Republican residents of New Hampshire’s First Congressional District have been getting political mail from Walter McFarlane, a name even Granite State GOP activists don’t recognize.
And yet this Trinity High School grad who just moved back to Manchester a year ago could very well be the party’s nominee to take on incumbent Rep. Chris Pappas.
How?
McFarlane says it’s because voters want “a voice for normalcy,” someone who will “find a way to scream for the 80 percent of us who aren’t on the extremes.”
But GOP insiders say it’s because, two weeks before the primary, nobody else in the field can crack 20 percent support, and McFarlane is reportedly spending six figures on mail and TV. At least two mailers have already dropped and McFarlane told NHJournal TV ads are coming.
Is that enough for an unknown candidate this late in the race?
“Hey, I got this McFarlane guy’s mailer and I started to toss it. I’d never heard of him,” one GOP operative told NHJournal on background. “But then I realized I’ve barely heard anything from the other candidates and I figured I better take a look. Who the hell knows?”
It’s not just that polls showing about 60 percent of NH-01 Republican primary voters are undecided, campaign veterans say. It’s the fact that a similar number don’t know enough about any of the candidates to have an opinion.
The point, insiders say, isn’t that McFarlane is the favorite, or even likely, nominee. It’s that the race remains so wide open, so late, that a well-financed newcomer could potentially sweep in at the 11th hour and win the primary.
“If the 60 percent undecided number is accurate, it’s anyone’s race,” said Manchester Alderman Joe Kelly Levasseur, another Republican seeking the First District nomination. “Usually it’s the candidate that spends the most money that wins.”
Thus far, that candidate has been former Executive Councilor Russell Prescott, whose June 30 FEC filing shows he’s raised about $289,000 and loaned the campaign another $450,000.
And while it’s true Prescott led in the recent UNH Survey Center poll, he only had 19 percent support. Levasseur was in second place at 10 percent.
In the St. Anselm College Survey Center poll, Prescott barely broke double digits at 10 percent, behind leader Levasseur at 15 percent.
No other candidates — including Hollie Noveletsky and Chris Bright — broke single digits in either poll. Noveletsky reports raising more than $320,000 (with another $65,000 in loans), while Bright has raised around $85,000 and loaned his campaign another $205,000.
Noveletsky’s first TV ad hit airwaves Monday.
Prescott general consultant Michael Biundo told NHJournal that “while the only poll that matters is Election Day, the fact is that Russell is leading in the polls and has been for most of this race.
“He has over 200 endorsements from local leaders, in addition to endorsements from conservative champions like Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Congresswoman Kat Cammack (R-Fla.). He is a proven winner, and we are confident that his record as a trusted, consistent conservative will lead us to victory on Sept. 10.”
But Prescott’s display of endorsements hasn’t intimidated any of the other candidates.
“I didn’t get into the race to do anything other than win this,” McFarlane said. “That poll with 59 percent undecided speaks to what I was seeing when I made the decision to get into the race.”
Noveletsky, owner of Novel Iron Works and a military veteran, says the NH-01 race is getting neglected due to media coverage of other campaigns, including the topsy-turvy presidential race and the two gubernatorial primaries.
She also cited possible GOP voter fatigue left over from 2022.
“I also think a lot of grassroots people in CD-01 put their heart and soul into Karoline Leavitt in 2022,” Noveletsky said. “She is a terrific person and was a great candidate, and that means many are still disappointed with her loss.
“However, the Saint Anselm poll shows the generic congressional ballot in the district is still super close, so my focus is on continuing to get my message out there to let voters know that we can beat Chris Pappas. I am doing so on the campaign trail and through a media advertising campaign as well.”
Levasseur says it’s the lack of another race that’s hurting down-ballot candidates.
“I think they are still undecided because of the lack of a U.S. Senate race,” Levasseur said. “Senate races spend millions of dollars, are extremely competitive and can be nasty.
“They also start much earlier, and garner a lot more media attention. This cycle of congressional races has not drawn a lot of attention because money is hard to come by for most candidates and the media just hasn’t been giving them much attention.”
Bright, who’s also a business owner and veteran, acknowledged name ID is hard to come by.
“As the only true political outsider in this race, I never expected to raise the most money or get the most endorsements from other politicians,” he said. “We are running a grassroots campaign focused on the issues that matter most to voters.”
Gov. Chris Sununu told NHJournal the state’s Sept. 10 primary, the latest date on the U.S. primary calendar, is partially to blame for the campaigns’ struggles to capture voters’ attention. “We shouldn’t be having primaries over the summer. We should move it to June or something like that.”
But whenever Election Day falls, GOP campaign professionals say, candidates have to connect with voters. They usually do that with TV, mail, or some other media. And whatever the NH-01 Republicans have been doing, if six in 10 voters are undecided, it hasn’t worked.
Which is why McFarlane says he’s got a real shot at being the nominee.
“I wasn’t hearing a voice that spoke to me, and I think that’s what’s happening right now [with Republican primary voters] because the polls show that,” McFarlane said.
But a total unknown winning the nomination in the last two weeks?
“I have confidence the voters will not be fooled by deep-pocketed politicians who think they can buy the nomination,” said Bright.
On the other hand, said Levasseur, “This race may prove all the norms wrong. We will see.”
