New Hampshire Gov. Kelly Ayotte gave a workmanlike (workperson?) inaugural address Thursday. The former U.S. senator has never been mistaken for Barack Obama when it comes to soaring political rhetoric, but her speech had something just as important:
Strategy.
The secret of being a successful statewide Republican in New Hampshire is no secret at all. Just watch what Gov. Chris Sununu did, and do the same. Find the center-right sweet spot and stay there. Don’t go full MAGA or “Never Trump,” but take care of your base while making sure suburban moms can stay on board.
Ayotte touched the bases for the GOP base in her speech: no new taxes, more Education Freedom Accounts, and banning sanctuary cities.
At the same time, she had lots of talk about bipartisanship, she reiterated her support for public schools and she repeated her oft-stated campaign pledge to veto any legislation adding additional restrictions on abortion in New Hampshire.
Ayotte’s most interesting remarks involved her greatest challenge: the upcoming budget fight.
First, she acknowledged straight up that cuts are coming, so get ready. Her “Commission on Government Efficiency” idea is a clever way to inspire Elon Musk fans and troll Democrats at the same time. But it’s also a declaration that efficiencies (aka “spending cuts”) are on the way — like it or not.
Second, she subtly reminded people why she and the GOP legislature are forced to make those cuts: too much spending in the past.
“We are going to have to make reductions and recalibrate from the higher spending of the last few years,” Ayotte said, a gentle dig at Sununu and the previous GOP majority who spent every dollar that wasn’t nailed down in the last budget.
But Ayotte also showed she sees the Democrats’ counterattack coming, and she started laying the groundwork to rebuff it.
Legislative Democrats have made it clear their strategy for the budget is to stay on the sidelines and attack everything the GOP does.
“With their trifecta in Concord, Gov. Ayotte and Republicans will own this year’s budget, and the agency cuts that will hurt the services all Granite Staters rely on,” House Minority Leader Alexis Simpson said Tuesday. “And we will spend every day over the next two years holding Republicans accountable for their irresponsible economic policies.”
In other words, Republicans will cut, and Democrats will complain. And their specific complaint will be their false claim that cutting state taxes is driving up local property taxes. At their press conference this week, Democratic legislators repeated that accusation again and again.
Simpson repeated it after Ayotte’s speech Thursday.
“I am concerned that after eight years of Republican leadership on the budget, that the tab has really been passed down to local property taxpayers, and we are determined to stop that,” she told The Boston Globe.
Which may explain why Ayotte’s speech included this nugget:
“I would also say to our local officials, don’t forget the importance of keeping the tax burden as low as possible. Property taxes are a burden in New Hampshire in spite of the fact that the state is sending more money than ever before down to the local level.”
Ayotte’s right, as the Josiah Bartlett Center has shown. Under Sununu, the state showered cash on towns and schools. The reason property taxes are so high is because, no matter how many pallets of cash the state drops off, local governments keep spending more.
Democrats have tried to argue that state aid to schools has been “cut” because the gross dollar amount has gone down. But in fact, the per pupil amount has gone straight up because New Hampshire school enrollment has been falling steadily for the past 25 years.
That is the dirty little secret of New Hampshire politics: We are spending a lot more money to educate far fewer students. And most school spending is paid for with local property taxes (and much of the rest with state property taxes.)
If Democrats can successfully blame rising property taxes on “downshifting” costs thanks to the GOP’s spending cuts and refusal to raise taxes, Republicans are going to pay a political price. If Republicans can connect local spending to soaring taxes, Democrats will be stuck defending $30,000 per pupil spending.
Then again, based on what happened at the Kearsarge Regional School District last week, it may not matter. Residents turned out in droves to oppose spending $27,000 per student because that figure was too low. They demanded to keep spending more than $33,000 per pupil.
Mel Thomson famously said, “Low taxes come from low spending.” But what if New Hampshire voters no longer want low spending? What if they want maximum spending and will blame anyone who says they can’t have it?
That’s what Democrats are counting on. Their long-term goal remains to use education funding to force the state to adopt an income tax that they can wield in the name of economic justice and make the rich “pay their fair share.”
This is the budget fight Ayotte is gearing up for, and winning it is going to take strategy and hard work.
