Democrats are crowing that their massive victories across the country Tuesday night show 2026 will be a repeat of 2018, when Republicans lost 41 seats in the U.S. House and Democrats took control of the New Hampshire legislature.
Republicans dismiss the results as mostly meaningless. “Democrats won in Democrat states,” is the response. And in New Hampshire, the GOP can point to Mayor Jay Ruais’ 18-point win, and their (rare) victory in a House special election in Berlin. Even former state party chair Fergus Cullen won another term on deep-blue Dover’s City Council.
Who’s right?
Cook Political Report thinks Democrats have the upper hand.
“The results of all of Tuesday night’s election contests — combined with Democratic overperformance in special elections earlier this year by an average of 15 points — point to serious danger for the GOP going into the 2026 midterms. A blue wave is building; the only question now is whether it can be sustained for another twelve months.”
Here are four takeaways for Granite State politics one year before the 2026 midterms.
Yes, Trump was on the ballot — and he will be again in 2026
“‘TRUMP WASN’T ON THE BALLOT, AND SHUTDOWN, WERE THE TWO REASONS THAT REPUBLICANS LOST ELECTIONS TONIGHT,’ according to Pollsters,” the president posted after Tuesday’s disaster became clear.
But President Donald Trump is wrong. He’s always “on the ballot” in the minds of the voters who hate him, just as President Barack Obama was in the 2010 and 2014 midterms.
Need proof? In both New Jersey and Virginia, the GOP nominees’ vote percentage closely tracked Trump’s approval rating.
In Virginia, Winsome Earle-Sears got 42 percent of the vote. Trump’s approval is 39 percent.
In New Jersey, Jack Ciattarelli got 43 percent. Trump’s approval is 42 percent.
In New Hampshire, it’s currently around 43 percent.
That means, assuming there aren’t significant third-party candidates splitting the vote, Gov. Kelly Ayotte and the nominees for U.S. House and Senate will need to outperform Trump’s approval by about seven percent. And they’ll have to do it without the votes of many of his most loyal voters, says veteran GOP strategist Jim Merrill.
“President Trump is an electoral heavyweight with a dynamic and diverse base of voters. However, when he’s not on the ballot, GOP turnout suffers, a chronic challenge that was evident again on Tuesday. He (likely?) won’t be on a ballot again, so finding a solution – fast – is critical,” Merrill said.
Reports of the Democrats’ demise are premature.
“Suddenly, the party the political press wrote off as having no fight, no message, no bench, and no chance has all four,” said Terry Shumaker, who co-chaired Bill Clinton’s New Hampshire presidential campaigns.
Winning school board seats in Nashua and Manchester is hardly breaking new ground. But Democrats in New Hampshire did have a good night — the Ruais race notwithstanding. And while winning the Rochester mayor’s race isn’t going to shift statewide politics, the momentum from Tuesday is almost certainly going to help Democrats recruit more — and better — candidates.
And that includes the governor’s race.
Will one of the thus far reluctant potential candidates, like Portsmouth Mayor Deaglan McEachern, see these results and rethink a challenge to incumbent Ayotte? Will it put more juice behind rumored efforts to get Maura Sullivan to drop her NH-01 primary race and run for governor instead?
On the flip side, says GOP consultant Michael Dennehy, Republicans need to get smart when it comes to picking their nominees if they want to have a shot at winning next year.
“As is almost always the case, the GOP needs to do a better job recruiting candidates. Let’s face it, (Winsome Earle) Sears never had the ability to appeal to centrist voters.”
Former state Sen. Lou D’Allesandro (D), now a principal at NorthBridge Strategies, said the future of his party was on display in New Jersey and Virginia. “I listened to those two (Sherill and Spanberger) campaign, and they were right on target. They listened to the people, and the people have concerns about the economy. So that’s what they ran on.”
Mamdani is going to be a Democrat problem.
It took less than 12 hours for Ayotte to start exploiting the problem that Democratic Socialist Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani represents for the Democrats. Expect more — a lot more — from the GOP.
Which means Granite State Democrats need to figure out how to talk about Mamdani. Their current strategy — pretend they’ve never heard of New York City — isn’t going to hold. If establishment Democrats don’t figure out how to handle the issue, it could inspire more Mamdani-style progressives to challenge them in the primaries (which aren’t until September).
Merrill says the Democrats could benefit from the Mamdani example.
“Democrats may be reluctant to admit it publicly about Zohran Mamdani – an avowed Socialist – but privately, they have to love Mamdani’s campaign style, social media strategy, and Gen Z appeal. He made Cuomo look and sound like a relic, talked authentically about inflation, and was relatable while running up a huge win.”
The Republican base can have Ruais Republicans in 2026 — or no Republicans.
There is a part of the Granite State GOP base that still hasn’t processed the fact that, fairly or not, New Hampshire just doesn’t like Donald Trump. He’s never carried the state, even against a dud of a candidate like Kamala Harris, and his poll numbers are consistently 10 points or more underwater. The idea of a MAGA Republican winning a general election in New Hampshire is pure fantasy.
Which is why grousing from the online Right about Ruais — particularly against the backdrop of a national GOP thrashing — is so bizarre.
“Republicans should be excited to emulate Jay Ruais – a personable, earnest, mainstream conservative problem solver who decisively won a city that in recent years has voted for Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, and Hilary Clinton,” notes Merrill.
Democrat D’Allesandro is more blunt. “Donald Trump just doesn’t understand. The people are hurting. He’s not aware of what’s going on in the real world.”
The bottom line for New Hampshire politics: If 2026 is a traditional midterm election, and the GOP share of the vote closely tracks Trump’s approval rating, Democrats will almost certainly win all three federal races, and the governor’s office will be in play.
