While their party was spreading the “joy” at the Democratic National Convention Wednesday, news on the job front was not so good for the Biden-Harris administration. Its own Department of Labor announced it was erasing more than 800,000 jobs from its reports, another potential trouble spot for the economy as the November election approaches.
The good news: The wave of revisions largely missed New Hampshire.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) jobs revision showed the economy had 818,000 fewer jobs (as of March 2024) than previously estimated during the previous 12 months.
U.S. House Budget Committee Chairman Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) noted “all the net job loss coming from the private sector.
“Based on more comprehensive data released from state unemployment tax records, the Biden Bureau of Labor Statistics acknowledges they were way off on the number of new jobs created between March of 2023 and March of 2024 by almost one million or 30 percent, which is five times their average margin of error,” Arrington said.
But New Hampshire’s job growth numbers held mostly steady, according to New Hampshire Employment Security economist Greg David.
“For New Hampshire, nonfarm employment estimates for March 2024 were reduced by 2,600 jobs, or 0.4 percent. While the revised employment totals weren’t released, employment growth between March 2023 and March 2024 would still be approximately 1.1 percent.”
Even better, David said, “Most data indicates a job market that is slowing but still strong. The number of unfilled job openings is declining, but it is still above pre-pandemic levels.”
The national job number revision comes at an inopportune time for Vice President Harris and her bid to suceede her fellow Democrat, Joe Biden. Polls show most Americans believe the country is on the wrong track (63 percent) and the current economic situation in their country is bad (56 percent).
One reason is that income has not kept up with rising costs. As a result, consumer debt has reached a record high of $17.8 trillion. That’s more than $3 trillion higher than when the Biden-Harris administration began.
Again, New Hampshire has dodged the bullet, ranking in the top 10 for individual income. It also ranks 49th for lowest credit card debt burden compared to income.
Still, there’s no doubt the red-hot Granite State economy is cooling. One metric David looks at is “workers voluntarily quitting jobs. A high number of voluntary quits is generally a sign that workers feel confident there are good job opportunities available. Layoffs were historically low in 2022 and 2023, and have gradually been increasing back to pre-pandemic levels.”
“Wage growth has slowed as well, a sign that employers no longer need to offer substantial wage increases to attract or retain workers,” David wrote in an August 2024 NHES report. “Through June, 2024 earnings for private employees in New Hampshire had increased 2.6 percent compared to the previous year. Wage growth had been over four percent per year in 2022 and 2023, and nearly six percent in 2021, the beginning of the Great Resignation.”
The economy is certain to be a central issue in the upcoming New Hampshire elections, both at the state and federal level. Harris has proposed imposing government-mandated price controls on groceries, an approach that was tried (and failed) in the 1970s. Economists from both sides of the aisle, including President Barack Obama’s top advisor, have panned the idea as economically unsound.
However, none of the New Hampshire Democrats currently running for governor or Congress, including U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas, would answer when asked by NHJournal if they supported Harris’ price control plan.
Granite State Republicans, on the other hand, are united in their opposition.
If New Hampshire voters are given the choice between a Republican running to continue the economic policies of the past eight years or a Democrat who embraces the Biden-Harris economic policies — which just demonstrated were even less successful than believed — it would appear the Republican is likely to have the upper hand.
