Now that Democrats have made it clear Vice President Kamala Harris is going to be their presidential nominee, what does that mean for the competitive races here in New Hampshire?
The general consensus is that, however bad a candidate Harris may turn out to be, President Joe Biden was worse. As a result, it’s a net positive for Granite State Democrats.
“I think what we saw with Joe Biden was an extreme lack of enthusiasm among the Democratic base here in New Hampshire,” said Americans for Prosperity Regional Director Greg Moore. “The real question is how does Kamala Harris energize the base?”
The state’s Democratic leadership is certainly on board with a Kamala Harris coronation. All four members of the federal delegation have endorsed her candidacy, and the state’s convention delegates unilaterally declared themselves for Harris within hours of Biden leaving the race.
At the same time, Harris’ performance in the 2020 First in the Nation presidential primary was underwhelming. After soaring to 18 percent and a second-place slot in the St. Anselm College Survey Center poll in July 2019, Harris tumbled to 5 percent and the back of the pack in September. By December 3, she was out.
And that was in a Democratic primary, not the general electorate she’ll need to beat Trump this November.
A New Hampshire Journal poll taken immediately after the Republican National Convention found Harris trailing former President Donald Trump by a single point in the Granite State, 40 to 39 percent. That 39 percent isn’t a great number in a state that overwhelmingly votes Democrat at the federal level or against Trump, whose approval in the Granite State remains low.
Then again, a new Quinnipiac Poll of voters nationwide released Monday found Harris at a dismal 37 percent favorable, 51 percent unfavorable. She has consistently polled worse than both Biden and Trump over the past year.
So, what happens to candidates for governor or Congress who have to campaign for or against Harris?
Former Congressman Frank Guinta (R) represented the First Congressional District, where there’s a heated GOP primary for the chance to take on incumbent Rep. Chris Pappas.
“I think Biden on the ticket was going to suppress turnout and hurt down ballot,” Guinta told NHJournal. “Having Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket rather than Biden hurts Republicans because Democrats who were unwilling to vote for Biden due to his lack of mental acuity will now feel more comfortable voting for Harris and will turnout and vote down ballot.”
GOP consultant Mike Biundo is working with First Congressional District primary candidate Russell Prescott. He believes the policies that Harris has supported the past three years will hurt her in New Hampshire.
“Kamala Harris may change the name on the signs, but her failed agenda remains the same,” Biundo said. Having her on the ticket “does nothing but help bolster Prescott and the GOP’s chances up and down the ticket.”
“New Hampshire did not fall for her shtick the first time she came through here in the 2020 primary,” Manchester Alderman Joe Kelley Levassseur, another First Congressional District GOP primary candidate, said of Harris. “Now that everyone in the country has seen how pathetic Harris has been as vice president, our Republican ticket has an even better chance to pull off once unattainable seats all the way down the ballot.”
Granite State Democrats don’t agree. They believe Harris can unify the party and, in a state where the new NHJournal poll shows more voters want Democratic control of Washington, D.C. (41 percent) than Republican (36 percent), that’s all they need to do.
“We are back, baby!” one Democratic operative texted NHJournal after the news of Biden’s withdrawal broke.
The two Democrats seeking the governor’s office are taking a different approach regarding Harris’ candidacy. Both Joyce Craig and Cinde Warmington quickly endorsed her candidacy and posted photos of themselves with the vice president. That’s in stark contrast with Biden. Warmington had not mentioned Biden in her Twitter feed since May 30. For Craig, it was April 10.
The two Republicans running for governor say they don’t believe their race has changed.
“Whether it’s Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, or some other Democrat, Kelly is confident that President Trump will defeat them just like she will defeat Joyce, Cinde, or anyone else they throw at her in November,” Kelly Ayotte spokesman John Corbett told NHJournal.
Chuck Morse campaign manager Maya Harvey says, “Harris’ failures as border czar will hurt Democrats even more than Biden. This benefits Republicans across the board—making it easier for Chuck Morse to absolutely win the governor’s seat.”
Moore says that while Harris may outperform Biden, the fact remains that, “on numerous surveys, Trump voters are ready to vote– they are ready to vote right now.”
The new NHJournal poll found 35 percent of Granite State Democrats are more enthusiastic about voting this year compared to 2020. Among Republicans, it’s 50 percent.
Meanwhile, Democrats are still in the “meet and greet” phase of their campaign, with just over 100 days to go.
“Does Biden’s departure cost you some of your senior votes? Does that do more harm than good?” Moore asks.
Adding Harris to the ticket “may give Democrats something that’s valuable in some important swing states, I don’t know. But I don’t think that what Kamala Harris brings to the table necessarily benefits Democrats in New Hampshire.”
Nationwide, Democrats “view this move as something that’s going to improve their chances in the general election. That is based more on hope than it is on the numbers right now,” said NBC News data analyst Steve Kornacki.
Guinta’s message to Republicans is to not take anything for granted.
“Republicans need to continue the enthusiasm for the entire ticket it expressed after the Republican convention.”
New Hampshire House Majority Leader Rep. Jason Osborne (R-Auburn) said his message for Granite State voters about the Democratic ticket was simple.
“Different wrapper. Same poop sandwich. Don’t eat it, folks.”
