The Monday Memo is a mix of reporting, rumors, analysis, and unkind comments compiled from various sources and provided for your entertainment and enlightenment each Monday. Reader discretion is advised.
Cinde Warmington: Will She, Won’t She, and Why Would She?
New Hampshire Democratic Party chair Ray Buckley is circulating a memo dated 1/17/2026 — and first reported by Kevin Landrigan at the Union Leader — claiming his party has the 2026 governor’s race in the bag.
“New Hampshire Democrats see a clear path to winning back the corner office in 2026,” Buckley wrote. “(Kelly Ayotte’s) weak standing, toxic agenda, and failure to stand up to Trump — coupled with our recent wins in November — spell doom for Ayotte in 2026.”
Nobody in New Hampshire political circles believes this, almost certainly including Buckley. (Then again, he apparently believes the 2024 election was stolen from Kamala Harris, so…)
The glaring problem: You can’t beat somebody with nobody. And that’s what NHDems have: Nobody.
Last month, the buzz was that Cinde Warmington was in, and she would announce in mid-January.
Last week, a new rumor hit. Not only was Warmington running, but Portsmouth Mayor Deaglan McEachern is getting in the race, too.
Monday Memo readers will note that, as of today, Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte remains, officially and unofficially, unopposed. (Nothing personal, Mr. Kiper.)
Meanwhile, Ayotte continues to raise more money than Gov. Chris Sununu ever did — she’s got about $2.1 million in the bank — and faces no serious opposition in her party.
It’s true that the filing period doesn’t open until June, and that former state Sen. Molly Kelly didn’t announce her decision to run against Sununu until April 2018. But it’s also true that, as the late, great John DiStaso reported at the time, she had been “testing the proverbial gubernatorial waters for several months. She’s been crisscrossing the state meeting with supporters and rank-and-file voters.”
Not Warmington. Or McEachern, for that matter.
So, what’s up?
“I’ve been told she is in 1,000 percent,” one source inside Democratic circles told Monday Memo.
But another said, “She’s still telling donors she’s ‘thinking about it.’ At this point, that sounds like ‘no.’”
Still another source: “There is no reason for McEachern to run now. He, like all those with youth, has time on his side. Waiting is an asset he has that others (Warmington) do not.”
But it was McEachern, not Warmington, who had an op-ed in the UnionLeader last week on New Hampshire history and our nation’s founding. “Portsmouth has led before and will lead again,” McEachern wrote.
Meanwhile, “Cinde’s only appeared once in public since losing the primary when Cory Booker was up here,” one Democrat noted.
One telling data point, as a GOP House member pointed out: “The State House is like a big high school. All anyone does is gossip. If Warmington was talking to anyone in the legislature about running, or if she was calling their donors, it would get out.”
And then there’s this: The CindeWarmington.com domain was renewed on Sept 22, 2025. DeaglanMceachern.com is still available at GoDaddy.com.
So either Gov. Kelly Ayotte is going to be given a second-term freebie, or there’s going to be a knock-down, drag-out Democratic primary that, as of mid-January, nobody has even started fundraising for yet. Both of those outcomes seem unlikely.
The conventional wisdom, both on and off the record, is that Warmington will eventually get in the race. But that raises the most interesting question of all: Why? Why would Warmington do it?
Ask insiders, and you’ll get circular logic: Warmington is going to run because the Democrats don’t have anyone else. Maybe. But how is that Warmington’s problem? She doesn’t need to run, and given that she’s 68 and at the end of her political career, how does it benefit her to lose another election?
Plus, it’s not going to be fun. First, Warmington looked unhappy during the entire 2024 primary, and that was running against the less-than-daunting Joyce Craig.
Warmington must have seen how Ayotte ran in 2024. It wasn’t pretty. Just ask Chuck Morse.
Ayotte’s strategy is to hit hard and keep hitting. And, with help from the Republican Governors Association, she’ll have plenty of money to do it with. (The Democratic governors are still on the fence re: New Hampshire). Warmington’s history as a lobbyist for opioids will be back front and center, and that’s just going to be the opening bid.
Then there’s the Democrats’ own desperation. No doubt Warmington’s getting calls from people showing her Buckley’s memo and how Ayotte’s only +7 with the voters, and Trump’s hurting the GOP brand, and the U.S. Senate race is going to drive out Democrat turnout, etc.
But if you’re Warmington, who is no dummy, you’re asking, “If this is such a great opportunity, why are Democrats begging for someone to seize it?”
The one thing everyone agrees on: Every day without a Democratic opponent is a good day for Kelly Ayotte.
YOUR MONDAY MEMO-ROLOGY FORECAST:
How does getting trashed by the Boston Globe, Concord Monitor and NHPR make Rep. Kristin Noble (R-Bedford) winner of the week? Are you kidding? She’s a Republican. This is like winning the anti-woke lottery. Her Signal chatter about why conservatives would love schools “segregated” from liberals was clearly not related in any way to race — despite the media coverage to the contrary — and gave someone whose race was just one of 424 a chance to break out, raise some money and get some buzz from the conservative base. All blue skies for Rep. Noble.
The forecast is far worse for the news outlets who chose to run with this lame oppo dump from the Democrat-funded “pink slime” site run by former NHDP comms guy Colin Booth. Once the newsrooms knew the accusation of racism was bogus, where’s the story? Printing it is just more evidence the press is biased, something voters already believe. The one upside: Several outlets acknowledged that Booth’s site is a Soros-funded, Dem Party operation.
“DON’T PUT THAT IN THE MEMO!
(Stuff people said that we weren’t supposed to tell you about.)
“Ross Berry has never been that butch.” — Response to a Twitter meme showing the Weare Republican heroically wielding a sword and shield.
ACTION MEMO: WAZZUP AT THE STATE HOUSE THIS WEEK
No legislative sessions again this week as both House and Senate committees continue wading through the hundreds of legislative proposals that need public hearings over the next two months. This week’s agenda includes guns, weed, and school funding.
The House and Senate each take up Democratic education funding proposals this week.