risen 4.7 percent, the largest yearly jump since 1991, according to the AP.

On Tuesday, the U.S. Labor Department announced the inflation rate hit 7 percent, the fastest pace of price hikes on Americans since 1982. But some shoppers are asking: What difference does it make when prices rise if there’s nothing in the stores to buy?

In New Hampshire and across the nation, shoppers are finding grocery store shelves that, while they aren’t empty, they are far from fully stocked. The hashtag #BareShelvesBiden has begun to take off.

Grocery store supplies are dwindling across the country as grocery store supply chains fall victim to the Omicron surge, and recent bad weather is leaving the Northeast hardest hit.

It’s not all bad news, according to Bruce Bergeron, chairman of the New Hampshire Grocers Association’s board of directors. He said the supply issues are going to hit large chains hardest in New Hampshire, as those stores rely on frequent shipments, while smaller stores are so far still able to get stock. 

“It’s a matter of scale. The smaller stores are not selling in large quantities and don’t have the same pressures,” he said.

Supply chains are suffering from a variety of problems, from lack of staffing to weather delays. Add in the latest round of COVID-19 illness and many shoppers are finding bare shelves and fewer choices.

“We’re really seeing the perfect storm,” Phil Lempert, editor of the website SupermarketGuru.com, recently told NPR.

According to Lempert, the Northeast is facing some of the worst shortages now, due in part to recent winter storms that snarled transportation routes. 

Albertsons CEO Vivek Sankaran told investors in a recent call he had anticipated supply chain issues from earlier in the pandemic would have eased by now. That expectation has been upended by the Omicron variant surge.

“We were expecting supply issues to get more resolved as we got into this period right now. Omicron has put a bit of a dent on that. There are more supply challenges and we would expect more challenges over the next four or six weeks,” Sankaran said.

Albertsons has nearly 3,000 grocery stores nationally, and the chain is not alone. Discount grocery chain Aldi, which has 2,000 stores, recently posted an apology to shoppers because supply chain problems have left it without many advertised items.

“We are experiencing shipping delays and are working around the clock to fix it. We know it is frustrating and we are sorry for any and all inconveniences,” the store stated in the apology.

The Aldi chain is relatively new to New Hampshire, with about a dozen stores opened in the Granite State in the past few years. 

Bergeron said the biggest concern for New Hampshire grocers and shoppers right now isn’t what’s in stock, but how to pay for it with the increasingly rising inflation.

“Inflation is real and it affects people’s pocketbooks. And it’s present in everything grocery stores sell,” he said. 

Skyrocketing inflation means the cost of necessary goods like food and fuel continues to rise, eating away at the recent wage increases many workers have seen. Bergeron said Granite Staters are going to likely deal with inflation for a long time to come.

“There’s no escaping that,” he said.

Bergeron noted signs of the current inflationary crunch were present for years. Home prices and wages have been climbing in New Hampshire since before the pandemic, he said, forcing up the price of everything else. 

“In my business, we started seeing this five years ago. I knew it would result in some inflation at the retail level,” he said.

As inflation started shooting up in the fall, President Joe Biden’s Federal Trade Commission responded by opening investigations into grocery store chains and suppliers, like Keene’s C&S Wholesale Grocery. C&S is the largest supplier for grocery stores nationwide. Company representative Lauren La Bruno did not respond to a request for comment.

The FTC issued orders in late November to Walmart, Amazon.com, Kroger, C&S, Associated Wholesale Grocers, McLane Co., Procter & Gamble, Tyson Foods, and Kraft Heinz Co. demanding they provide data showing how their individual supply chains have been managed since the start of the pandemic.

Most economists dismiss that effort as political theater.

“Beef, pork, and poultry all have their own supply and demand market fundamentals,” explained Meat Institute President and CEO Julie Potts. She said the real engine of higher meat prices is “rising input costs, rising fuel costs, supply chain difficulties and labor shortages that impact the price of meat on the retail shelf.”

Russ Atherton, owner of The Local Butcher, a meat processing business in Barnstead, N.H., agrees.

“Regionally, we’re coming off a year when feed prices were through the roof and the feed supply was really short,” he told NHJournal. “Fuel and grain costs are way up, too. A ton of fertilizer two years ago was $280. Now they’re forecasting the price at $1,300 this spring.

“When the input prices are going up across the board, you can’t say [meat producers] are just ripping people off,” Atherton said.

MANCHESTER — Even as polls show New Hampshire voters are unhappy with the massive federal spending currently underway in Washington, D. C., U.S. Department of Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg showed up in Manchester on Monday to push for even more. And he did so while avoiding the red-hot issue of inflation.

Buttigieg, a once and (possibly) future Democratic presidential candidate, said President Joe Biden’s $1.2 trillion infrastructure spending plan and his proposed $2 trillion in social spending — a new CBO estimate puts that closer to $5 trillion — will be positive for the average American worker.

“It’s a once-in-a-generation investment, and along with the president’s Build Back Better plan, it will create millions of good paying jobs,” Buttigieg said of the bipartisan infrastructure bill signed into law by Biden.

Buttigieg was in New Hampshire to announce a $25 million U.S. DOT grant to support a project to reconnect the South Millyard District to surrounding neighborhoods and downtown Manchester. The infrastructure improvements will mitigate existing traffic congestion, increase driver and pedestrian safety, improve a critical rail crossing and freight mobility, and provide improved and accessible transportation options for the community. 

During his Millyard presser, Buttigieg took questions from a largely friendly press. He wasn’t asked any questions about inflation — which a new NHJournal poll ranked as the voters’ top priority — or about the costs of the so-called Capitol Corridor rail project he was touting. (NHJournal was excluded from asking questions by Democratic organizers of the press event.)

All the federal spending talk hasn’t helped President Biden, whose favorable rating is down to 43 percent in the Granite State, while 57 percent of voters have an unfavorable view, the new NHJournal poll shows.

Despite that, Rep. Chris Pappas is on board with the infrastructure plan, as well as the Build Back Better plan.

“We know that the cost of doing nothing far exceeds the price tag on this bill,” Pappas said.

As part of the new Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, New Hampshire is getting at least $1.1 billion for the state’s roads, $225 million for bridges, $126 million for its public transportation, $100 million for high-speed internet, and $26 million for its airports. The infrastructure law also contains $10 billion nationwide for cleaning up drinking water that has been contaminated by per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, also known as PFAS.

The bill includes close to $100 million for New Hampshire passenger rail, all endorsed by the state’s Congressional delegation, though none of them mentioned the price tag during Monday’s event.  Sen. Maggie Hassan, who pushed hard for rail, said passenger rail will bring in employees and investment for the states.

“Passenger rail is so important,” she said.

The new line, connecting Nashua and Manchester to Lowell, Massachusetts, would cost hundreds of millions of dollars to complete, and according to at least one study would require $11 million to $15 million in subsidies from Granite Staters, like from property taxes. 

Buttigieg and the delegation also never mentioned how many people would be likely to use this new, expensive rail service. According to data from Amtrack, their seacoast region Amtrak line, the Downeaster, serviced fewer than 200 New Hampshire passengers a day during its pre-COVID-19 peak.

Granite State Republicans have been critical of the fact that, despite Hassan’s reported “lead role” in negotiating the infrastructure bill, New Hampshire came in dead last for total funding.

New Hampshire Democrats already facing an energized GOP-leaning electorate next year suffered a tough, one-two fiscal punch Friday from new reports on inflation and federal spending.

Friday morning the Labor Department reported the consumer-price index jumped to its highest rate in 39 years, rising to 6.8 percent in November. It’s the sixth consecutive month inflation was higher than 5 percent. This is a blow to Democrats like Sen. Maggie Hassan and Rep. Chris Pappas who back trillions in new federal spending and likely face serious challenges in the 2022 midterms.

Polls show most Americans believe federal spending is making inflation worse.

Hours later, a new Congressional Budget Office analysis of the Biden administration’s Build Back Better spending plan found the bill would add $2.8 trillion more to the national debt than originally projected. Despite claims by Rep. Annie Kuster that the CBO found the BBB spending plan is “fully paid for,” the agency has always said the proposal will add between $160 billion and $367 billion to the deficit.

The new $2.8 trillion figure is more realistic, economists say, because it assumes expensive spending programs like the Child Tax Credit will continue for the entire 10 years of the plan. The not-quite “fully paid for” plan is based on the dubious assumption the CTC will end after just one year.

And, as Ben Casselman of The New York Times reported, “Inflation is wiping out wage gains. Real average hourly earnings fell in November on both a month-to-month and year-to-year basis.”

All four members of New Hampshire’s federal delegation back the Biden spending plan — Kuster and Pappas have already voted for about $7 trillion in new spending this year alone. And all four declined to comment on the new inflation numbers when contacted by NHJournal.

Republicans, unsurprisingly, were more willing to respond.

“With a skyrocketing energy crisis, supply chain issues, and rampant inflation at record highs, Democrats in Washington must understand that their bad policy decisions and unchecked spending are hurting average American families,” said Gov. Chris Sununu.

“Joe Biden and the Democrats’ Build Back Broke agenda created historically high inflation, making Americans pay more for nearly everything this holiday season,” Republican National Committee (RNC) Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel said in a statement. “With skyrocketing prices at a 39-year high, a supply chain crisis, trillions in reckless spending, and tax hikes on families, Biden has lost the trust and confidence of the American people to get the economy working for them.

“Americans can thank Biden and the Democrats for the most expensive holiday season on record,” McDaniel added.

Americans aren’t waiting until Christmas to assign blame. A CNBC poll also released Friday found Biden’s approval rating is down to 41 percent approve/50 percent disapprove. On handling the economy, Biden is down to a dismal 37 percent approve while 56 percent disapprove.

More problematic for Granite State Democrats is the “generic ballot” result. Asked if they would prefer a Democrat or Republican in Congress, Americans chose Republican by a +10 margin.

“Inflation is out of control, Congress is making it worse, and the only people who haven’t figured that out work in the White House,” National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) spokesman T.W. Arrighi told NHJournal. “Democrats are causing prices on everyday goods, like gas and groceries, to skyrocket, and it’s hitting American families where it hurts. It’s not the media’s fault, it’s not transitory and it’s not a high-class problem. It’s a real-world problem for hard-working American families and now it’s a political problem for Democrats, whose entire agenda is built on inflation-inducing government spending.”

Every Democrat in the House of Representatives except Maine’s Jared Golden voted for the Build Back Better bill last month, and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) needs even more unity to get it through the U.S. Senate. He wrote a letter to members like Hassan and Sen. Jeanne Shaheen earlier this week telling them to expect long nights as he pushes to get the Biden spending bill passed by Christmas.

New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu announced a new executive order during his weekly COVID-19 press conference Wednesday allowing the Department of Health and Human Services to assist hospitals in setting up COVID surge sites within the hospital’s campus. It is part of the state’s attempt to address surging numbers of COVID-19 cases as temperatures keep falling.

“We are seeing record levels of cases, and record levels of hospitalizations,” he said. “The winter surge is rearing its ugly head as expected.”

Sununu said the idea for an in-house surge site came from the Labor Day trip New Hampshire officials took to Kentucky to see winter preparations there. 

And Sununu also had some good news: New Hampshire is getting 1 million COVID-19 at-home rapid tests through the National Institutes of Health and Amazon, the first state to take part in the new program.

“At-home tests are going to be a valuable tool,” Sununu said.

As more people will be required to take tests, especially school children, families in New Hampshire will be able to order rapid tests through the state and have them delivered to their homes via Amazon, Sununu said. New Hampshire schools are also getting tests they can hand to families in case a student comes down with symptoms and needs to be sent home. 

The state’s infection rate has soared in recent weeks, with a 7-day average of 1,014 daily cases and new 3,121 cases on Monday alone. Democrats are laying the blame at Sununu’s feet.

“It is disheartening to hear New Hampshire’s State Epidemiologist acknowledge that the Granite State is currently experiencing the highest levels of COVID since the inception of the pandemic,” House Democratic Leader Rep. Renny Cushing (D-Hampton) said in a statement released after Sununu’s presser. “Plain and simple, Gov. Sununu is failing our vaccination effort in New Hampshire.  New Hampshire has the lowest vaccination rate in New England and currently has the second-highest per-capita COVID cases in the United States, behind Michigan.

“We are in crisis,” Cushing added.

At the same time, New Hampshire still ranks number 11 in the nation for percent of its age 12+ population that is fully vaccinated — 64 percent, above the national average of 59 percent. And while cases are rising in New Hampshire, they have also shot up next door in Vermont, the state with the nation’s highest vaccination rate (73 percent fully vaccinated.)

November began with a seven-day average of 194 cases in the Green Mountain State. As of Monday, that number was up to 369 — an increase of 90 percent. And while the New England region has by far the highest rate of vaccinations, it’s also the second-highest region for new cases over the past two weeks.

Clearly, stopping the spread of COVID-19 is going to be more complicated than just urging more vaccinations.

Sununu acknowledged it’s likely the state will call up the National Guard to assist hospitals and other facilities suffering shortages in the face of rising demand for health services. “We could do it right now, and at some point, I think that need will likely be there,” Sununu said.

At the same time, Sununu doesn’t see enacting another state of emergency, or another statewide mask mandate, to deal with the pandemic. In the early days, the state did not have the resources or knowledge to fight COVID-19, and the state of emergency was necessary.

“We couldn’t even get masks and gloves, let alone testing materials,” he said. “Now, we know what to do.”

President Joe Biden is blaming Big Oil for today’s rising gas prices, causing one senator to say it is a deflection away from the real cause of the inflation.

“There are some natural things that happened in the pandemic with supply and demand, but believe me, we know the situation,” said U.S. Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) at a virtual event Wednesday hosted by the Grow America’s Infrastructure Now (GAIN) Coalition. “We’re producing less than we were before the pandemic and the demand is very high, so, he caused that, he created it.”

Biden sees things differently.

In a letter to Federal Trade Commission (FTC) Chair Lina Khan, Biden said he wanted to “call attention to the “mounting evidence of anti-consumer behavior by oil and gas companies.”

“The bottom line is this: gasoline prices at the pump remain high, even though oil and gas companies’ costs are declining,” Biden wrote. “Bring all the Commission’s tools to bear if you uncover any wrongdoing.”

Earlier this month, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm laughed during a television interview about gas prices and whether going after more domestic energy might bring relief.

“That is hilarious,” Granholm said. “As you know, of course, oil is a global market. It is controlled by a cartel. That cartel is called the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).”

It was around the same time that the Biden administration asked “that cartel” to increase production so as to help Americans with the cost of gas and home heating oil. OPEC declined.

Speaking at Wednesday’s GAIN event, Ron Ness, president of the North Dakota Petroleum Council said it was not that long ago that Americans paid no attention to OPEC.

“For the last five to seven years, as America was ramping up its oil production, we didn’t care when they met, what they said,” said Ness. “We controlled the world oil market and the American energy producers were producing more and more energy and supply was going up to meet demand.”

There has also been talk of the Biden administration tapping into the strategic petroleum reserves, something Ness says is an option always floated out during times of high gas prices.

“The American public fully understands what has led to resulted in rising gas prices, and that is rising crude oil prices,” said Ness. “What has been the cause of that? Since day one, the Biden administration has been attacking American energy producers, it has led to a decline in investment, a decline in production, and now we’re blaming OPEC when we have great technology, we do it more environmentally friendly than anyone, (and) we can and do supply the world with energy.”

Something needs to be done, Ness argued. And fast.

“Energy adds to the cost of everything we make, grow, and consume,” said Cramer, a U.S. representative from 2013 to 2019. “This issue has national security implications, it’s got economic implications, it’s got environmental and climate implications.”

OPEC requests to increase production aside, the Biden administration wants to reduce America’s dependency on fossil fuels as part of a broader effort to promote alternative energy. While his administration has openly opposed increased domestic oil and gas production, the newly-passed infrastructure bill includes $7.5 billion for electric vehicle charging stations.

“The single most important thing that’s got the attention of the world is climate,” said Biden at this year’s U.N. climate conference in Scotland.

Kramer told the GAIN event that we can go after our domestic energy sources in a more environmentally friendly way than other nations. “There are a whole bunch of things in front of us here in Congress, mainly trying to defend against the actions of this administration.”

Retired Marine Maj. Gen. James “Spider” Marks agreed. “The senator nailed it when he said he sees this through a prism of geopolitical interests among many other things,” he said at the GAIN event. “Our efforts here at GAIN really are through the filter of readiness in terms of our military community.”

Because taxpayers expect a military that is prepared to fight at any moment, Marks said the nation needs energy independence.

“We’ve learned through the COVID pandemic that we are a very connected, interconnected, interdependent world, almost to a degree of risk,” said Marks. “We have to moderate that risk, we’ve got to be able to maintain our independence.”

That, said Marks, should be the priority for this and every administration.

“American fossil fuel energy development, production, and export is the right move,” said Cramer.