From Arizona’s U.S. Sen. Ruben Gallego to The New York Times, Democrats and their allies agree the party has a “brand problem,” as Gallego told New Hampshire voters on Friday.
But does that matter in the Granite State?
Democrats spent last week bemoaning the Times’ data analysis showing Democratic voter registration plunging as GOP sign-ups are rising in the 30 states that have voter registration by party.
“All told, Democrats lost about 2.1 million registered voters between the 2020 and 2024 elections in the 30 states, along with Washington, D.C., that allow people to register with a political party. Republicans gained 2.4 million,” it reported.
That’s a 4.5 million swing toward the GOP.
“For the first time since 2018, more new voters nationwide chose to be Republicans than Democrats last year,” the Times reported.
Former Obama aide Dan Pfeiffer didn’t hold back when he talked about the news.
“I mean, it is at its worst point than at almost any point in our history,” Pfeiffer said on his Pod Save America podcast. “And I would probably even include after the 1984 election, when we lost 49 states.”
His fellow podcaster and Democratic flack Jon Favreau was even more blunt.
“2020 through 2024 — bad f—ing years for the Democratic Party.”
But what about here in New Hampshire?
Last week, veteran political operative Greg Moore took to social media to make an observation. “For those keeping score of these things, with the release of the most recent Secretary of State numbers, the GOP voter registration advantage in New Hampshire jumped to 49,334 from 48,821 last May.”
The latest registration numbers are:
- Democrats: 272,316
- Republicans: 321,650
- Unaffiliated: 378,549
- TOTAL: 972,515
For years, Granite State political professionals have largely ignored voter registration numbers because of the impact primaries — presidential primaries in particular — have on voter registration. Add the fact that tens of thousands of voters register on Election Day, and comparing voter registrations months before votes are cast is of little predictive value.
So why did Moore highlight the GOP’s voter registration success?
“Because when the party out of power is gaining in its voter registration numbers, that’s counter-historical, so it’s slightly meaningful,” Moore told NHJournal.
That’s the same trend at the national level. Typically, when one party takes control in Washington, D.C., the other party enjoys a surge of support simply for being in opposition. It’s the “W.C. Fields” effect at work.
(“I never vote for anyone. I only vote against.” — W.C. Fields)
Instead, the Times’ analysis found there are now roughly 160,000 fewer registered Democrats than on Election Day 2024 and 200,000 more Republicans.
As with the national numbers, the uptick in the state GOP’s registration numbers this year comes without a FITN primary or any other factor to overcome political gravity. Nobody is heading to the polls for a chance to vote in the September 2026 GOP primary for U.S. Senate.
Republican Michael Dennehy, another political pro, is less impressed by the New Hampshire numbers.
“Registration numbers haven’t mattered in years, or even decades,” Dennehy told NHJournal. “It is and always has been about who can motivate and get their voters out on Election Day.
But it does tell us that the GOP is still running strong. I think it is mostly due to Ayotte’s strength right now.”
Ayotte does appear strong at the moment — so strong that no Democratic candidate has yet to emerge, even as Democrats flood into the 1st Congressional District primary.
Democrats like state party chair Ray Buckley push back by pointing to the latest University of New Hampshire survey showing Ayotte barely above water with a 49 to 48 percent approval.
Moore mocked the UNH survey (it’s not a poll; UNH surveys a pre-selected panel of registered voters) as clearly flawed. Why?
Miscalculating Democrats.
In the UNH survey, 45 percent of the respondents identified as Democrats, while just 41 percent identified as Republicans. In the past, that might have been a match for the electorate, but with Trump getting 48 percent of the vote in November — and Lily Tang Williams getting 47 percent in the Democrats’ 2nd Congressional District stronghold — the UNH numbers appear to run contrary to the current pro-GOP trend.
Democrats still control the state’s entire federal delegation and are likely to win all three 2026 races. But they’re also likely to lose the State House races yet again.
The big-picture trend is that the GOP brand is still in bad shape in deep-blue New England, but the Democrats’ brand is falling here, too. Every New England state has had its Democratic registration advantage decline.
How bad is it?
“I don’t want to say, ‘The death cycle of the Democratic Party,’ but there seems to be no end to this,” Michael Pruser, director of data science for Decision Desk HQ, told the Times.
“There is no silver lining or cavalry coming across the hill. This is month after month, year after year.”
