Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington released a polling memo Wednesday to boost her standing in the Democratic gubernatorial primary.
Instead, it’s raising questions among political professionals about the state of Warmington’s campaign.
The memo references—but does not include—a poll of 600 likely Democratic primary voters. According to the analysis from Washington, D.C.-based GBAO Strategies, Warmington’s primary opponent, Joyce Craig, currently has a higher name ID, but “Democratic primary voters vastly prefer Warmington’s profile and agenda over Craig’s.”
According to the memo, “As the former mayor of Manchester, Joyce Craig is a slightly better-known candidate to New Hampshire primary voters, with 47 percent able to identify her. Warmington is less well known at this early stage, with just 36 percent name ID. Impressions of the candidates and the race are still very vague at this early point.”
In the head-to-head matchup, “Craig leads Warmington 37–25 percent in an initial vote, with 39 percent undecided.”
The memo also claims that “after voters hear just one positive paragraph about each candidate, Warmington moves into the lead. Even after Democratic primary voters hear potential vulnerabilities for both candidates, Warmington continues to lead. And when Warmington rebuts Craig’s attacks, her lead expands decisively.”
But the memo doesn’t include the text of the poll questions, the “positive paragraphs,” the “potential vulnerabilities,” or the results.
That didn’t stop Warmington from declaring on social media, “Poll Shows Warmington Winning in Primary.”
However, the campaign veterans NHJournal spoke to largely dismissed the document as a tactic to either calm nervous supporters or boost fundraising.
Releasing this type of blind polling memo is not, they agreed, a sign of strength.
“This is useless without knowing what the positive and negative pushes are,” said one New Hampshire campaign operative on background.
“I don’t put much faith in ‘informed ballot surveys’ when they don’t list the pros and cons that were used for the ‘informed’ part,” another added. “Frankly, I’m surprised that 61 percent of Democratic primary voters actually have a preference.”
Veteran GOP political strategist Pat Griffin dismissed it out of hand.
“Campaigns that are in good shape, who have the ‘secret sauce’ to defeat their opponents, those campaigns don’t release documents like this,” Griffin said.
“Then again, she’s running against Joyce Craig. I’m sure it’s like Jon Lovitz on SNL playing Mike Dukakis over at the Warmington campaign. They’ve got to be saying to themselves, ‘I can’t believe I’m losing to this guy.’”
In a press release touting the memo and its findings, Warmington refers to herself as “the highest-ranking Democrat in New Hampshire state government,” a statement Senate Minority Leader Donna Soucy (D-Manchester) or House Democratic Caucus leader Rep. Matt Wilhelm (D-Manchester) might dispute.
She also accuses Craig of “launching misleading attacks” and claims that “leading Democrats have expressed concern that Craig’s attacks on Warmington could cost Democrats in very competitive general elections up and down the ballot this fall.”
Neither campaign would respond to requests for comment from NHJournal, but the Union Leader quotes Craig spokesman Craig Brown.
“Warmington’s campaign is confirming what every poll of this race has shown, that Joyce Craig has a double-digit lead in the Democratic primary. Our campaign is focused on winning the general election in November, where polling shows that Joyce is the only candidate with a clear path to victory against Kelly Ayotte.”
