If Donald Trump is going to flip New Hampshire from blue to red in 2020 as his campaign claims, he’s got a lot of work to do.
A record amount, in fact.
According to Morning Consult’s new state-by-state polling, Donald Trump has a disapproval rating of 60 percent, his highest ever. And his 37 percent approval among New Hampshire voters is the lowest he’s had since taking office as well.
The result is a net negative of -22 percent, which makes New Hampshire the worst of the “swing states” on the 2020 map for President Trump by far. The next closest is Michigan at -15.
As recently as Tuesday, GOP officials were telling NHJournal that the Granite State is winnable for the incumbent president. “It is his record of ‘Promises Made, Promises Kept’ that will win New Hampshire for President Trump,” RNC spokesperson Nina McLaughlin said.
Massachusetts GOP officials say that New Hampshire, along with northern Maine, will be a priority for Republican efforts in New England, but that’s largely due to a lack of options. According to Morning Consult’s polling, Trump’s average in the six New England states is -22. The only state where Trump isn’t underwater by at least 20 points is Maine at -11.
Former Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld, who is challenging President Trump in the 2020 GOP primary, told NHJournal: “There is nothing surprising about these numbers. New Hampshire voters make up their own minds and make their own assessments of Presidents and candidates, and as I talk to those voters, it is increasingly clear that a great many agree that America deserves better.”
According to Morning Consult’s national polling, Trump still enjoys an 85 percent approval rate among GOP voters.
NHGOP state chairman Steve Stepanek insists that he’s optimistic about President Trump’s chances. Anthony Scaramucci, the SkyBridge Capital founder and former White House communications director, is predicting “a 40-state landslide.”
“Because what are you going to do? You’re going to put a socialist in place and wreck the entire economy?” Scaramucci said.
And Trump’s national campaign manager said two weeks ago that, if the election were held now, Trump would win.
“The way turnout now works and the abilities that we have to turn out voters, the polling can’t understand that, and that’s why it was so wrong in 2016. It was 100 percent wrong. Nobody got it right. Not one public poll,” Brad Parscale told CBS’s Major Garrett.
“None of these polls mean anything,” Parscale said. “It’s the biggest joke in politics. It’s the fakest thing.”