The latest poll from the Saint Anselm College Survey Center (SACSC) at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics (NHIOP) shows Republican Kelly Ayotte still holding the same three-point lead she’s enjoyed since their first post-primary poll in September.
Over that same period, Vice President Kamala Harris’ support has remained flat at 51 percent, while former President Donald Trump’s has ticked up in the past month, closing the gap from 51-43 percent (Harris +8) to 51-46 percent (Harris +5).
“With just one week until Election Day, Vice President Kamala Harris retains her lead over former President Donald Trump in New Hampshire. Former Sen. Kelly Ayotte remains near the 50 percent mark in the governor’s race, maintaining a narrow lead over former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig,” said Neil Levesque, executive director of the NH Institute of Politics.
But look closer, and it’s possible to spot a subtle shift toward the GOP similar to the small but steady growth of Trump’s numbers nationwide.
Across the board, the trend in the St. A’s poll is relatively uniform: Stable races with little movement, with a slight GOP bump over the past few weeks.
For example, U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas (D) has been at 50 percent since the primary. His opponent, Republican Russell Prescott has gone from 38 percent to 43 percent. That leaves Pappas with a healthy seven-point lead, but the only movement is toward the Republican.
In the race to fill outgoing U.S. Rep. Annie Kuster’s seat, Democrat Maggie Goodlander’s number has barely moved (49 to 51 percent) while Republican Lily Tang Williams has risen from 38 to 43 percent. Still a big lead for Goodlander (+8), but not much movement.
And on the generic ballot question — would you vote Democrat or Republican for Congress? — Democrats haven’t moved in three months: 49 percent. The GOP number has risen from 44 to 47 percent.
What do all of these modest movements mean? They appear to track the national trend, which shows a tight race for the White House, but with a modicum of momentum for Trump. Could the shifting numbers be enough to bring Trump to the Granite State?
Trump campaign insiders say that’s extremely unlikely, but national spokesperson Karoline Leavitt told radio host Jack Heath Wednesday that a visit from Trump running mate Sen. JD Vance could be in the works.
NBC News numbers guru Steve Kornacki told the Commentary podcast Wednesday that New Hampshire is one of the outer-edge states he’s keeping an eye on, along with Minnesota, New Mexico, and Virginia.
“It’s a funky state, and it has a very, very unique and independent political tradition, too,” Kornacki said.
Earlier in the day, the right-leaning Rasmussen Reports polling firm released numbers showing Harris with just a one-point lead in the Granite State, 48 to 47 percent.
And the two previous public polls — NHJournal and Emerson College — put the Trump vs. Harris race within the margin of error.
Is Trump likely to win the Granite State? Most political professionals say it’s unlikely. But if it’s close, ala 2016, that could mean good news for down ballot Republicans — and a long night for the Harris campaign across the country.
