Massachusetts typically holds its state primary election a week before New Hampshire’s, so the 2026 governor’s races are likely on the same timeline.
When Republican Brian Shortsleeve jumped into the Massachusetts governor’s race on Monday, he was the second prominent GOP candidate stepping up to take on Democrat Maura Healey. And Bay State political professionals say there could very well be more.
But in New Hampshire, not a single Democrat has announced plans to challenge GOP Gov. Kelly Ayotte. The rumor mill is relatively quiet as well.
Similar calendar, similar filing deadlines, very different state of the races.
It’s not that Granite State Democrats are biding their time. U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas is already running hard for the U.S. Senate, and state Democrat Party Vice Chair Maura Sullivan is a declared candidate for his congressional seat.
So, why is that in Massachusetts, where the state GOP is on life support, Republicans already have enough gubernatorial candidates for a primary, but Granite State Democrats — who control all four federal offices — don’t even have a solid rumor?
New Hampshire GOP chair Jim MacEachern says it’s a sign of Ayotte’s strength.
“Kelly Ayotte ran circles around Joyce Craig and beat her like a drum,” MacEachern told NHJournal. “From day one in office, Kelly has been getting things done — empowering law enforcement to deport criminal illegal aliens, fixing the broken bail system, and fighting back against the Democrats’ attempts to MASS up New Hampshire. Running against Gov. Ayotte is a great way to end a political career. What Democrat wants to sign up for that?”
Another sign of the Democratic Party’s weakness: the Manchester mayor’s race.
In 2023, the city’s three-term Democrat was gearing up to run for governor. Today, Craig is persona non grata in her own party, and first-term Republican Mayor Jay Ruais still doesn’t have an announced Democratic opponent for this November’s election.
Veteran political consultant and former New Hampshire Republican National Committeeman Tom Rath has a different theory.
“Massachusetts has a 4-year term for governor, ours is two years,” he told NHJournal. “So, Healey has a longer period of governing to defend. Kelly Ayotte has barely begun her fourth month, so there is a longer record to debate in Massachusetts than there is here.”
Healey, on the other hand, has provided Republicans with “more red meat to sink their collective teeth into than the old Rte. 1 Hilltop Steak House,” one veteran MassGOP political operative told NHJournal on background.
From steadfastly denying that Massachusetts is a “sanctuary state” even as taxpayers are on the hook for billions to pay for housing for illegal immigrants, to suggesting a new tax on prescription drugs, there’s no shortage of topics to rile up the state’s Republican base — no matter how small it may be.
As of February, there were a little more than 423,000 registered Republicans living in Massachusetts compared to 1.3 million registered Democrats.
At the same time, New Hampshire Democrats haven’t been able to win the Corner Office since 2014, while Massachusetts had a Republican governor as recently as 2023.
Wendy Wakeman, a veteran Massachusetts GOP political strategist, told NHJournal that Trump’s defeat of Kamala Harris last fall resulted in a “political atomic bomb” for Healey, who, as attorney general, sued the first Trump administration more than 200 times.
“She was banking on having a Democrat as president, and as soon as she became governor, that’s when the floodgates opened for illegal immigration,” Wakeman said. “Maura was all too happy to take on that burden because she thought it would pay off with a Democrat in the White House.”
For Healey, however, the unthinkable happened.
Joyce Craig and Gov. Maura Healey (D-Mass.) campaigning in New Hampshire in 2024.
“Don’t forget, she spent a lot of time campaigning for Kamala and against Kelly Ayotte,” Wakeman added. “If Harris had won, then Healey would be at the belle of the D.C. debutante ball, and instead she’s got Trump and is persona non grata in the White House.”
All of those challenges — including an Oval Office bent on showing blue states like Massachusetts no mercy in the federal funding department — mean whoever is running the Bay State can expect hard times to continue for the foreseeable future, according to Wakeman.
“And this is what opens the door for quality challengers,” Wakeman added.
As for Ayotte, Rath said her true test will be how she navigates the state budget battle.
“In New Hampshire, it’s hard to get a read on a governor until at least their first budget has made its way through the legislature,” said Rath. “And we have a ways to go there.”
Patrick Hynes, a veteran New Hampshire-based GOP political operative, sees the lack of competition as a sign of Ayotte’s strength.
“She’s proactive on immigration, working to prevent Massachusetts-style crime from spilling over the border, and working with our Republican legislature to keep New Hampshire a low-tax, high-opportunity state,” he added. “Granite Staters want safe communities, strong borders, and a business-friendly climate. And Kelly Ayotte delivers.”
Massachusetts, he said, is a different story. Hynes said Healey has “failed to manage the state’s immigration crisis with even a whisper of competence” while alienating business owners as they navigate high taxes.
“That kind of dysfunction attracts serious challengers who see an opportunity to do better.”
Rath, meanwhile, has a unique perspective as a longtime Republican political force in New Hampshire who has all but abandoned the party amid the rise of Trumpian politics.
He said Democrats cannot simply run campaigns based on tying the governor to Trump. Granite State Democrats spent millions unsuccessfully trying that strategy against Gov. Chris Sununu, and it’s not going to work against Ayotte.
“Kelly was attorney general, a U.S. senator, and has been a significant player here for quite a while,” said Rath. “And she won a pretty substantial electoral victory.
“Kelly Ayotte is not Donald Trump. New Hampshire voters understand the difference.”
