Republican Kelly Ayotte continues to hold a narrow three-point lead and Vice President Kamala Harris is handily keeping Donald Trump at bay. That’s the finding of a new Saint Anselm College Survey Center poll released Thursday, closely mirroring its last survey in early September.
“The political environment in New Hampshire has remained relatively stable since September with very little change in the state’s top races,” said New Hampshire Institute of Politics Executive Director Neil Levesque. “However, former Sen. Kelly Ayotte has improved her standing somewhat among voters, and is inching closer toward a majority in the race for governor.”
In the new survey, Ayotte leads Democrat Joyce Craig 47 to 44 percent, the same margin as a month ago (46 to 43 percent).
Harris is ahead of Trump by seven points, 51 to 44 percent. That’s down just one point from her early September 51 to 43 percent margin.
The story’s largely the same in the two congressional races, though U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas’ lead over Republican Russell Prescott has narrowed slightly from a 50 to 38 percent race to 50-41 percent.
In the Second Congressional District, Democrat Maggie Goodlander continues to hold a double-digit lead over Lily Tang Williams, 50 to 38 percent.
Also unchanged from September: Voters know relatively little about the two Republicans running for Congress. A solid 44 percent of respondents had no opinion of Williams and 55 percent said the same of Prescott.
That hasn’t stopped Pappas from hitting Prescott with negative TV ads and mailers falsely suggesting the Republican supports Project 2025.
Given the state of the federal races and Harris’ solid lead in the Granite State — the Trump campaign is AWOL here — most of the political attention is on the governor’s race. Republicans like what they’re seeing in the polls, they tell NHJournal, as Ayotte continues to strongly outperform the top of the ticket.
Former First District Congressman Frank Guinta said the new poll “demonstrates New Hampshire voters are capable of splitting the ticket.”
“Clearly, New Hampshire is waking up to what we in Manchester have known all along. Joyce Craig failed us. On homelessness, taxes, and crime, hers is a record that should disqualify her from any office, let alone the governorship,” Guinta said.
Not surprisingly, the Ayotte campaign is pleased with the numbers.
“Voters are rejecting Joyce Craig and her record of higher taxes. Joyce’s plan to raise taxes by $160 million will be stopped by Granite Staters on November 5,” said campaign spokesperson John Corbett, referencing Craig’s support for bringing back the state income tax on interest and dividends.
The Craig campaign, which has strictly limited the candidate’s access to the press, declined to comment.
Greg Moore, regional director for Americans For Prosperity, says voters shouldn’t read too much into the polls, other than to takeaway that the race for governor is still wide open.
“What the polls show is that either one of these candidates can win the governor’s race. They’ve just got to go out, do the work, and win it.”
If there is any winner in this new poll, it’s the GOP in general. As Levesque notes, “Republicans overall have gained slightly on the generic ballot. The Democratic lead has been shaved by 2 points and now stands at 49-46 percent.”
In addition, GOP ads targeting Craig have begun to have an effect. Her approval rating has fallen in the past month from a net positive to a net -4 (40 percent favorable, 44 percent unfavorable.)
Still, at least one Republican insider told NHJournal on background they remain concerned about Ayotte’s ability to overcome partisan gravity if Trump’s number declines.
“If Harris increases her lead much more, it will be difficult for Kelly to win.”
