A U.S. Senate race that could determine which party controls the chamber. A Republican governor hoping to take her party’s winning streak to six, but with an unpopular president at the top of the ticket. A Democratic party desperate for a candidate to challenge her.
The year 2026 promises to be a wild — and potentially record-setting — political ride in New Hampshire. With the September 8 primary still nine months away, who can see what lies ahead?
Why, the Granite State Guru, of course!
The Guru is the accumulated wisdom gathered from a dozen of New Hampshire’s smartest political insiders — strategists, grassroots activists, and PR professionals on both sides of the aisle. NHJournal has taken their candid, off-the-record insights and aggregated them into the Guru’s infallible predictions for the future!
OK, maybe not infallible. But the Guru has a strong track record of picking winners and losers in New Hampshire politics. One reason is that the Guru starts by looking to the past.
The Guru Knows What Time It Is
The first question put to the Guru is this: What previous year in New Hampshire politics does 2026 look like to you? 2006? 2018? 2022? 1976?
Some of the gurus said it’s impossible to tell because of the once-in-a-century impact of Donald Trump.
“We have never had a president with such a massive gravitational pull like Trump,” one Guru said. “Kelly Ayotte reminds me of Govs. Judd Gregg and Steve Merrill — more conservative than she appears, but not a captive of D.C. She’s likely to elude Trump’s drag in November.”
A few see a GOP disaster year looming ala 2006.
“In 2006, people were just tired of George W. Bush and the war. They were tired of hearing about it in the news all the time; it was just exhausting. Today, I think people are tired of Trump,” another said.
But for most of the gurus, the year that looms large is 2018 — Trump’s previous midterm election.
“It’s 2018: A powerful first-term GOP governor running for reelection with little opposition, but a sour national mood and diminished popularity of the president potentially puts down-ballot seats in play.”
Another said simply, “2018: Dems win in D.C, the GOP wins at home.”
With that, let the predictions begin, starting with …
THE BIG KAHUNA: U.S. Senate
Ask the Granite State Guru to look into the future and predict who the two parties’ Senate nominees will be in November, and you’ll get a clear, confident answer: U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas and former U.S. Sen. John E. Sununu.
But ask them who the next senator will be, and the future is far more murky. In fact, the Guru is evenly divided among Pappas, Sununu, and “who the hell knows?”
“Pappas will win in the closest race since Wyman vs. Durkin. It may come down to how it cuts if Trump endorses Sununu in the primary, and how effectively Pappas can appeal to independents while sticking John E. to Trump,” one Guru predicted.
Another said: “Coin toss.”
THE GURU SAYS: “Too close to call.”
NH Gov: Kelly Ayotte vs. TBD
The Granite State Guru has a clear vision of January 2027: Gov. Kelly Ayotte being sworn in for a second term, despite the travails of the Republican Party as a whole.
The question is who Ayotte will have to beat to get there.
Currently, Jon Kiper is the only Democrat in the race, and nobody believes he has a chance of beating Ayotte (including, apparently, Mr. Kiper). The Guru doesn’t see a future in which this failed 2024 candidate for governor is the nominee.
Another failed 2024 contender, however, is on the list: Former Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington. She has said publicly she’s considering a run, but months after Democrats entered the field for the congressional primaries, Warmington is still warming the bench. Will she suit up and get in the game?
Yes, the Guru says, but it’s a close call.
The majority consensus on whether Warmington runs: “Sure – YOLO.” Another Guru said, “It’s too tempting a chance with Trump running rampant and hurting Ayotte for Cinde to stay out. Besides, who else? The erotic poet?”
However, several others echoed this sentiment: “I doubt Cinde runs. Why subject yourself to that?”
THE GURU SAYS: Ayotte will defeat Warmington to win reelection.
NH-01: Stefany Shaheen vs. Anthony DiLorenzo
The Granite State Guru may have taken a vow of poverty in his North Country cave, but he still knows that in politics, money talks and BS walks. In the 1st Congressional District primaries, first-time candidate and businessman Anthony DiLorenzo, who is reportedly putting millions into the race, will have the cash to carry the NHGOP primary (though Hollie Noveletsky’s name was mentioned several times).
And despite coming across to the average voter like John Kerry trying to order sushi at a monster truck rally, Stefany Shaheen has her mom’s last name and — more importantly — her donor list. For the Guru, that’s enough to get her across the finish line. But not by much.
“The nominee will be Stefany Shaheen (though I grow less confident of this every day),” one guru said. A few even predicted a surprise win by Maura Sullivan.
“As much as people love and respect Jeannie and feel like they may owe her, I think for many newer and younger activists, Stefany is too far apart from them,” one guru said. “Not so much in policy but in ‘the struggle.’”
So who wins the general election? It’s not close: New Hampshire keeps a Shaheen in Congress for at least two more years.
Asked about the possibility of the GOP winning a federal election in 2026 — a midterm with Trump in the White House — one guru simply replied, “LOL.”
THE GURU SAYS: Stefany Shaheen defeats DiLorenzo to keep the seat in Democrat hands.
Concord Crossroads: Control of the NH Legislature
With nine months until the primaries, and no idea what the macro-political conditions will be, it’s extremely difficult to see which party will prevail in the fight to win the State House. And the new NHJournal poll shows Granite State voters tied on which party they want to control Concord.
Having said that, the Guru is confident about one thing: Republicans will hold their majority in the state Senate. (Congrats, President Sharon Carson!)
The House, on the other hand… (Sorry, Speaker of the House TBD)
The Guru believes that Republicans will hold the House majority, but it will be a close call. “Razor-thin margins in both chambers,” one guru said.
THE GURU SAYS: Republicans hold the State House.
And finally: Will VP JD Vance and/or former VP Kamala Harris set foot in New Hampshire in 2026?
THE GURU SAYS: Absolutely!
“Vance would be an idiot to stiff N.H. after three Trump wins here,” one Guru said. “Harris comes to ‘tag the base’ intentionally before DNC announces any decision on #FITN calendar — most likely an appearance at a big NHDem state party or Pappas event (if he wants her).”
“Yes, both VP Harris and VP Vance will hit New Hampshire — possibly the same week or maybe the same day,” another said.
There were some doubters. “Kamala Harris won’t come because she hates New Hampshire,” one Guru said. “And Vance will come, but only with Trump. I don’t think Vance will set foot in New Hampshire next year without Trump.”
