The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) knows the GOP has struggled to win federal races in the Granite State, but it says 2026 could be the year it breaks the streak. And it offered some data to back it up.
“Sen. Shaheen’s retirement has set the table for New Hampshire liberals, like Reps. Chris Pappas and Maggie Goodlander, to compete for the affections of the modern Democrat coalition: ‘activists’ destroying electric vehicles, men seeking to exert their advantage over women in athletic competitions, and the Karen class cheering them on from the couch with a glass of chilled chardonnay during MSNBC prime time,” according to an April 3 memo.
That memo references a poll of 600 likely 2026 New Hampshire voters taken in mid-March. The key findings:
Republicans have a slim one-point advantage in the generic ballot;
Democrats have an “enthusiasm gap” when it comes to committing to their party’s nominee (87 percent) compared to GOP voters (92 percent);
Independent voters say they agree with the GOP agenda more than the Democrats’ issues set.
“Our internal polling data in New Hampshire demonstrates a favorable political environment for Republicans in this toss-up Senate race,” the group wrote. “Republicans are well positioned to flip this open Senate seat in New Hampshire regardless of who either party nominates.”
That is a minority view in political circles. Most analysts, like Cook Political Report, rank the seat as “leans Democrat.” And the new Cook Political PVI (Partisan Voting Index) has shifted the state toward Democrats, though it says the partisan lean is a relatively modest D+2.
The biggest factor is whether former Gov. Chris Sununu decides to reverse course and run for U.S. Senate. Multiple Republican sources say they believe it is very unlikely he decides to run, and Sununu has repeatedly said the door is only “cracked.”
Asked about the Pappas announcement Thursday morning by New Hampshire radio host Jack Heath, Sununu replied, “He still has an awful haircut. I’m actually just trying to help him. He needs a blow dryer and a little bit of styling gel. It will make a world of difference.”
Former ambassador and Massachusetts U.S. Sen. Scott Brown (R) is also considering a run. He posted his thoughts on Twitter.
“Chris Pappas talks about being grounded in ‘New Hampshire values.’ Good luck squaring that rhetoric with his record in Washington D.C., supporting wide open borders, men in women’s sports, and lying to his constituents about Joe Biden’s senility.”’
One Republican who won’t be running for Senate is Pappas’ 2022 GOP opponent, Karoline Leavitt. The White House spokesperson is popular in New Hampshire GOP circles, and she’s widely viewed as doing a good job.
However, the U.S. Constitution requires senators to be at least 30 years old. Leavitt is 27.
