U.S. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s decision to retire rather than seek a fourth term appeared to catch many New Hampshire Democrats by surprise Wednesday morning. But within hours, the party’s political players were already making moves in response.
Shaheen is the third incumbent Senate Democrat from a swing state to bow out rather than face voters in 2026, setting back her party’s already fading hopes of flipping the Senate. Republicans hold a 53-47 advantage, and only two GOP incumbents — Sens. Susan Collins (Maine) and Thom Tillis (N.C.) are believed to be in competitive races.
Meanwhile, Republicans will be trying to flip seats in two states Donald Trump won in November (Georgia and Michigan), and now an open seat in New Hampshire, where Trump lost by just three points. Cook Political Report says the Granite State’s partisan lean is just D+2, making it the most competitive “blue” state in the country.
At the same time, Republicans have only won one federal election in New Hampshire since the 2010 Tea Party wave. But with Shaheen stepping aside, national GOP leadership believes the race is now a toss-up. Who will take Shaheen’s place on the ticket?
Granite State politicos have long believed U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas (NH-01) is the most logical successor to Shaheen, and the First District Democrat wasted no time getting out word that he’s “strongly considering” a run.
Late Wednesday afternoon, Pappas sent out an email inviting constituents to participate in a Facebook town hall the next day.
Sources tell NHJournal on background he could make a formal announcement as soon as this Monday. If elected, Pappas would be the first openly gay male U.S. senator.
Former Rep. Annie Kuster, who stepped down last year, told Axios she would consider entering the race if Pappas doesn’t run. The Democrat who took her place, Rep. Maggie Goodlander, also leaked that she’s taking a look at the Senate race, too — despite having been in Congress for less than three months.
There has long been speculation that Shaheen’s daughter Stefany might be a natural successor to her mother’s seat. Respected on both sides of the aisle, the younger Shaheen served on the Portsmouth City Council and as chair of the Police Commission.
Unlike the other people on the rumor-mill shortlist, Stefany Shaheen hasn’t leaked any comments about the race. And many longtime Granite State political professionals speculate she is more likely to run to fill a congressional vacancy created by Pappas running for Senate.
“I think it smacks too much of ‘dynasty,’ to run to replace your mother,” one longtime political insider said on background. “Running for Congress would be different, it’s not running for your mom’s seat.”
If Pappas does run for the Senate, it could kick off a contested primary in the First Congressional District similar to the 10-way race he faced in 2018 when he first won the seat. The candidate who came in second that year, Maura Sullivan, has made no secret of her interest in another bid for Congress.
It’s possible the Democratic Party leadership could rally around a single candidate in the NH-01 primary — as it did with Maggie Goodlander in NH-02, helping her defeat Kuster’s handpicked successor Colin Van Ostern last year. However, it’s more likely there will be a multi-way primary due to the simple fact that, once a Democrat wins federal office, that pathway is closed until they move up or, as Shaheen is doing, move out.
No incumbent Democratic governor, U.S. representative or U.S. senator has ever lost a primary in the history of New Hampshire politics.
And speaking of governor, no Democrats are even being rumored as potential challengers to Gov. Kelly Ayotte, who’s all but certain to seek a second term next year. (Asked by NHJournal if she would consider a return to the U.S. Senate, Ayotte replied, “Oh God, no.”)
The one remaining variable for the Democratic field is actually a Republican: Former Gov. Chris Sununu. If he decides to run for Senate, will Pappas risk a safe congressional seat for a competitive U.S. Senate race?
Many Republicans believe Sununu would be the odds-on favorite to win the seat. Jim Geraghty, senior political correspondent of National Review, called Sununu “all but a lock.”
Democrats disagree, insisting New Hampshire’s blue tilt at the federal level will lift their nominee to victory.
“He’s (Sununu) talking about how he wants to be part of the Trump-Musk-DOGE effort,” Shaheen told Semafor after her announcement Wednesday. “That doesn’t play very well in New Hampshire, and I think it’s going to play less well the longer we go into their efforts.”
If Sununu doesn’t run, former ambassador and Massachusetts U.S. Sen. Scott Brown has all but announced his candidacy. After the Shaheen news broke, Brown posted a message on social media thanking her for her service.
“Now it’s time for New Hampshire to have someone in the delegation who fights for our priorities and stands with, not against, the Trump agenda,” Brown added.
Shaheen was not so gracious in her remarks regarding Brown.
“You didn’t hear me say [this]: When you write the stories, please write that he colors his hair, and I don’t,” she told Semafor.
“He’s not from New Hampshire. He hasn’t done anything in New Hampshire except pretend like he’s bringing candidates into the state. You ask him, his big accomplishment is he coaches a women’s basketball team, and it’s in Massachusetts.”
