This article originally appeared at JBartlett.org.
The Josiah Bartlett Center for Public Policy, in partnership with EdChoice, has released an analysis of the fiscal effects of two Education Freedom Account expansion proposals, one presented by Gov. Kelly Ayotte in her budget and the other in House Bill 115, representing the House leadership plan.
At the state level, the fiscal effects range in year 2 from a savings of $5.6 million to a cost of $5 million. At the local level, the effects range in year 2 from a savings of $21 million to $22.7 million.
The analysis covers the first two years of each proposal and looks at the fiscal effects of EFA expansion only. It does not attempt to predict the fiscal impact of natural enrollment changes in the existing EFA program.
It’s important to note that the governor’s plan takes effect a year later than the House plan, so it would have no fiscal impact in the first year of the 2026-27 budget.
Because the governor’s proposal limits expansion to students who have spent the prior year enrolled in a New Hampshire public school, it produces only savings. Every student who switches from a public school to the EFA program saves money for both state and local taxpayers. The estimated savings for the state are $2.3 million in the first year and $5.6 million in the second year. The estimated savings for local taxpayers are $8.6 million in the first year and $21 million in the second year.
Because the House plan includes students not currently enrolled in public schools, there are small additional costs for the state. Those costs are estimated at $360,000 in the first year and $5 million in the second year. Savings to local taxpayers from the House plan are estimated at $824,000 in the first year and $22.7 million in the second year.
Key findings for the two plans are as follows:
Governor’s proposal:
· In year 1, EFA expansion would generate an estimated $2.3 million in net savings for state taxpayers.
· In year 2, EFA expansion would generate an estimated $5.6 million in net savings for state taxpayers.
· The fiscal effect on local taxpayers is an estimated $8.6 million in short-run net fiscal benefits in year 1 and $21.0 million in short-run net fiscal benefits in year 2.
Universal House Plan:
· In year 1, EFA expansion would generate an estimated $360,000 in net costs for state taxpayers.
· In year 2, EFA expansion would generate an estimated $5.0 million in net costs for state taxpayers. This cost represents 0.1% of total state expenditures on all public services.
· The fiscal effect on local taxpayers is an estimated $824,000 in short-run net fiscal benefits in year 1 and $22.7 million in short-run net fiscal benefits in year 2.
Download the full report here: NH EFA Expansion Fiscal Brief Final
