For months, the conventional wisdom has been that the most likely date of the New Hampshire primary was January 23. On Saturday, Iowa Republicans did their part to help make that happen, setting January 15 as the date for their caucus.
According to a statement from the Iowa GOP, the party’s State Central Committee met and officially set the date in a unanimous vote.
“After our state legislature and governor took needed action earlier this year to preempt Iowa Democrats’ plans to derail the Iowa Caucus by running a de facto primary election instead, we are also proud to affirm that Iowa will continue to honor our half-century-old promises to the other carveout states,” Republican Party of Iowa Chairman Jeff Kaufmann said after the vote.
“We remain committed to maintaining Iowa’s cherished First-in-the-Nation Caucuses, and look forward to holding a historic caucus in the coming months and defeating Joe Biden come November 2024.”
Last January the Democratic National Committee voted to strip Iowa and New Hampshire of their traditional places in the primary calendar, pushing South Carolina into the top spot. But they didn’t have the cooperation of Democrats in the Hawkeye or Granite States, and both state party organizations have been pressing ahead with plans to keep their place in line.
New Hampshire Secretary of State David Scanlan, who has the sole legal authority to set the primary date, recently told NHJournal yet again that the Granite State would be holding the first primary — period.
Scanlan told Fox News on Saturday that he expects to announce the filing period this fall and then formally set the date soon after. And that date will be at least seven days before any similar contest, as required by law. Assuming Nevada and South Carolina wait until February to hold their contests, January 23 in New Hampshire works just fine.
If anything, a January 23 date would leave plenty of time for the rest of the calendar. The South Carolina GOP set their primary for Saturday, February 24, and the state’s Democrats are expected to move their primary to the same date. And Nevada recently passed a law setting their primary for the first Tuesday in February — February 6, 2024.
But Nevada Republicans are suing to both keep their caucus system in place (as opposed to a primary election) and to set the date as they choose.
Meanwhile, the Democratic National Committee continues to flail in its efforts to impose its calendar on the states. Almost nobody expects the DNC’s calendar to play any significant role in the 2024 primary. Under the DNC plan, South Carolina would go first on February 3, 2024, followed by New Hampshire and Nevada three days later. Georgia and Michigan were supposed to move up in the calendar, too.
Instead, South Carolina is all but certain to hold its “First in the South” primary in its usual fourth-place slot, Georgia has already been dropped from the early calendar slots and Michigan’s timetable is still uncertain.
