New Hampshire Journal readers believe Republican Kelly Ayotte has the race for governor locked down, and they’re evenly split on whether Donald Trump can do what he’s never done before: win the Granite State.
More than 300 NHJournal readers responded to the non-scientific survey on Sunday. And while it’s not a poll, it is an informative glimpse into the attitudes of GOP-leaning, politically active voters on the eve of Election Day.
Among the results:
Asked who is going to be elected president, 80 percent predicted Trump, 20 percent predicted Vice President Kamala Harris.
But when asked which of the two will carry New Hampshire on Tuesday, the respondents were evenly split: 50 percent said Trump, 48 percent Harris.
A common refrain in the comments is that NHJournal readers aren’t thrilled about the prospect of either candidate being sworn in next January.
“If Trump wins, God help us. If Harris wins, God help us,” one person wrote.
“Again we are faced with selecting the best of two lousy choices in most races. Our political system is broken,” another posted.
Where the readers are in overwhelming agreement: Predicting Republican Kelly Ayotte will beat Democrat Joyce Craig in the governor’s race. More than 90 percent predicted Ayotte, while just 8 percent picked Craig. Recent polling gives Ayotte about a four-point advantage over her Democratic opponent.
Asked which ad most stands out from this election cycle, the most commonly-named choice was Ayotte’s ad sitting with her husband Joe, attempting to crack jokes around the kitchen table. Most campaign professionals who spoke to NHJournal panned the ad, but it appears to be making an impact.
Also mentioned: “The ad that says ‘Craig wants to do for the state what she did for Manchester.'”
The respondents were overwhelmingly supporters of both Trump and Ayotte. Nearly 80 percent said they’re voting for Trump and more than 90 percent are backing Ayotte. So, the responses are not at all a measure of the likely outcome in New Hampshire. But it does show the confidence New Hampshire GOP activists have in their ticket.
And more than 70 percent say Trump’s odds of winning both the White House and New Hampshire have increased over the past month. They perceive momentum is on their side — a view many national political pundits would reject. And polls continue to show a race with relatively little movement.
But veteran GOP strategist Michael Dennehy says he sees movement in the electorate and Trump could be within range of pulling an upset.
“I think it is definitely tightening in New Hampshire. Trump has been on fire for the last several days,” Dennehy told radio host Jack Heath Monday morning. “His closing message is perfect. His advertising is perfect, and Harris continues to run a negative campaign, only mentioning what she believes is wrong with Trump, nothing about what she’s going to do for America, and I think it’s killing her.”
For the NHJournal respondents, the top issue in this election is taxes (30 percent), followed by inflation/high prices (28 percent) and illegal immigration (22 percent). In a sign of how far apart the bases of the two parties are in this race, only four percent picked abortion as the top issue.
NHJournal also asked readers how their neighbors view this election. The top answer is that, like the readers, their neighbors are voting for Trump and are excited to do so, though it’s just 42 percent. Another 22 percent said their neighbors are voting for Trump, but they aren’t thrilled about it.
“The sooner Donald Trump exits the political stage, the better for American democracy,” one commenter posted, but that was the minority view by far.
“I pray President Trump wins by a landslide,” wrote another, speaking for the majority. “Including Trump winning New Hampshire!”
