The new Granite State Poll from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center shows Vice President Kamala Harris has moved from a relatively unknown Democratic politician to the frontrunner in the fight for the state’s four Electoral College votes.
Harris holds a 54 to 43 percent lead over former President Donald Trump, significantly larger than the eight-point margin of Joe Biden’s New Hampshire victory in 2020. Trump’s support has remained steady at 43 percent for the past three months and even ticked up from his 41 percent in May’s UNH survey.
But Harris has soared since being given her party’s nomination after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race. Despite her failed 2020 presidential bid and bad reviews regarding her performance in New Hampshire then, Harris jumped to a 49-43 percent lead in the first UNH poll. That support has risen to 54 percent, “largely due to consolidating support among Democrats and left-leaning voters,” according to the UNH report.
“Nearly all New Hampshire Democrats (98 percent), self-described progressives (>99 percent), liberals (99 percent), and socialists (99 percent) support Harris, each slightly higher than in August, while 64 percent of moderates support Harris, up from 59 percent in August.”
“Trump enjoys the support of 88 percent of Republicans,” according to UNH.
Few Granite State political veterans believe the state is in play in November. While Trump came within 3,000 votes of defeating Hillary Clinton here in 2016, the state has backed the Democratic nominee in every election since 1992, except George W. Bush in 2000.
However, the margin of victory is a great concern to supporters of downballot Republicans like gubernatorial candidate Kelly Ayotte and candidates for the State House.
“New Hampshire voters are pretty savvy and know how to split tickets. But these UNH polling numbers out today are daunting for Republican candidates,” said longtime campaign strategist Tom Rath on social media. “Governor is the first race on the ballot below president. That positioning will be a test of New Hampshire voters’ split ticket skills.”
UNH political science professor Dante Scala responded, “Put another way, November is shaping up to be a strong test of Kelly Ayotte’s ability to attract crossover Harris voters.”
Some Republicans say they aren’t worried, noting that Gov. Chris Sununu wildly outperformed Trump in 2020, winning more than 516,000 votes the same night Trump earned just 366,000. But that was Sununu’s performance after two terms as a governor. In 2016, when he was a first-time candidate for the job (as Ayotte is this year), Sununu won 354,000, not far from Trump’s 345,000.
And Republicans working to hold onto the New Hampshire House are also concerned that a massive Harris win would make it very hard — if not impossible — to win a majority.
What’s the magic number?
House Majority Leader Jason Osborne (R-Auburn) says he’s confident.
“With Kelly Ayotte at the head of our ticket, and Republicans all down the ballot rallied behind her, focused on addressing the issues facing everyday Granite Staters, I have no doubt we will see a strong victory in November. Our candidates are pounding the pavement tirelessly to get our word out to the voters. At the end of the road, hard work and just good sense is bound to prevail.”
Not everyone agrees.
“Trump has to keep it to single digits,” one GOP campaign operative told NHJournal on background. “I don’t trust UNH polls, but if this is even close to the final number, we’re [expletive].”
