President-elect Donald Trump has promised a mass deportation effort that will remove all undocumented immigrants from the country.
However, is he planning on dramatically increasing legal immigration simultaneously?
Some pundits expressed surprise when Trump told “Meet the Press” that he was open to an immigration deal with Democrats on “The Dreamers” — undocumented immigrants brought to the United States when they were young. Some border security advocates say Trump’s position has been more nuanced than critics acknowledge.
On Nov. 6, the day after the election, real estate investor Grant Cardone said in an X Spaces audio conversation that he’d recently talked to Trump and encouraged him to support increasing legal immigration to 5 million people yearly — a fivefold increase from the 1 million people annually granted permanent residency in the United States.
Such an increase would require an act of Congress, and it doesn’t seem likely this could get enough support to pass. Perhaps it could.
On Nov. 21, Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, agreed with podcaster Daniel Horowitz that a “grand bargain” was developing in Congress on immigration — an agreement to increase significantly legal immigration in exchange for undocumented immigrants being deported.
A record 3.3 million immigrants — legal and undocumented — entered the United States in 2023. Increasing this by more than 1.5 million to hit 5 million would be “an absolute betrayal of the voters who decided this election,” said Jeremy Beck of Numbers USA, which advocates for limited immigration and an immigration policy that prioritizes the interests of Americans.
Legal immigration has not gotten as much attention as illegal immigration. Trump has often spoken of wanting to encourage legal immigration.
In a podcast with venture capitalist David Sacks in June, Trump said he’d give green cards and permanent residency to any foreign student graduating from an American college or university. He added that he’d include junior colleges, where students earn a two-year degree.
In August, in a news conference at his New Jersey golf club, Trump said, “We’re going to let a lot of people come, because we need more people, especially with AI coming and all the different things.”
However, the country already has a lot of people.
While many Americans look back on the Ellis Island era as the high point for immigration to the United States, the nation has a higher percentage of foreign-born residents today than at any time in history — 51.6 million, making up 15.6 percent of the population.
This percentage has tripled since 1970, when 4.7 percent of the population was foreign-born. It’s higher than the 14.8 percent foreign-born population number in 1890 during the surge of European immigration to the United States.
Add the more than 7 million undocumented migrants on President Biden’s watch, along with 1.5 million “got-aways” who evaded encounters with border enforcement, and that may explain why attitudes about immigration overall have soured.
In a July 2024 poll, 55 percent of Americans told Gallup they want immigration to the United States to decrease, the first time since 2005 that a majority have said they want less immigration — legal or not.
The effects of soaring immigration are being felt far from the southern border. For example, Indiana’s state education department has asked lawmakers to double its two-year budget for English Language Learners (to educate K-12 students who aren’t fluent in English) to $100 million.
The effect of so many new immigrants is felt in the nation’s job market.
As Steven A. Camarota at the Center for Immigration Studies reports, most of the employment growth during the Biden administration has gone to immigrants.
“The government’s household survey shows that there were only 971,000 more U.S.-born Americans employed in May 2024 compared to May 2019, prior to the pandemic, while the number of employed immigrants increased by 3.2 million,” Camarota writes.
But some of Trump’s top advisers still support an increase in legal immigration — notably, Elon Musk, who wrote on X in March: “Yeah, US immigration is completely backwards: trivial to enter illegally and nightmarishly difficult to enter legally! I strongly support increasing and expediting legal immigration.”
Trump has indicated that he’s going to get tough on illegal immigration, appointing aggressive enforcement advocate Tom Homan to serve as his Border Czar and promising “mass deportations.”
Republicans are watching to see what the president does on legal immigration. Populists who support his “America First” politics want to see fewer immigrants, hoping to see an increase in wages for people currently in the labor force.
If Trump repeats his first-term performance, they may get their wish.
The denial rate for H-1B visa requests rose from 6 percent in 2015 to more than 20 percent in 2019 on Trump’s watch. While those numbers were reversed due to a legal settlement in 2020, the Trump administration still used regulations to raise the costs of H-1B requests.
With Musk and other Silicon Valley tech players backing Trump this cycle, he may be more responsive to their pressure to allow more high-skill immigrants into the country.
“These tech lobbyists think they’re going to be feeding at the trough, just making all kinds of demands because Elon is going to support them,” Dan Stein, president of the Federation for American Immigration Reform, told Politico. He warned that Trump “has to walk a very fine line so that people don’t feel betrayed.”
