California Gov. Gavin Newsom has made no secret of his interest in running for president in 2028. So when he stepped off the plane in an early primary state Tuesday, it made headlines.

Unfortunately for New Hampshire, that state is South Carolina.

Newsom is scheduled to make eight stops at churches and coffee shops across the Palmetto State during his two-day trip, a fact that caught the eye of veteran political reporter Mark Halperin.

“I continue to believe (Newsom) won’t run in the end. But man, two days in South Carolina?” Halperin commented on his popular 2Way program on Tuesday.

Newsom’s visit also says something about the primary calendar and which early state is in the strongest position, Halperin added.

“If you were a betting person and you were to pick one state that was likely to be in the first four, South Carolina would be the most likely now than any of the other early states.”

As for New Hampshire, Halperin predicted a “Potemkin primary,” a “diluted” event mandated by state law but of minor significance in the primary process.

Is he right?

It’s true that high-profile Democrats have been heading down to Dixie of late. Vice presidential nominee Gov. Tim Walz (D-Minn.) recently made a visit to South Carolina, as did Maryland’s Gov. Wes Moore, viewed as a rising star from the more moderate wing of his party.

And Pete Buttigieg, who currently tops the Emerson College poll of party favorites for the 2028 presidential nomination (at a modest 16 percent), has made one early-state top in 2025: Iowa.

Yes, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker spoke at the New Hampshire party’s McIntyre-Shaheen 100 Club fundraising dinner in April. And U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) had a Granite State visit cut short by the horrific shooting of two legislators in her home state. But those two candidates barely register in national polling, and they lack the ability to grab the political spotlight like Newsom or former Vice President Kamala Harris.

And that’s why New Hampshire needs to preserve the presidential primary, political professionals say, particularly after the near-death experience for the Democrats’ First in the Nation (FITN) primary in 2024.

Last year, the Democratic National Committee, at the behest of embattled President Joe Biden, stripped New Hampshire of its first-in-the-nation status and gave it to South Carolina. Biden and members of the DNC claimed at the time it was due to concerns about racial diversity — New Hampshire is “too White” — but reporting has since revealed the real reason was to hide Biden’s mental and physical infirmity.

Whatever the reason, the question is how much damage was done by allowing the DNC to cancel the primary without facing any backlash. If they can diss it once and have Granite State Democrats get on board, why not do it again?

A senior Democratic operative in Washington, D.C., told NHJournal on background that’s not the thinking at the moment.

“New Hampshire remains important to national Democrats for a few reasons. First, it’s one of the few places in New England where Republicans still have a vibrant presence and Democrats cannot afford to lose their footing in the Granite State.

“Second, the electorate of New Hampshire is the type of electorate that Democrats need to get better at appealing to. The party cannot afford to abandon states like New Hampshire.”

Put another way, the Granite State’s “White people problem” may emerge as a virtue.

A new Pew Voter Survey analysis of 2024 found that nationally, Trump won White voters 55 to 43 percent. White voters make up about 70 percent of the voting population, which means Democrats must wildly overperform among voters of color. However, Trump also won nearly half of Hispanic voters and 15 percent of Black voters, which led to his popular vote victory.

As the GOP coalition becomes more blue collar and working class, Democrats desperately need to add college-educated, affluent White voters to make up the difference. New Hampshire has one of the highest percentages of those voters in the country.

And there’s more good news for New Hampshire. As former state Sen. Donna Soucy pointed out in a recent Union-Leader op-ed, “New Hampshire will hold not one, but two influential seats on the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee, with Joanne Dowdell’s reappointment and the new appointment of (state party) chair Raymond Buckley.”

Two votes won’t make a major difference on the 30-member committee, but it can’t hurt.

Another possible boost to the FITN’s fortunes could be the campaigns for Congress next year. The two open seats created by U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas’ run to replace retiring U.S. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen give ambitious Democrats plenty of reasons to stop in New Hampshire and stump for local candidates. Campaign professionals in both parties expect to see plenty of national Democrats making appearances for Pappas and the party’s eventual NH-01 nominee — possibly Shaheen’s daughter Stefany.

Ironically, there’s likely to be less activity on the GOP side in 2026, even though it’s all but certain the Republican National Committee will endorse New Hampshire’s FITN status. Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, an extreme long-shot candidate, recently visited the state, and U.S. Sen. Rand Paul — another unlikely nominee — is scheduled to visit this fall. 

But none of the top-tier Republican candidates — Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, or Govs. Brian Kemp (Ga.) or Glenn Youngkin (Va.) have New Hampshire on their itineraries.

The reason: Trump.

“When a Republican says, ‘I’m going to New Hampshire,’ the White House hears, ‘I’m running for president,’” one D.C. GOP source said. “Trump doesn’t want people out campaigning, at least not yet.”

And it’s the fact that “New Hampshire” is synonymous with presidential campaigns that may be its biggest strength in both parties.

Halperin predicts that if the DNC doesn’t sanction New Hampshire, candidates will skip it and focus on other states. But if a presidential candidate knows that simply stepping off the plane in Manchester means 2028 headlines, will they really stay away?

U.S. Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) isn’t. He’s already been to New Hampshire and has plans to return. He’s the sort of smart, progressive candidate who could play well here, building momentum to break out in a potentially crowded field.

And at a time when trust in the Democratic Party has been damaged by the DNC’s attempted Biden cover up in 2024, former U.S. Rep. Dick Swett (D-N.H.) points out that New Hampshire could help rebuild that trust.

“I don’t think the political parties realize how much damage has been done to the public’s view of government,” Swett told NHJournal after an event featuring the New Hampshire Democracy Defense Project, which he co-chairs with former U.S. Sen. John E. Sununu (R-N.H.)

“I would encourage them to take special notice, and do everything in their power they can do to bring people back, not only to supporting their party, but supporting their country.”

Campaigning in New Hampshire, with its strong tradition of transparency and retail campaigning, could help rebuild that support.

“The fact of the matter is you still can’t meet a future president with the intimacy that New Hampshire provides anywhere else in the country,” Swett said. “That is a positive that should never be overlooked.