Granite State Democrats are challenging Republican Marc Tremblay’s razor-thin win in last week’s special House election, but the ballot layout makes their effort look like a long shot at best.
Democrat hopes to fill the vacancy, created when GOP Rep. Brian Valerino left to become warden at the Northern New Hampshire Correctional Facility, rest on 13 ballots being appealed to the New Hampshire Ballot Law Commission (BLC).
Tremblay edged out Democrat Corinne Cascadden on Election Day by a vote of 878-864. It was one of the few GOP bright spots — along with Manchester Mayor Jay Ruais’s 18-point win — on a night when Democrats posted impressive wins across the country.
Democrats requested a recount, which was conducted last week by the Secretary of State’s Office. It turned up nine additional votes for Cascadden, reducing Tremblay’s margin of victory to five votes, 878-873. During that process, Tremblay’s team challenged eight ballots that voters had left incomplete or sloppily marked. Cascadden’s team contested another five for the same reasons.
Secretary of State David Scanlan issued a final ruling on each contested ballot, sealing Tremblay’s five-vote victory.
House Democratic Caucus Chair Matt Wilhelm (D-Manchester) said last week that Democrats would appeal to the BLC, asking the five-member panel to overrule Scanlan’s determination. To prevail, the BLC would have to agree with the Democratic appeal on all five ballots challenged by the Democrats while not changing any of the ballots challenged by Republicans.
If Democrats can run the table, it would create a tie.
In theory, that is a realistic possibility. But a closer look at the specific ballots in question highlights the tough odds facing Cascadden’s appeal.
Note, for example, challenged ballots 7-10. They all involve votes counted for Tremblay that Democrats want thrown out, arguing that marks on the ballot show that voters either intended to cross out their vote for the Republican candidate or cast a vote for more than one candidate, creating an overvote.
For instance, ballot 7 has the oval neatly filled in for Tremblay with a messier oval in the write-in line, but with no candidate written in. The BLC would need to determine that the voter intended to vote for both Tremblay and some unnamed write-in candidate. Ballot 9 contained a filled-in oval for Tremblay and a thin mark near Cascadden’s name. The BLC would need to determine that the voter intended to vote for both candidates to change it to an overvote.
Ballots 8-9 would provide more hope for Democrats as they will argue that the voter filled in the oval for Tremblay and then crossed out their vote. Republicans will likely argue that the voters checked the Tremblay box before going back to fill it in completely. The problem for Democrats is that even if they were to prevail on these ballots, they would face an identical issue on ballot 12, challenged by the GOP for the same reason. The BLC would need to toss both Tremblay votes on ballots 8-9 while preserving Cascadden’s vote on ballot 12 for Cascadden to close the gap.
Cascadden has until 5:00 p.m. Thursday to seek an appeal to the Ballot Law Commission.
Tremblay’s win would give Republicans a 217-177-1 majority in the New Hampshire House following the resignation of Tuftonborough Republican Glenn Cordelli on Wednesday.
Cordelli is moving out of state to be closer to family.
