As soon as her new ad hit social media this weekend, GOP operatives started sending it around.
Stefany Shaheen, the Seacoast senator’s daughter, dressed in a “Thurston Howell III” yachting jacket and swirling a glass of chardonnay as she addresses a group of supporters.
Her dialogue is common campaign boilerplate. (“It is the people who call New Hampshire home who compel me in this campaign and for the fight ahead.”) But the imaging caught the eye of the politically astute.
Most campaign professionals believe that her last name and lots of her mom’s donors’ cash will be enough to make U.S. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s daughter the Democratic nominee in the 1st Congressional District. And being the Democratic nominee is nearly always enough to win a New Hampshire federal race. So the smart money is on Stefany Shaheen winning a seat in Congress.
But if she does stumble, it will likely be from tripping over the “Portsmouth pothole.”
There’s a reason why only one Portsmouth mayor has been elected New Hampshire governor since (at least) the Civil War. Portsmouth is not New Hampshire.
It’s not New Hampshire the same way that Martha’s Vineyard isn’t Massachusetts and Charleston isn’t South Carolina. The issue isn’t its extremely affluence — OK, it’s not just the affluence — but the cultural messaging that comes with being one of the Seacoast elite.
And that adds to Stefany Shaheen’s pre-existing political condition: Her innate and potentially off-putting elitism.
The glaring weakness of Shaheen’s candidacy is what they called during the George W. Bush era the “beer question.” Which candidate would you prefer to have a beer with? W. was fortunate to run against two of the least “let’s grab a brewski” candidates in U.S. history: Al “I invented the internet” Gore and John “Do you know who I am?” Kerry.
There is nothing about Stefany Shaheen that says “Let’s grab a beer.” And no, it’s not a gender issue. Gov. Kelly Ayotte was the clear “beer question” winner in 2024. And plenty of Granite Staters would sit at a bar with U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) or local state Sen. Sharon Carson (R-Londonderry).
Stefany’s position as the selected scion of the Shaheen family is an advantage, no doubt. Just ask the Sununus (or Kennedys or Bushes or Clintons, etc.) But it comes with the risk of losing the fight for relatability. How many people grew up in a house with a governor and a U.S. senator? How many people can cut to the front of the line for a congressional seat just by flashing their birth certificate?
It doesn’t help that Shaheen has shamelessly played up her nepotism, with a steady stream of fundraising appeals featuring photos of her mom. And having the entire Shaheen family max out to her campaign — including Stefany’s teenage son, who was in prep school at the time he wrote her a $7,000 check — just highlights the issue again.
When Stefany Shaheen isn’t fundraising off her mom’s celebrity, she’s campaigning on the story of her daughter, Elle. Stefany says Elle is one of the main reasons she’s in this race.
Now, it’s a truly compelling story, raising a daughter who was diagnosed with diabetes at the age of eight. In fact, the story is so compelling that it was the basis for a bestselling book.
But “I’m running for Congress for my mom and my daughter,” invites the voter response, “That’s great! But what’s in it for me?”
A new Gallup poll reported last week that “Americans are closing out the year with a bleak view of the country, its leaders and the economy.” Voters feel let down or betrayed by the political elite, and a record number of members of Congress have announced they’re getting out rather than face voters again.
New Hampshire may not be ground zero for Trump populism. This is a small, affluent state with a disproportionate number of college-educated voters. Perhaps being the “chardonnay” candidate is a feature, not a bug.
But less than 24 hours after Shaheen’s campaign ad dropped, she sent a fundraising appear featuring John Kerry in a Vineyard sweater telling New Hampshire voters there’s still “a chance to right the course.”
Aye aye, Skipper.
Is the Shaheen campaign ship unsinkable? Maybe. But so was the Titanic.
