With 2024’s chaos clear in its memory, the Democratic National Committee will begin the process of picking the 2028 early presidential primary states later this month, according to CBS News.
And the preliminary drafts of the guidelines could be problematic for New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation status.
“CBS News has learned that at a meeting later this month, the party’s influential Rules and Bylaws Committee will focus on the application process to be among the first handful of states to hold a Democratic presidential nominating contest,” Hunter Woodall reports.
According to the report, the states will be judged on the criteria of “rigorousness, efficiency, and fairness.” The latter two are somewhat innocuous, but the issue of rigorousness — “a comprehensive test of candidates with diverse groups of voters that are key to winning the general election” — could be used by other states to challenge New Hampshire’s FITN status.
Michigan and Nevada are already making the case that their more ethnically and economically diverse populations make them better states to take the first slot.
“Unfortunately, some of the states that have gone first do not reflect the diversity of the country,” said Michigan Democrat U.S. Rep. Debbie Dingell, who sits on the Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC). “They don’t have solid, organized labor groups that, quite frankly, people have thought of traditionally as Democratic-leaning, but are not always these days.”
Granite State leaders, including Gov. Kelly Ayotte, insist New Hampshire is going to go first — just as it has for more than 100 years and, more importantly, as state law requires.
“Democrats would be smart to return New Hampshire to its rightful place at the start of the presidential primary process,” Ayotte told NHJournal. “We are first in the nation because we do it right. Candidates have to earn every vote by talking to voters face-to-face — at town halls, VFWs, diners, and everywhere in between.”
Ayotte added that the Republican Party is all but certain to hold its primary first, anyway. Democrats in New Hampshire would have to both change state law and break the primary contest into two separate dates if forced out of the top spot.
Not gonna happen, most political professionals agree.
Woodall notes the early drafts of the DNC’s guidelines contain a warning for New Hampshire.
“RBC will apply severe penalties for state parties that hold early nominating contests without a waiver to do so, and for candidates who actively campaign for votes in such unauthorized contests.”
At this stage, however, most political observers don’t buy that, either.
In a recent Politico article, veteran reporter Jonathan Martin predicted the Granite State is very likely to go first — whether the DNC likes it or not. He sees a 2028 calendar with New Hampshire as number one, followed by South Carolina, Nevada, and a Midwestern state, most likely Michigan.
As for the RBC’s threats of “severe penalties,” Martin says 2024 proves that’s a bluff. The DNC took away the Granite State’s convention delegates after it held its unsanctioned primary. But it didn’t stick.
“With an eye toward party unity, and recognizing New Hampshire could be competitive in the general election, the DNC restored New Hampshire’s delegates,” Martin noted. “So the DNC is left with little leverage today. They already demonstrated once that their delegate threats are toothless.”
Actually, it’s worse than that for the DNC.
Pulling New Hampshire from its FITN slot was part of the chaotic 2024 primary process that led to President Joe Biden being forced off the ballot, Vice President Kamala Harris becoming the nominee without winning a single vote, and then becoming the first Democrat to lose the popular vote since John Kerry in 2004.
Chris Ager, a former GOP state party chair who’s been involved in FITN fights for years, believes the DNC has learned its lesson.
“Skipping the New Hampshire primary cost the Democrats dearly in 2024. I don’t think the DNC is dumb enough to do that again,” Ager told NHJournal.
All four of New Hampshire’s federal Democrats supported the Biden write-in scheme in 2024 that helped keep their party from dealing with Biden’s age issue until 107 days before the election. None of them responded to requests for comment about the DNC’s proposed guidelines.
New Hampshire Democratic Party Chair Ray Buckley, who told Granite Staters the 2024 FITN primary was safe just 24 hours before the DNC killed it, also declined to comment.
Meanwhile, longtime Granite State political operative Tom Rath told NHJournal he isn’t worried.
“I have no doubt whatsoever that the New Hampshire secretary of state will oversee a primary in 2028 that is before any other similar contest,” Rath said. “On that issue, the parties in New Hampshire will stand together.”
And while the progressive elements in the DNC’s leadership don’t want to admit it, New Hampshire is a smart state for their party to start the process, said University of New Hampshire political science professor Dante Scala.
“It’s a Democratic-leaning swing state with many college-educated, independent voters, where candidates can campaign easily.”
And the Biden backlash could benefit New Hampshire, he suggested.
“After the 2024 debacle, has Biden left such a bad taste in Democrats’ mouths that they’re intent on undoing his meddling with the nomination calendar?” Scala asked.
DNC chair Ken Martin has repeatedly said he wants the calendar set sooner rather than later — certainly by early 2026. And that means a DNC decision to kill the primary could be an issue in New Hampshire’s upcoming elections.
“Democrats should remember that next year we have an extremely popular Republican governor who will be seeking reelection, an open U.S. Senate seat, and an open U.S. House seat. Those, in the end, matter more than the order of primary voting,” Rath said.
“My money is on us.”
