The latest St. Anselm’s poll regarding the US Senate race provides some interesting insight into the state of the primary among Republicans. And the reaction to that poll is worth noting as well:
There is no Republican frontrunner yet in the US Senate race.
Hassan is not as weak as Republicans like to say. She is underwater in job approval by only 2 points, 49 percent disapprove of her job performance and 47 percent approve of her job performance. This is within the margin of error of this poll.
Hassan wins against each announced Republican US Senate candidate even though the generic congressional ballot has Republicans ahead.
Chuck Morse entered the race about three months ago and trails Hassan by 7 points. Twenty-one percent are undecided.
Kevin Smith entered the race about the time Morse did and trails Hassan by 10 points. Twenty-two percent are undecided.
Don Bolduc has been campaigning for the US Senate for over three years and trails Hassan by 5 points. Seventeen percent are undecided. And Hassan polls stronger against Bolduc (44 percent) than she does against Morse (43 percent);
The margin of error for this poll is +/- 2.8 percent. So when one takes into account the margin of error, Morse and Bolduc are about the same and Smith is a couple of percentage points behind.
Bolduc’s claim to be the frontrunner because of this poll is yet another example of Bolduc’s deceptive campaign and tin ear for politics. He has been campaigning for about three and a half years, received the media attention as a losing primary candidate in 2020, has been on television regarding the Ukraine war embarrassing himself and has been unable to raise money.
If Bolduc continues his woeful fundraising effort, then he should withdraw from this race. [Bolduc says his campaign has raised “just north of $100,000” in the first quarter of 2022.] If Bolduc stays in this race, regrettably, he will again be the useful idiot of the Democrats because he will alienate the voters who will decide the US Senate race.
Both Morse and Smith need to post significant fundraising amounts for the 1st quarter. If one of them does not demonstrate viability as a candidate through fundraising, then that person should withdraw. If neither can raise money, then Hassan might have a clear path to reelection.
[Smith has announced raising $410,000 in just over nine weeks since Smith joined the race. Morse’s campaign has not released its Q1 numbers.]
Sadly, money really matters in a US Senate race especially when a candidate like Hassan has almost 100% name identification.
Hassan will have as much money as she desires. While a Republican does not need to match the amount she will have, a Republican must have a significant amount of money to reach those voters in the middle who decide elections.