A solid majority of New Hampshire voters — including almost half of Democrats — say they are concerned about Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s age as she considers running for a fourth term in office. And if she ran against former Gov. Chris Sununu (R), she would lose in a landslide.
Those are the findings of the latest NHJournal/Praecones Analytica poll released Monday.
The survey of 626 New Hampshire registered voters also found them split largely down party lines on President Donald Trump’s job performance and the way his Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is cutting government spending.
And perhaps another problematic finding for the state’s senior senator, Granite State voters overwhelmingly support term limits for members of Congress.
Shaheen turned 78 last month, and would be three weeks shy of 80 if she is sworn in for another term after the 2026 election. Asked how concerned they are that age would impact Shaheen’s ability to effectively serve New Hampshire, more than 60 percent said they were either “extremely” (26 percent) or “somewhat” (35 percent) concerned.
Only 16 percent said they aren’t concerned at all.
More than 75 percent of Republicans expressed concern, which is to be expected. But 55 percent of undeclared voters agreed, as did 49 percent of Democrats.
By comparison, in April 2022, more than 78 percent of New Hampshire Democrats said they were very or somewhat confident in former President Joe Biden’s physical and mental ability to handle a crisis.
Just over two years later, Biden was out of the race.
“Sen. Shaheen appears to be suffering from the halo effect of Joe Biden’s decline. Voters are clearly concerned about the age and fitness of older politicians,” said Greg Moore, regional director of Americans for Prosperity. “Whether Republicans can capitalize on that remains to be seen.”
In theoretical head-to-head matches, Shaheen currently holds a solid lead 55-45 percent lead over likely GOP candidate Scott Brown.
If conservative Commissioner of Education Frank Edelblut chose to challenge her, she’s got a 59 to 41 percent lead.
But if four-term governor Sununu chose to challenge her, the new poll shows he would handily defeat her, 54 to 46 percent.
Among unaffiliated voters, he leads 52-48 percent.
Sununu declined an opportunity to run for U.S. Senate in both 2020 and 2022, and has adamantly insisted he has no interest in the job. But the fact that Shaheen is trailing a Republican so badly, in a state that hasn’t elected a GOP senator since 2010, is a sign voters are open to a change.
“Shaheen’s potential vulnerability on the age issue may be contributing to former Gov. Sununu’s nearly nine point lead in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup,” said Praecones Analytica pollster Jonathan Klingler.
“Notably, respondents were not asked about their concerns about Sen. Shaheen’s age until after being asked about potential 2026 matchups. Bringing up the senator’s age before the 2026 matchup questions would likely drive Shaheen’s numbers down further in those possible scenarios.”
While Shaheen shrugged off Republican Corky Messner in 2020 without a serious fight, she narrowly defeated Brown by three points in 2014.
One of Shaheen’s most valuable assets in 2020 was Trump. Polls consistently showed him underwater by 10 point or more among Granite State voters, and he lost to Biden here by eight points that year.
But Trump only lost New Hampshire to Vice President Kamala Harris last November by 2.8 percent.
In the NHJournal poll, Trump is underwater by six points (47 approve/41 disapprove), which is better than most of his previous presidency, though still not great.
Granite Staters are divided on DOGE as well. While 51 percent say the Musk-led initiative is “cutting too much and creating chaos,” 49 percent either say it’s “just about right” (29 percent) or should be doing more (20 percent).
One topic New Hampshire is united on: term limits. Not only do 74 percent of voters support limiting members of Congress (House and Senate) to no more than 12 years in office, but a massive 67 percent of Democrats agree.
Shaheen will have served for 18 years at the end of her current term.
“A three-term Democrat from New Hampshire should be a shoo-in for reelection,” one longtime New Hampshire political operative told NHJournal on background. “My guess is that her staff is showing her these same numbers and that’s the reason she hasn’t announced if she’s going to run again.”
