Amid signs that former President Donald Trump is slowly gaining momentum in the race for the White House, a new New Hampshire Journal/Praecones Analytica poll released Sunday night finds he’s leading Vice President Kamala Harris in the Granite State.
Trump’s slim 50.2 to 49.8 percent lead is insignificant, well within the margin of error.
But the fact that Trump, who’s lost the Granite State twice, is leading in a state Democrats carried in seven of the last eight presidential races, could be very significant. It’s one of a series of indicators that the Trump campaign is expanding the field of potential pick-up states less than two weeks before Election Day.
The survey of 622 registered voters was conducted by the Praecones Analytica polling firm between Oct. 24-26.
“There’s a reason Kamala Harris has been spending money in New Hampshire. She’s on defense and knows President Trump is on the path to victory,” said Trump national campaign spokesperson – and Atkinson, N.H., native – Karoline Leavitt.
“To my fellow Granite Staters who want to keep our beautiful state safe, business-friendly, and free — get out and vote for President Trump. Kamala Harris is a radical liberal who would destroy New Hampshire and America forever.”
In the race for governor, Ayotte continues to hold a modest but steady lead. In the NHJournal poll, she’s leading Democrat Joyce Craig 52 to 48 percent.
In the Emerson College poll released last week, Trump trailed Harris in New Hampshire by three (50 to 47 percent) and Ayotte led Craig by the same margin (46 to 43 percent). Like the Journal poll, those numbers put both races within the margin of error.
Trump’s neck-and-neck polling with Harris in New Hampshire adds fuel to the narrative that his campaign is gaining momentum going into the last week of the campaign, momentum his team believes is expanding the map. The former president is scheduled to appear in both New Mexico and Virginia in the final days of the campaign.
“The interesting thing that is going unreported right now is the shift in the dynamic,” former Trump spokesman Sean Spicer said on Mark Halperin’s 2Way news program last week. “We have seen a shift, and now Minnesota, New Hampshire, Virginia, New Mexico, and potentially Nebraska [Second Congressional District] are all back in play in a way we wouldn’t have been talking about four weeks ago.”
“Look at the data,” Spicer added. “Look at what is happening in each of these states. They are all trending in Trump’s direction.”
On the generic ballot questions, Granite Staters were split. While they preferred Republicans control Congress 52 to 48 percent), a slim majority (50.6 to 49.4 percent) would prefer to see Democrats control the state legislature in Concord.
Respondents were also asked about some of the fundamental issues in the governor’s race. For example, Ayotte often says she intends to continue “the Sununu way” if elected governor, and she’s been endorsed by popular GOP Gov. Chris Sununu. However, when asked if they would prefer to “stay on the Sununu course” or wanted “New Hampshire to make a change,” 55 percent chose change, as opposed to 45 percent who said “stay the course.”
So, how is Ayotte holding a four-point lead over Craig? Taxes vs. abortion.
Craig and the Democratic Party have pounded Ayotte nonstop on the abortion issue, claiming (falsely) that she supports a ban on abortion in New Hampshire. Asked how concerned they are that Ayotte would ban abortion in the Granite State, just 27 percent were “very concerned,” while 31 percent were not concerned at all.
Ayotte has repeatedly said throughout the campaign she supports the state’s current abortion law and would veto any bill to restrict abortion further. She’s made Craig’s record on taxes the top issue; in particular, Craig’s proposal to bring back the income tax on interest and deductions, a tax Sununu and the GOP-controlled legislature have eliminated.
Asked how concerned they are that Craig would raise taxes, 32 percent were very concerned, while just 19 percent were not concerned at all.
Greg Moore, regional director of Americans For Prosperity, says the Craig campaign is struggling the move Ayotte’s numbers because the abortion issue is already baked in.
“They’ve already sold that horse,” Moore said. “They sold it in 2022. They’ve gotten out of it what they can get.”
Another issue that has emerged both in New Hampshire and at the national level is the debate over whether biological males who identify as female should be allowed to participate in girls sports. The Trump campaign has been spending heavily on an ad featuring Harris in her own words expressing support for taxpayer-funded sex change operations for incarcerated illegal aliens.
In New Hampshire, a new law requiring athletes to play on the team that matches their sex at birth is being challenged in federal court. Meanwhile, two parents were slapped with no trespass orders by the Bow school district after wearing pink armbands with “XX” written on them to express their support for girls-only sports.
Every Democrat in the New Hampshire House and Senate opposed the new law protecting girls sports, and Craig is an opponent as well. Asked if they would be more or less likely to support a legislator who voted to allow biological males to compete in girls sports, 15 percent said “more likely,” while 54 percent said “less likely.” Another 31 percent said it would make no difference.
“These New Hampshire poll numbers are mirroring the national trend,” said Sununu. “Harris reinforced her supporters’ worst fears when she confirmed she wouldn’t provide any change from the current administration. Trump now controls the narrative as the only alternative to America’s current situation.
“And that’s a powerful message for voters in the final week of the campaign.”
ABOUT THE POLLSTER:
Praecones Analytica has been rated by 538 and Nate Silver for over six years, and currently has a Silver Bulletin pollster rating of B/C and a predictive plus/minus rating of +0.42 which is in the top third of rated firms. Their mean-reverted bias, as measured by the Silver Bulletin, is small, at R +0.2, substantially smaller than many nationally-prominent pollsters.
