How long has it been since a mayor of Portsmouth was elected governor? So long that the last guy who did it was a Republican.
Mayor Charles M. Dale was elected governor in 1944 and served two terms. No other mayor of Portsmouth, one of the state’s largest cities, has ever done it.
Could Mayor Deaglan McEachern break the streak? At the moment, it looks like an uphill climb.
First, there’s New Hampshire’s history of giving governors a second term if they choose to run again. Gov. Craig Benson (R) was the first governor denied a second term by the voters since Republican Gov. John Gilbert Winant lost the GOP primary in 1926.
On Wednesday, the current first-term governor, Kelly Ayotte, announced she raised more than $1.1 million in the most recent filing period, bringing her total this cycle to more than $2 million. The latest polls show the incumbent Republican has a net-positive job approval rating, and she’s embraced popular issues like bail reform and Massachusetts bashing.
That may explain why Democrats, who already have a half-dozen candidates running in their NH-01 primary to replace U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas — and Pappas has two primary opponents of his own in the U.S. Senate race — have yet to field a candidate for governor.
Enter McEachern. Or maybe not.
McEachern recently confirmed to the Portsmouth Herald what Democratic sources have been telling NHJournal for weeks: that Democratic leaders have approached him about running for governor.
But the candidate himself was hardly enthusiastic.
“(McEachern) acknowledged if another Democrat stepped forward to ‘carry that mantle, I’d be really happy not to run for governor,’” the paper reported. “He added later in the Dec. 1 interview that there’s a ‘very real possibility this is something I choose not to do.’”
That is a less-than-ideal way to introduce a candidacy.
“This is the worst start to a Democrat campaign for governor since Joyce Craig asked for — and was denied — a do-over on her initial (WMUR) interview,” one veteran operative told NHJournal on background. “Democrats may not like Kelly Ayotte, but they sure as hell seem to fear her.”
McEachern does have some strong political assets. The city council candidate who wins the most votes is named mayor under Portsmouth’s system, and he’s won the job three times. His father, Paul, was a prominent attorney and politician who ran for governor four times, winning the Democratic nomination twice but never taking the Corner Office. And while he leads one of the state’s most progressive cities, he hasn’t staked out an “AOC of New Hampshire” political stance.
New Hampshire GOP Chair Jim MacEachern is no fan. “Deaglan McEachern only knows how to do one thing: raise taxes. Portsmouth already got robbed. Now he wants the rest of New Hampshire to empty their wallets to fund his liberal agenda.”
Jay Surdukowski, a Democratic activist who was born in Portsmouth, is a McEachern booster.
“Deaglan’s proven executive experience would certainly place him above the other potential Democratic candidates by a mile,” Surdukowski told NHJournal.
“He talks about affordability and the housing issues facing us as a state, and when he does, he brings the goods — being in the trenches doing day-to-day governing. He’s close to the taxpayers who are taking the hits, and he’s not in the Concord bubble where ideology seems to trump good policy.”
Other Democrats say it’s very unlikely McEachern will run. (“I think he’s talking about 2028,” one person who’s spoken to McEachern told NHJournal on background.) And there’s still talk that, despite the lack of enthusiasm in the party for an encore performance, former Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington may enter the race.
All the speculation about rumored candidates is rubbing the one Democrat already in the race, former Newmarket Town Councilor Jon Kiper, the wrong way.
“Some folks keep teasing that they ‘might’ run for governor and that there’s ‘plenty of time.’ Not in New Hampshire,” Kiper posted on social media. “Only one late-entry candidate ever won: John Lynch. He faced a massively unpopular governor and spent $11 million of his own money to do it.”
And, Kiper added, “The ‘maybe I’ll run’ crowd is hurting the candidates who are actually doing the work.”
Kiper has a point about the calendar. In every election cycle since 2004, at least one challenger was in the field at this point — not necessarily a formally announced candidate, but in the political mix.
And while some Democratic insiders are making the “there’s plenty of time” argument, none have answered the question: What’s the advantage of staying out? If McEachern or Warmington wants to run, why aren’t they running? Everyone else is.
Republicans say the answer is obvious: Kelly Ayotte.
“Kelly Ayotte has had as good a gubernatorial beginning as I can remember,” said veteran strategist Tom Rath. “She has had perfect pitch. Without compromising her ideological moorings, she has been practical, calm, sure-footed, and decisive. And, accordingly, no one is lining up to take her on next year.”
Republican consultant Matthew Bartlett says Ayotte has given Granite Staters a clear contrast to the chaos coming out of the nation’s capital.
“While Washington is full of caustic grandstanding politicians who caused a months-long shutdown of government, Kelly continues to be the Granite State workhorse. She’s doing the people’s work in Concord, and then you find her everywhere across the state, constantly staying in touch with people.
“I used to say Chris Sununu was New Hampshire’s Tom Brady,” Bartlett added. “Now it looks like Kelly Ayotte is Drake Maye.”
