National Democrats are throwing in the towel in the fight for control of the Granite State legislature next year.
Flipping the New Hampshire House was a top priority for the Democratic Leadership Campaign Committee in the 2024 election cycle, and the DLCC spent big on state Senate races, too.
The DLCC declared in a 2023 statement, “We are laser-focused on loosening the GOP’s grip on these battleground states and finally taking back these chambers.”
Among the chambers targeted last cycle were the New Hampshire House and Senate, as well as the two Arizona legislative chambers, the Virginia House, and the Pennsylvania Senate.
But in a memo released Tuesday, the national organization announced it’s now downgrading the New Hampshire House from “Battleground” status to its second-tier target group (“Power Building”). And it has abandoned the New Hampshire Senate entirely, all but conceding Democrats don’t have a path to take control of the state legislature next year.
“The DLCC’s target map represents our role in crafting the long-term strategy for building Democratic power in the states,” the organization stated. “Our strategy builds on important lessons and data from the last cycle.”
The Republican State Leadership Committee took a victory lap.
“We’re just weeks into the new year, and it’s becoming clear why state Democrats have lost the trust of many Americans,” RSLC President Edith Jorge-Tuñón told NHJournal.
“They offer no real solutions for working-class families, leaving them to struggle, while state Republicans are actively outlining a bold agenda that focuses on lowering taxes, securing our borders, and ensuring the safety of our communities. The Democratic Party from top to bottom is currently in disarray, while state Republicans are proving themselves to be the reliable choice for putting America back on the right path.”
The national Democrats’ move could be a response to the disappointing performance of New Hampshire Democrats last year, when the Granite State legislature was on the top five “most flippable” list. In an October 2024 announcement, the DLCC bragged that its spending on targeted races in New Hampshire “surpassed $1 million.” Among the candidates it supported were Sen. Shannon Chandley (D-Amherst) and Senate candidate Rep. Ben Ming (D-Hollis.)
Both were defeated in November.
Republicans expanded their majority in the House and won a supermajority in the Senate, even as Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris carried the state’s electoral votes.
The decision to downgrade its investment in New Hampshire could also be viewed as a measure of the confidence — or lack thereof — the national party has in state party chair Ray Buckley’s ability to win state-level elections.
“We owe it all to Ray Buckley. Couldn’t have done it without him,” quipped House Majority Leader Jason Osborne (R-Auburn).
Like the rest of New England, Democrats dominate at the federal level. But after a decade of dominating the race for governor, Buckley has lost five gubernatorial races in a row — two of them for open seats — and he’s lost the state legislature four of the past five cycles.
Buckley declined to respond to requests for comment about the DLCC’s decision, as did House Minority Leader Rep. Alexis Simpson (D-Exeter) and Senate Minority Leader Sen. Rebecca Perkins Kwoka (D-Portsmouth).
“After the DLCC spent $3 million last year and not only did they not flip the New Hampshire legislature, but they lost significant ground and even had a board member (Donna Soucy) lose her seat, it’s clear they’ve realized that this isn’t the fertile ground they thought it was even last year,” said Greg Moore with Americans For Prosperity. “That’s particularly true in the face of a potential $150 million U.S. Senate campaign (in 2026) that will level the playing field in what would otherwise be a midterm that should, on paper favor the Democrats.”
U.S. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, who will turn 80 in January 2027, is all but certain to face a GOP challenge in 2026, most likely former U.S. Senator and Ambassador Scott Brown.
“Democrats are smart to give up on New Hampshire,” Osborne added. “After the further cultural shift we will experience over the tenure of Governor Ayotte, I expect they won’t bother coming back either.”
