Another round of ads paid for by a national GOP organization targeting two down-ballot Democratic state senators has the New Hampshire Republican Party thinking big about adding to its majority in Concord.
“New Hampshire is definitely in play for all Republicans,” NHGOP Chairman Chris Ager told NHJournal, hours after the Republican State Leadership Committee unveiled two new ads hitting incumbent Sens. Donna Soucy (D-Manchester) and Shannon Chandley (D-Amherst). “We have a very competitive state. Momentum is on the side of Republicans’ competent and pragmatic governance.”
Chandley is facing state Rep. Tim McGough (R-Merrimack), while Senate Minority Leader Soucy is facing former state Rep. Victoria Sullivan.
Flipping the New Hampshire legislature is a top priority of Democratic efforts at the state level across the country. Republicans have the Granite State on a list of battlegrounds they hope to defend, along with Arizona and Wisconsin.
According to a memo from RSLC Chair Dee Duncan released earlier this month, the organization has boosted its spending to $44 million, “but we will still be outpaced by the $175 million the [Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee], the States Project, and Forward Majority PAC have pledged to spend alone.”
Previous Chandley and Soucy ads from the RSLC focused on their support for sanctuary city policies and opposition to increased immigration enforcement.
The new ads focus on their opposition to New Hampshire’s Education Freedom Accounts, suggesting Soucy and Chandley were motivated in part by political donations.
The 15-second spots label them “textbook politicians,” hammering them for “pocketing liberal teachers union cash” and “then voting against expanding education freedom, locking our kids in failing schools” while “cashing in, and leaving us behind.”
“Donna Soucy attended a private Catholic school but has repeatedly voted to deny middle-class and low-income families the same opportunities,” said Sullivan. “She has voted against protecting New Hampshire girls in their sports, spaces and opportunities. She no longer holds New Hampshire values and has stopped representing her constituents.”
The RSLC announced this latest ad campaign just days after a new NHJournal/Praecones Analytica poll showed an extremely tight race for New Hampshire’s Electoral College votes, and Granite Staters nearly evenly split on which party they prefer to control state government.
Recent polling and the RSLC’s ad buys are potential signs indicating Republicans are confident they can pick up New Hampshire, which has gone Democratic seven of the previous eight presidential elections.
Soucy and Chandley did not respond to requests for comment.
The RSLC’s ad campaign is part of the organization’s “The Left’s Most Wanted” initiative targeting what it’s determined are vulnerable Democratic state lawmakers in swing states.
McGough, a first responder, has been appreciative of the RSLC’s efforts to call attention to Chandley’s voting record.
“Shannon campaigns as a moderate, but votes like an out-of-touch, elite limousine liberal,” McGough told NHJournal. “Shannon votes in lockstep with the Democrat radical special interest groups to create new taxes, attack educational opportunities for low-income students, increase costs for small businesses, and make our state less affordable for working families.”
Republicans currently hold a 14-10 majority in the New Hampshire Senate. Four incumbents — two from each party — are not seeking reelection, including outgoing Senate President Jeb Bradley (R-Wolfeboro).
Chandley’s district covers four towns in central Hillsborough County and has see-sawed between Democrats and Republicans in recent years.
After being consistently represented by Republicans, Chandley broke through for Democrats in 2018 when she upset incumbent state Sen. Gary Daniels (R-Milford) in a race decided by just under five points, or 1,156 votes. Chandley, however, lost in her rematch with Daniels two years later by a razor-thin margin of 0.4 points, or just 159 votes.
In 2022, she reclaimed the seat in another close race, winning by 2.6 points, or 729 votes.
Sullivan, meanwhile, is challenging the incumbent Soucy in a district that includes a large swatch of South Manchester and all of neighboring Litchfield. In 2022, Soucy defeated Republican challenger George Lambert by 4.8 points, or 905 votes. She fended off another Lambert challenge in 2020, winning by 10.8 points, or 2,750 votes.
Soucy’s 2024 opponent, Republican Victoria Sullivan, ran uncontested in the state’s Sept. 10 primary and managed to secure 3,777 votes — approximately 543 more votes than Soucy, who likewise ran unopposed in her primary.
One issue that could impact these races is the debate over allowing biological males to play on girls sports teams in middle and high school. Both Chandley and Soucy voted against the “Fairness in Women’s Sports Act” earlier this year. Polls show Granite States support girls-only sports by a three-to-one margin.
For the RSLC, today’s announcement marks its third and final round of media ad buys “defending majorities in the battleground states of Arizona, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin” by “going on offense against state Democrats in key bellwether districts.”
One notable development during the final round was the RSLC’s decision to add Minnesota at the last minute to its list of targeted states.
