The latest update of the University of Washington’s model projecting future deaths from COVID-19 now more than doubles the number of deaths in New Hampshire from 31 to 66 by August 4, 2020. It’s a reminder of how little medical and scientific professionals know about this novel coronavirus and how volatile the data can be.

After an initial projection of 337 Granite State deaths and a shortfall of 81 ICU beds, the University of Washington-based Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) issued an update on Monday revising that number down to 31 deaths and no ICU shortages.

On Wednesday morning, the new IHME model now predicts 66 deaths, but still no shortage of hospital or ICU beds in the state. Obviously this number can change again, and it almost certainly will.



Another downward trend: New Hampshire’s ranking when it comes to aggressive action to stop the spread of coronavirus. After being ranked the fourth most aggressive state vs coronavirus by the data analysts of, on Tuesday the state dropped to ninth.

“In order to determine the states that are most and least aggressive in their efforts to limit exposure to coronavirus, WalletHub compared the 50 states and the District of Columbia across 51 unique metrics,” the company reports. “Our data set ranges from tested cases of COVID-19 per capita and state legislation on the pandemic to the uninsured population and share of the workforce in affected industries. Read on for the ranking and a complete description of our methodology.”

Most notable is New Hampshire’s rankings on per-capita testing (#20), share of workers with access to paid sick leave (#6), and public health emergency funding per capita (#10).