New Hampshire’s First in the Nation primary is officially less than 50 days away.
With seven weeks to go, Gov. Chris Sununu continues to insist that the election is in flux, the voters aren’t really engaged left, and there is still “plenty of time” for the state of play to change.
But the dozen or so GOP strategists, insiders, and grassroots activists contacted by NHJournal for our Week Seven “Granite State Guru” analysis say time is running out, and last week was yet another win for the prohibitive frontrunner, former President Donald Trump.
As one “Guru” put it: “Trump does very little and still commands a huge lead. He wins while doing nothing. He had the best week.”
GOP strategist Michael Dennehy agreed.
“This race is the pro versus the minor leaguers. They aren’t even playing on the same ballfield.”
But some New Hampshire Republicans hoping for an alternative to Trump next November see hope behind Nikki Haley’s continued rise.
“Haley’s endorsement from Americans for Prosperity Action and the new super PAC is a huge boost,” said Republican communications professional Alicia Xanthopoulos.
She’s not alone.
“Haley had the best week by far,” another insider said. “Picking up the AFP support and collecting big sums doing the Paul Singer tour in NYC has catapulted her into a league of her own. Ron Desantis and Jeff Roe have been calling this a two-person race for months. It’s time they recognize that the other person is Nikki Haley.”
The general dismissal of DeSantis’ Granite State prospects is somewhat surprising given the positive reviews he received after facing off against Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-Calif.) on Fox News last week. DeSantis supporters say they had a huge media week thanks to the debate, pushing the rest of the field off the front pages for several days. The impact will be felt, they say.
Meanwhile, Gov. Chris Christie sat down with the State Employees Association, an unusual move by a Republican, and one that grabbed some earned media for the former New Jersey governor, too. It also emphasized his reach to non-traditional GOP voters.
But the buzz remains around Haley (after adding the obligatory “Setting aside Trump’s huge lead…”)
The Granite State Guru’s current #FITN breakdown:
- Trump: 42.9%
- Haley: 27%
- DeSantis: 12. 5%
- Christie: 8.5%
- Ramaswamy: 6%
Two items were noted by multiple Gurus in separate conversations.
First, Trump is on the air in New Hampshire with a TV ad hitting Biden hard and, in the opinion of at least one expert, effectively. While political insiders are parsing the tea leaves of “Haley vs. DeSantis,” many Trump-friendly primary voters will pick up the message that the primary is over and it’s time for the Trump vs. Biden main event.
Second, both Christie and Haley have notable numbers of non-affiliated voters turning out for their events, and they have a message to appeal to those GOP-primary eligible voters. “Don’t look past the fact that the Democrats’ primary is a confusing mess, and voters who just want to beat Trump — and don’t care what election they’re beating him in — may be the surprise turnout story of the primary,” one Guru said.
Gov. Chris Sununu on Monday predicted record turnout in New Hampshire’s Republican presidential primary. And in a podcast interview over the weekend, GOP strategist and part-time Granite Stater Michael Murphy said there could be an unseen 1o percent of voters who never vote in GOP primaries but turn out to vote against Trump on January 23.
If they’re right, that math could add up to a major surprise in the First in the Nation primary.
