The filing period for the 2026 U.S. Senate primaries doesn’t open for another 14 months, but the national GOP is already targeting U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas, launching an oppo research website highlighting some of his most problematic positions.

The Manchester Democrat is all but certain to enter the race to replace U.S. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen when she retires at the end of this term. First-term U.S. Rep. Maggie Goodlander — who has been in Congress less than 90 days and only moved to the district last summer — says she’s considering a run, too.

But it’s Pappas who’s viewed by many Granite State political professionals as the most likely and the most viable candidate.

“He’s very bright,” a New Hampshire Democratic insider who supported Goodlander in the NH-02 primary told NHJournal on background. “He’s a solid and experienced candidate who has won and held at least four elected New Hampshire offices, demonstrating an ability to do them all well — while exhibiting solid leadership we desperately need from our U.S. senators.”

Soon after Pappas announced his 10-county “Grounded in Granite” listening tour across the state (and well outside the 1st Congressional District), the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) posted a music-tour-themed website hitting Pappas’s record.

 

 

Among the Pappas votes highlighted by the NRSC:

“Chris Pappas is out of touch with the day-to-day interests of New Hampshire families,” said NRSC Regional Press Secretary Nick Puglia. “He supports biological males competing in women’s sports, voted to expand the IRS and raise taxes on hard-working New Hampshire families, and recklessly voted for a government shutdown. He’s the last person who deserves a promotion.”

Veteran New Hampshire GOP strategist Jim Merrill says Pappas should be flattered by the GOP attention.

“The NRSC isn’t messing around. They know Pappas will be formidable and they want to define him — early and often.”

Whatever the Republicans do, Pappas will have the built-in advantage of being a Democrat running for federal office in New Hampshire. No Republican has won a U.S. Senate race here since Kelly Ayotte’s victory in 2010.

However, if former GOP Gov. Chris Sununu decides to run, polls show he would enter the race as the frontrunner. Sununu has made multiple media appearances since Shaheen announced her retirement, and he’s said “the door is cracked,” as opposed to entirely shut as it has been in the past.

NRSC Chair Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) mentions New Hampshire in his list of potential 2026 pick ups — along with Georgia, Michigan, and Minnesota — but he’s acknowledged he hasn’t gotten the governor on board. Axios reports the two had dinner last week, and Scott said Sununu “has expressed more interest, but isn’t locked in for the state’s upcoming Senate race.”

Midterm elections are generally more favorable cycles for the party out of power (the only GOP federal victories were in 2014 and 2010), which would suggest an advantage for the Democratic nominee. However, the 2026 map isn’t great for Democrats nationwide, as they defend three open seats (Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire) and a very competitive Georgia seat. If there’s a scramble for campaign cash, New Hampshire could lose out to those other races.

Pappas is a solid fundraiser, raking in more than $4 million last cycle despite facing only token opposition. (According to OpenSecrets.com, he has more than $400,000 cash on hand.) And given his election would make Pappas the first openly-gay man to serve in the U.S. Senate, the deep-pocketed donors of the LGBT community would likely make a major investment in his race.

On WMUR Sunday, Manchester Alderman Joe Kelly Levasseur said Pappas is the reason the seat has remained in the Democrats’ hands.

“I think he’s the only Democrat who can win that district,” said Levasseur, who ran unsuccessfully in the NH-01 GOP primary last year.

And he agrees that Sununu entering the Senate race would have a huge impact.

“If Sununu gets into the race, he’ll bring in a ton of money into the state. If he’s at the top of the ballot, he will bring all the rest of the Republicans up. Sununu getting win would make (NH-01) a very interesting race.”

Another Granite State Republican campaign operative, speaking on background, was even more definitive about the Sununu effect.

“If Sununu doesn’t stop him (Pappas), it’s hard to see who else will.”