Two different polls of Granite State voters released Monday found the same surprising thing.
New Hampshire Republicans are still in the 2026 race — because New Hampshire Democrats aren’t getting the job done.
Since the shellacking Republicans took in New Jersey and Virginia earlier this month — not to mention the victory of a verified socialist in New York City — the news for the GOP has been, well, not great. Affordability, health care, SNAP benefits, Jeffrey Epstein — these are not great issues for Republicans, and they have dominated the news.
And yet both the Granite State Poll, a States of Opinion Project conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, and the St. Anselm College Survey Center poll show it’s Democrats whose support is sliding, while Donald Trump and the GOP are holding steady.
Compare first-term U.S. Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D) and first-term Gov. Kelly Ayotte.
National polls show Trump at or near his lowest numbers and Democrats with a solid lead in the generic ballot. Goodlander has marched in lockstep with her party, voting to shut down the government and attacking Trump as a threat to democracy. So her numbers should be rising with the Democratic tide, right?
“Goodlander’s net favorability has narrowed from +11 in August to just +1 (40%-39%),” reports Neil Levesque at Saint Anselm. “Her ballot lead over [Republican Lily Tang] Williams has narrowed from 18 points to just 5 (40%-35%).”
Meanwhile, Ayotte is the top elected Republican in the state, so it would make sense that some of the bad news for her party would blow back on her.
Instead, both polls find she’s the most popular elected official in the state. Better still — or worse for New Hampshire Democrats (and a lot worse for Cinde Warmington) — the UNH survey shows her approval steadily rising, from 47 percent over the summer to 54 percent now.
Is the news that New Hampshire Republicans are overachieving, or that Democrats are underperforming?
For example, representing a purple-blue state where Trump is deeply underwater, and Republicans haven’t won a Senate race since 2010, should be easy pickings — and solid polling — for U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas. Instead, UNH finds his support sliding from 65 to 57 percent — and that’s among Democrats. The share of undecideds in his primary race against two unknown progressives has jumped from 20 to 30 percent.
Meanwhile, Pappas’ margin over John E. Sununu — who hasn’t run for office since the George W. Bush administration — is within the margin of error, the SACSC found, and his eight-point lead over Scott Brown is hardly impressive.
And in the SACSC poll, the Democrats’ generic-ballot advantage in New Hampshire has fallen to four points, while in the new Marist/NPR/PBS poll, it just hit a nationwide record of 14 points. That’s the biggest lead Marist has seen since 2017.
The RealClearPolitics average gives national Democrats a five-point advantage, but the gap has been growing, not shrinking.
Even Trump is outperforming in New Hampshire — comparatively speaking. “As in August, 57 percent of respondents have an unfavorable opinion of the president, while 43 percent have a favorable opinion. This is identical to his job approval,” Levesque reports.
Still, nobody’s breaking out the champagne at the NHGOP. New Hampshire Republicans running with Trump at the top of the ticket and underwater by -14 in 2026 is an uphill climb. But in a state this blue, and with a GOP president this unpopular, there shouldn’t be a climb. These races should be over.
Instead, Pappas and Goodlander are in statistical dead heats, and the Democrats don’t even have a rumor of a candidate to challenge Ayotte.
This is going to change between now and next November: Trump, the economy, energy prices — maybe even Ukraine or Taiwan. But this is the stage in a football game when the team with all the advantages is supposed to put points on the board and put the game away early.
Instead, New Hampshire continues to look competitive in an unfriendly environment for the GOP. Every month that remains true is another good month for the Republican Party.
