Republican Kelly Ayotte and Democrat Joyce Craig both kicked off their general election campaigns Wednesday morning with visits to 9/11 memorial events and meet-and-greets with enthusiastic supporters. Meanwhile, the man whose job they hope to take tells NHJournal he knows who’s going to win and how she’s going to win it.
Kelly Ayotte attends 9/11 commemoration in Salem, NH.
“Let’s remember: Kelly Ayotte is running against Joyce Craig. That’s the mic drop right there,” Sununu said on the NHJournal podcast.
At first glance, Ayotte appears to have the upper hand. She’s following in the footsteps of a very popular governor to lead a state that is consistently ranked one of the best places in America to live and work. She defeated her primary opponent, former state Senate President Chuck Morris, by a massive 30-point margin (64 to 34 percent). Meanwhile, Democratic nominee Joyce Craig won a far more modest 48 to 42 percent victory over Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington.
And, Ayotte supporters were quick to point out, Craig failed to win a majority of the vote in her own party.
At the same time, Ayotte faces some headwinds, many generated by former President Donald Trump at the top of the Republican ticket. While Ayotte was in downtown Manchester celebrating her victory, Trump was on stage in Philadelphia, losing a nationally-televised debate to Vice President Kamala Harris. And talking about illegal immigrants eating housepets.
“Yeah, that was not a good one,” Sununu conceded. “Between [GOP Vice Presidential nominee] JD Vance and the cat lady comments, and now Trump talking about cats being eaten, I’m here to say the Trump campaign needs to stay away from animal issues.”
Trump has never won New Hampshire, though he came within fewer than 3,000 votes in 2016. And Sununu insists Trump vs. Harris is going to be closer to Trump vs. Clinton than Trump’s eight-point 2020 loss to Joe Biden.
“I do think Kamala stands to do well [in New Hampshire], and the numbers are going to narrow. It’s going to be within a couple of percentage points,” Sununu said. But even if Trump does drag the GOP ticket a bit, Ayotte is still in good shape, Sununu said.
“Let’s remember: Kelly Ayotte is running against Joyce Craig. That’s the mic drop, right there,” Sununu said. “An absolute do nothing.
“The one thing she did in our state’s biggest city — with the state’s biggest challenges — her claim to fame, was ‘I’m going to blame everybody else for everything.’ That scares the heck out of me,” Sununu said.
“Joyce is just a rudderless boat praying that it lands on the right dock at the right time, that it gets dragged over the finish line by Vice President Harris. That’s not a way to run a campaign.”
Ayotte has certainly not been shy about attacking Craig’s record.
“Joyce Craig was an incompetent mayor who would take New Hampshire down the wrong path as governor,” Ayotte said in a statement Wednesday. “It’s clear from her record of raising taxes and overriding the tax cap that she will bring the Massachusetts model to the Corner Office.”
Craig counters Ayotte’s attacks on her record as mayor are an insult to the people of Manchester.
“The last thing our state needs is a governor pitting people and communities against each other,” Craig said Tuesday night.
That’s not the same as defending your record or advancing your argument, however, and Craig has had some stumbles in responding to attacks over crime and homelessness on her watch. At one point during the debate with Warmington when Craig was trying to explain her decision not to remove homeless camps from public streets, Craig said, “We did what we could.”
When Craig accuses Republicans of insulting the people of Manchester when they criticize her record, they quote the words of Cinde Warmington: “The voters of Manchester rejected Joyce Craig’s agenda. In the last election, they voted Republican while Democrats won all around the state,” the Democrat said during last week’s debate.
And Ayotte has been campaigning in Manchester with Republican Mayor Jay Ruais, who defeated Craig’s hand-picked successor to win the job last November.
“Kelly is the perfect person we need in Concord as a partner and an ally here in the city of Manchester, concerned with the very things that we are,” Ruais said in a video message to voters. “Affording housing, bail reform, making sure we’re supporting our first responders.”
In the past two New Hampshire elections with an open governor’s seat and a presidential race in the same year, 2016 and 2012, the winning candidate outpaced their party’s nominee by just two points. In 2012, Maggie Hassan won 54.6 percent of the vote while President Barack Obama won 52 percent. In 2016, Sununu won 48.8 percent while Trump was 47.3 percent in his loss to Hillary Clinton (47.6 percent).
If Harris defeats Trump by the same eight percent margin that Biden beat Trump in 2020, Ayotte could struggle to make up the difference.
Asked what message he had for Ayotte and the other GOP candidates as they campaign between now and November, Sununu had two words. “Retail politics.”
“Retail politics wins. That’s it. Retail, retail, retail,” Sununu said. “Meet people. Meet people who are out of your comfort zone. Get uncomfortable in your campaign by meeting people and engaging with them. They want you to talk to them, even if they don’t agree with you.
That personal connection “goes a long way,” Sununu said.
