#

As the New Hampshire Legislature wraps up its session this month, the rest of the year will see more election activity — specifically, with Republicans who want to run for the U.S. House of Representatives. It’s expected that Democratic U.S. Rep. Carol Shea-Porter in the 1st Congressional District and U.S. Rep. Annie Kuster in the 2nd Congressional District will seek reelection, leaving the field wide open for the GOP to try to defeat them.

Eddie Edwards, former law enforcement professional and chief of N.H. Liquor Commission’s enforcement and licensing division, is the only declared candidate in either district to say he is running for Congress. He announced his candidacy for the 1st District U.S. House seat in April. He said Shea-Porter is “outside of the mainstream of New Hampshire politics.”

The 1st Congressional District seat has always been a competitive race. Since 2010, the seat has flipped back and forth in every election between Shea-Porter and former Republican U.S. Rep. Frank Guinta. Guinta has kept a low public profile since his defeat in 2016, so it’s increasingly unlikely that he would run against Shea-Porter again for an unprecedented fifth matchup. The 1st District also voted for President Donald Trump in the presidential election, yet political analysts have indicated that Shea-Porter holds an advantage in the district, moving the 2018 race from “toss up” to “tilt Democratic.”

Eddie Edwards at Laconia Harley-Davidson (Photo Credit: Edwards for New Hampshire Facebook page)

Edwards said that during the campaign he will be “traveling throughout the district, listening to voters, and offering my vision for positive solutions to bring new jobs to New Hampshire, cut taxes and reduce the size of government, strengthen national security and provide for our veterans, reduce the burden of student loan debt, and fight the opioid epidemic.”

He has been racking up several endorsements since he announced, so the early announcement has definitely moved some people into his corner, but several others are still expected to enter the race. Besides Edwards, here’s a look at the top three Republican candidates in each district that are currently mulling a bid to be the Granite State’s next U.S. representative:

1st Congressional District:

State Sen. Andy Sanborn, R-Bedford (Photo Credit: N.H. Senate)

State Sen. Andy Sanborn, R-Bedford

Sanborn has reportedly been exploring a run for the past few months. It’s expected that he would make his decision after June. The fourth-term senator is the chairman of the Senate Ways and Means Committee where he has put his strong fiscal conservatism on public display.

In fact, the timing of a recent fundraising email has some GOP activists wondering if an announcement is imminent. During a committee meeting in May, he voted against his fellow Republicans on general fund revenue estimates for the biennium state budget.

His colleagues voted to go with higher revenue estimates, but Sanborn voted against them saying they were too high. Sure enough, after the meeting, he blasted out a fundraising email from his “Andy Sanborn for State Senate” campaign about what just happened.

“As you would expect, my tax-loving elected friends spent hours trying to artificially raise the estimates of what the state will bring in, all so they can spend more of your money,” he wrote. “I am happy to report that, with the thanks to some fellow like-minded senators, we were able to fight off fanciful attempts to drive up more bloated government spending without raising a single tax or fee.”

If Sanborn decides to run, he couldn’t use the funds from his state Senate campaign, but it does keep his public profile high.

Matt Mayberry (Photo Credit: Facebook)

Former State Republican Party Vice Chairman Matt Mayberry

Mayberry, of Dover, has also indicated that he is close to making a decision if he’ll run against Shea-Porter. Apparently, he’s been strongly considering a run for Congress since he decided not to run for chairman of the New Hampshire Republican Party after Gov. Chris Sununu endorsed former state Sen. Jeanie Forrester for the position.

Mayberry has remained active in the New Hampshire political scene since he left his job as NHGOP vice chairman. He is one of the founder and co-vice chairs of the New Hampshire Log Cabin Republicans, which officially launched in the state last month.

The 1st District U.S. House race is often seen as swing district, so perhaps his moderate Republican values can appeal to independents in the area. Regardless, he’s inching closer to a run since he reportedly was making the rounds in Washington, D.C. last week.

“I’ve been approached and talked with about 100 grassroots activists so far. And they’re hungry for real leadership. They want real visibility in their communities. They want somebody who’s actually going to work for them,” he told NH1 News in May. “What Carol Shea-Porter’s done is she’s come in, asked for their vote, gone to D.C. and never come back. She appears every two years. They want somebody who’s going to work for them.”

State Rep. John Burt, R-Goffstown (Photo Credit: N.H. House)

State Rep. John Burt, R-Goffstown

The fourth term representative is a well-known figure in the N.H. House — mostly because of his Annual Hot Dog Day on June 1 where lawmakers and staff members meet on the State House plaza to eat hot dogs and raise money for animal shelters and humane societies.

But he’s also seriously considering a run for the 1st Congressional District seat and said he would make a decision at the end of June.

Burt is one of the most conservative members of the Legislature, scoring a 92 on last year’s Americans for Prosperity-New Hampshire legislative scorecard. However, if he decides against a campaign for Congress in 2018, he might challenge longtime state Sen. Lou D’Allesandro, D-Manchester, for his seat.

D’Allesandro has served nearly 20 years in the state Senate. Before that he spent 25 years serving in the N.H. House and on the Executive Council.

“I’m still talking with some people in D.C. and of course with a lot of groups in New Hampshire,” Burt told WMUR. “Many of the New Hampshire groups are asking me to stay where I am and run for the state House or the state Senate, believing I would be more effective here than in Washington. I’m looking at all my options.”

2nd Congressional District:

The National Republican Congressional Committee has their work cut out for them to defeat Kuster. The incumbent Democrat has been in office since 2013 and GOP candidates in the district haven’t been able to drum up enough support.

In the 2016 election, former Republican state Rep. Jim Lawrence did surprisingly well against Kuster despite spending significantly less than her. She won by less than 5 percent of the vote, 50-45 percent. The NRCC is hoping to capitalize on that and recruit a strong candidate in the district.

State Rep. Steve Negron, R-Nashua (Photo Credit: N.H. House)

State Rep. Steve Negron, R-Nashua

The first term state representative told WMUR last week that he’s been seriously considering a run for the 2nd District U.S. House seat for many weeks and will make a decision by the end of June.

Negron is the president and CEO of Integron LLC, a New Hampshire engineering firm, and is a retired U.S. Air Force officer.

“I had actually been approached by some people I hold in high regard in the state and in Washington, asking me if I would be interested in taking an opportunity to see if running against Rep. Kuster would be something I’d be interested in,” he said.

Negron describes himself as a fiscal conservative and he currently sits on the House Election Law Committee, which has seen a lot of action during this legislative cycle with the GOP-led voting reform.

Joe Sweeney (Photo Courtesy of Joe Sweeney)

Former State Rep. Joe Sweeney, R-Salem

The two-term state representative is also the former chair for the New Hampshire Young Republicans. He first entered the Legislature in 2012 and continued when he was a student at the University of New Hampshire.

He previously indicated on WMUR’s CloseUP in April that he was looking into a run for Congress and what he lacks in experience due to his age, he makes up for in new ideas and new leadership.

Sweeney has already registered a candidate committee with the secretary of state’s office for the Rockingham District 8 seat.

Lynne Blankenbeker (Photo Credit: LinkedIn)

Former State Rep. Lynne Blankenbeker, R-Concord

This potential candidate is one of the most talked about within inner state GOP circles. Blankenbeker won a special election in 2009 in a heavily Democratic Concord seat and served in 2012. She’s also an active member of the military, where she has recently been promoted as a captain in the U.S. Navy. She has served in Iraq and Afghanistan as a combat nurse, is a former nurse and risk management specialist at Dartmouth-Hitchcock, and is an attorney.

With those impressive credentials, GOP campaign consultants are heavily encouraging her to give Kuster a run for her money. She’s expected to finish up her time in the military in January and they’re hopeful she’ll hop into the 2nd Congressional District race then.

Blankenbeker recently delivered a speech to the New Hampshire Federation of Republican Women, one of the state’s most prominent Republican groups, at its annual Lilac Luncheon on June 2 at the Grappone Conference Center in Concord.

Follow Kyle on Twitter.

Sign up for NH Journal’s must-read morning political newsletter.

In a 10-hour marathon session, the Republican-led Senate approved an $11.8 billion state budget, defeating all Democratic attempts to increase spending in mental health, social services, and education. The budget ultimately passed on a 14-9 party line vote.

The spending plan changed very little from what the Senate Finance Committee put forward, but concerns and praise for the budget fell on party lines. Republicans applauded the money going to help the mental health crisis in the state, but Democrats disagree, saying the budget doesn’t fund critical social services.

Some of the budget’s highlights include expanding mental health treatment beds, creating a new student scholarship program, and cutting the state’s business taxes.

“What we’ve developed is a budget that serves the citizens of New Hampshire, but lives within our means,” said Senate Finance Committee Chairman Gary Daniels. “I believe we have achieved an appropriate balance between the two and we’ve done a lot to get us to this point.”

Democrats put forward more than two dozen amendments to increase funding for child protective services, adding nurses to New Hampshire Hospital, making Medicaid expansion permanent, funding full-day kindergarten, and increasing the budget for the state university system. They argue that the state can spend an additional $45 million since the budget’s revenue estimates are too low.

“It creates an artificial, trumped-up surplus to sell the biggest Republican ruse of all, that slashing taxes for the rich will grow revenues and improve lives for poor, middle-class people,” said Senate Minority Leader Jeff Woodburn.

“I recognize and respect my colleagues who think it’s not enough or some would suggest even never enough, but on the other hand, Mr. President, you know there are people like me who are always very concerned that maybe it’s always too much,” responded Sen. Andy Sanborn, R-Bedford.

On a few amendments, a couple of GOP senators sided with Democrats, but it was not enough for the measure to be adopted. For example, Republican Sens. Sanborn and Ruth Ward of Stoddard voted with Democrats to roll back proposed health care premium increases for state retirees, but it failed on a 12-11 vote. In another 12-11 vote, GOP Sens. Regina Birdsell of Hampstead and Harold French of Franklin voted with Democrats to add $6 million in additional education aid grants to public schools, but that measure also failed.

Heated debate between the two parties occurred, as expected, on the business tax cuts in the budget blueprint. An old debate flared up over abortion policy, though, when an eleventh-hour Republican amendment was introduced to block state and federal funds from going to centers that offer abortion services.

“This is about controlling women’s health choices, plain and simple, and this is about merging church and state,” said Sen. Martha Hennessy, D-Hanover.

Tensions remained high as Sen. Kevin Avard, R-Nashua, raised his voice in response to Hennessy.

“Forcing people to violate their conscience with their tax dollars, that is hateful,” he said. “I challenge anyone in here to tell me in any constitution where I am forced to pay for somebody’s abortion, show it to me.”

Hennessy said the amendment was an attack on her rights, while Republicans argue it’s just codifying what’s already happening.

“Could you imagine the men in this room if we snuck in some amendment about how the government shouldn’t pay for Viagra?” Hennessey said.

The amendment ultimately failed, 17-6. Democrats also tried unsuccessfully to eliminate a reference to the so-called Hyde Amendment that outlaws spending public dollars on abortions, in order to prevent any future cuts to Planned Parenthood.

With the Senate’s approval, the biennium budget is sent to the GOP-led House. Yet, there are some concerns from conservatives who are threatening to oppose the plan because it spends too much. The chamber is likely to call for a conference committee of senators and representatives to compromise on various issues within the budget, despite the House failing to pass their own plan earlier this year.

Red flags that House conservatives were not entirely pleased with the budget were first raised during a Tuesday budget information session.

“I’m opposed to this budget as it currently stands, and I am going to work to defeat it,” said Rep. James McConnell, R-North Swanzey, who is also a member of the House Freedom Caucus.

The House Freedom Caucus helped sink the chamber’s budget this year, making it the first time since at least 1969 that the House failed to produce a spending plan.

Yet, it’s still too early to tell if the caucus will try to defeat the Senate budget. In an interview with New Hampshire Public Radio, Rep. J.R. Hoell, R-Dunbarton, and co-chair of the House Freedom Caucus, said the Senate proposal is an improvement.

“They’ve made some great changes in terms of improvements — cutting the business taxes is a good example, funding the charter schools is another good example, so there are positive steps forward,” he said. “Some of us are still concerned that it spends more than we’re comfortable with and that’s…put us in a stalemate almost. The overall increase in government size is bigger than a number of us are conformable with.”

Hoell sent an email to caucus members after a meeting this week, saying the group is hopeful that their needs will be met in the conference committee.

Republicans only hold a slim majority in the House and a handful of defections could defeat the budget if Democrats also oppose it. They have largely criticized the GOP-budget, but some could side with Republicans out of fear of not getting anything passed.

The budget process needs to be over by June 30 before the start of the next fiscal year. If a budget is not passed by then, lawmakers would need to pass a continuing resolution, which would fund the government at its current levels until a full budget is passed.

Follow Kyle on Twitter.

Sign up for NH Journal’s must-read morning political newsletter.

Outside groups often funnel money into states during an election, but many New Hampshire residents were probably hoping it would be some time before they again face the onslaught of more political ads. Yet, two progressive groups are currently spending money in New Hampshire, trying to influence how lawmakers decide on a voting rights bill that would tighten the state’s voter ID and registration laws.

The latest group, Let America Vote, made a five-figure digital ad buy in the Granite State at the end of March targeting Sen. Kevin Avard, R-Nashua, to change his vote on Senate Bill 3.

Senate Bill 3 was introduced by Sen. Regina Birdsell, R-Hampstead, to address concerns that due to New Hampshire’s “lax” voting laws, people who aren’t living in the state, or are only temporarily here, are voting in New Hampshire elections. Republicans want to tighten the process, but Democrats have dubbed the bill as a form of voter suppression. The Senate passed the bill on March 30 on a party line vote, 14-9, with Avard voting for the legislation.

The bill tackles the complex issue of “domicile” versus “residence.” Under current laws, the definition of domicile is “that place, to which upon temporary absence, a person has the intention of returning.” Republicans think that’s vague and want to make clear who can and cannot vote in the state.

Democrats are pushing the narrative that the bill would prevent college students and military members who are “temporarily” in the state from voting in elections when it’s their right to cast their ballot. That’s the message Let America Vote wants residents to hear, so they can encourage their lawmakers from moving the bill forward.

TAKE ACTION: Ask NH State Senator Kevin Avard to withdraw his support for SB3, which targets students and military voters. Call 603-271-4151

— Let America Vote (@Let_AmericaVote) March 29, 2017

Republican lawmakers and New Hampshire Republican Party Chairman Jeanie Forrester are pushing back, saying it will not stop college students or military members from voting.

.@nhdems engaging in more fake news. Scaring vets by lying about SB3. Shameful #nhpolitics. pic.twitter.com/MuxGVHGkEL

— Jeanie Forrester (@JeanieForrester) March 30, 2017

Let America Vote is a new group that formed in February 2017 under the leadership of Jason Kander. The former Democratic Senate candidate gave Republican U.S. Sen. Roy Blunt a run for his money in the Missouri Senate race, which was one of the most watched races in the country. Blunt beat Kander — 49.2 to 46.4 percent.

Kander didn’t stay quiet after losing the election, though. With his new organization, he focuses on states that are trying to suppress voting rights.

Let America Vote recently announced they were launching three new voting rights ads in Georgia’s 6th Congressional District special election, in Virginia to oppose a Republican plan to overturn Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe’s veto of a bill that would require a photo copy of a state-issued ID included with absentee ballots, and in New Hampshire to oppose SB 3, “which could strip voting rights from college students and would allow elections officers to visit people’s homes to check in on residents just because they voted.”

Kander penned an op-ed for The Nashua Telegraph on Sunday, writing that Republicans are trying to suppress Democratic voters so they can win in future elections.

“For decades, some Republicans across the country have gotten away with passing deliberate voter suppression laws by rebranding them as efforts to fight against voter fraud,” he wrote. “There is more to this agenda than simply suppressing the vote. Not coincidentally, Republicans are pushing this bill just months after New Hampshire Democrats won both a U.S. Senate seat and the presidential vote in the 2016 election. Senate Bill 3 will tip the scales against Democrats where they’ve have won by razor-thin margins.”

Yet, it’s been noted by several right-wing bloggers and members of State House press corp that progressive outside groups seem to be very interested in this bill. New Hampshire Democrats often decry when outside money for Republicans pour into the state, but now, they have publicly applauded these groups focused on voting rights.

Lotta outside interest in this #NHpolitics bill. @prioritiesUSA also weighed in last month: https://t.co/p7W2bHaUxl https://t.co/8v5fEAyPYw

— Casey McDermott (@caseymcdermott) April 10, 2017

Hmm.. Jason Kander pends an op-ed in a New Hampshire newspaper, panning GOP for changes to voting laws #nhpolitics https://t.co/1PF3JZw2vj

— Kathleen Ronayne (@kronayne) April 10, 2017

Priorities USA, a pro-Democratic group, launched digital ads earlier in March targeting Republican senators on the Election Law Committee to defeat the bill before it went to the Senate.

The ads targeted Sen. James Gray, R-Rochester and Sen. Andy Sanborn, R-Bedford, both cosponsors of the bill, and Birdsell, author of the bill and chair of the committee.

“Hmmm — liberal Democrats from outside New Hampshire trying to influence the outcome of our democratic process. Sounds familiar,” said NHGOP senior adviser Patrick Hynes to WMUR when Priorities USA launched their ads.

Priorities USA is known nationally for its focus on voting rights. The fundraising arm of the organization, Priorities USA Action, was the top super PAC supporting Democratic president candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016 and was the main money driver for former President Barack Obama’s 2012 campaign.

The group also said it urged voters to call N.H. House Speaker Shawn Jasper’s office about voting rights.

The bill now moves to the House Election Law Committee, which will hear public testimony again before the bill moves on to the full House for a vote. It can be expected that these outside groups, and possibly others, will also continue their campaign to kill the bill.

Follow Kyle on Twitter.

Sign up for NH Journal’s must-read morning political newsletter.

It’s never too early to be thinking about the 2018 midterm elections. For the incumbent party in the White House, it usually means losing seats. However, Republicans are poised to retain control of the House and Senate, barring any major catastrophe, which would give Democrats the advantage.

In New Hampshire, it could mean tough races for Democratic incumbent Reps. Carol Shea-Porter and Annie Kuster, and their final campaign finance filings for the 2016 election cycle can provide clues on what to expect for their reelection campaigns.

Assuming they run again for their seats, Kuster and Shea-Porter enter the 2018 contests with a significant difference between them in their total cash on hand.

Shea-Porter only has approximately $3,800 in the bank as a result of a tough election against former Republican Rep. Frank Guinta and Independent candidate Shawn O’Connor. Out of the 435 representatives in the House, she has the fifth lowest cash on hand total.

Kuster, on the other hand, sits modestly with just over $1 million stashed away.

The median amount that lawmakers who won their races in 2016 have in the bank is about $367,000, according to the Center for Responsive Politics (CRP), a nonpartisan research group tracking money and lobbying in elections. Specifically for House candidates, it’s about $361,000.

Of course, for party leaders they have the biggest war chests since they are expected to raise money to help their colleagues. House Speaker Paul Ryan had the highest cash on hand in the House with $9.1 million.

“The typical pattern is that campaigns that are in tough reelections or open seat battles will almost never have any money left,” said Caleb Burns, a partner at Wiley Rein LLP, to the CRP. “But conversely, the opposite is also true, where members of Congress have extraordinarily safe seats and don’t feel the pressure of having to raise a lot of money.”

That’s especially true for New Hampshire’s representatives. Kuster was assumed to have a relatively safe seat in the Granite State’s 2nd Congressional District, while Shea-Porter in the 1st Congressional District was always going to have a tough time ousting Guinta.

So what does this mean going into next year’s race?

Well, it shouldn’t come as a surprise, but the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) included Shea-Porter and Kuster in their initial 36-member target list.

Kuster spent nearly $2.2 million against Republican challenger Jim Lawrence. He spent less than $100,000, and yet, Kuster only defeated Lawrence by 5 percent, 50-45 percent, respectively, with Libertarian John Babiarz receiving 5 percent. The NRCC figures that if they can recruit a decent candidate and put a little money into the race, they could have a chance at ousting Kuster.

For Shea-Porter, the 1st Congressional District is always a toss up, mostly because it’s been a Shea-Porter versus Guinta contest every two years since 2010. The NRCC and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee usually throw a decent amount of funds toward the district’s candidates. It also helps the NRCC that Shea-Porter has been kicked out by voters before and she defeated Guinta in a crowded field. She won by a margin of 162,080 to 156,176, while independents O’Connor and Brendan Kelly and Libertarian Robert Lombardo garnered a total of 46,316 votes among them, possibly to the detriment of Guinta.

However, Republicans swept the 1st District in every other federal race. Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by about 6,000 votes, former Sen. Kelly Ayotte beat Sen. Maggie Hassan also by about 6,000 votes, and Gov. Chris Sununu defeated former Executive Councilor Colin Van Ostern by about 18,000 votes. With the right candidate, the NRCC believes they can flip the district again.

Any ideas on who’s going to run against Shea-Porter or Kuster?

As recently as Wednesday, one Republican has indicated that he’s “seriously” interested in challenging Shea-Porter in the 1st District.

John Burt, a four-term New Hampshire House member from Goffstown, told WMUR that he has spoken with conservatives throughout the state and region about running for Congress. He said he hopes to make a final decision in the coming weeks.

“I have no doubt that I can beat Carol Shea-Porter,” he said. “In 2018, it’s going to be another 2010-type sweep of Republicans heading to D.C. and also to the New Hampshire State House.”

Other Republicans being talked about as possible candidates include state Sen. Andy Sanborn from Bedford and former state commissioner of the Department of Health and Human Services John Stephen, who is also a former gubernatorial and congressional candidate.

Don’t be surprised if Guinta makes another run for the seat he lost. Neither Shea-Porter nor Guinta ruled out running again in 2018 if they lost.

Earlier this month, the DCCC made Kuster the chair of its “Frontline” incumbent retention program, which gives special attention to vulnerable Democratic incumbents, so they must feel confident that she can win again in 2018.

However, former state Rep. Joe Sweeney of Salem previously told WMUR that he is “in the very early portion of exploring a run” for the 2nd District against Kuster.

“I firmly believe that Congresswoman Kuster does not adequately represent the district, and her performance and voting record presents a winnable path,” he said.

Senate President Chuck Morse could also be a potential candidate. The Salem senator is listed on the National Governors Association’s website as a former governor of New Hampshire. He served as acting governor for two days from January 3 to 5, when former Gov. Hassan resigned early to be sworn in as U.S. Senator. The New Hampshire Union Leader sees him as an option for Republican Party operatives still looking for a candidate.

Voters shouldn’t rule out seeing the two Republican frontrunners from the 2nd District GOP primary on the ballot either. Former House Majority Leader Jack Flanagan from Brookline indicated that he was hearing from supporters to run again in 2018. He lost the GOP primary to Lawrence by about 5,000 votes. Also, with Lawrence’s close finish to Kuster in the general election, he heard calls from supporters to consider yet another run. If he did, this would be his third congressional bid in six years.

Follow Kyle on Twitter.