In the race for New Hampshire governor, who would you rather be right now: Democrat Joyce Craig or Republican Kelly Ayotte?
Based on the polls from St. Anselm College and the University of New Hampshire released last week — and Donald Trump’s weak numbers at the national level — you might be tempted to say former Manchester Mayor Craig.
You’d be wrong.
The challenges facing Ayotte are undeniable. She’s got the unpopular Trump at the top of the GOP ticket, no turnout help from the two congressional races, and Democrats leading in the “generic ballot” question by about five points.
She came out of her primary with a 30-point win while Craig narrowly edged Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington by 48 to 42 percent, and yet she’s in a neck and neck race: Up by three in the St. A’s poll and down by one in UNH.
Meanwhile, both polls show Ayotte’s negatives are significantly higher than Craig’s. Among all voters, Craig has a favorable/unfavorable of 37/36 percent (+1), while Ayotte is 45/50 percent (-5) in the St. A’s poll. UNH has Craig’s favorable at + 3 and Ayotte’s at -18.
Not great, Bob.
It’s a similar trend among undeclared voters, too.
But check out the numbers among their own party. Craig’s at 74 percent favorable and 8 percent unfavorable among Democrats, while Ayotte is at 82 percent favorable and 15 percent unfavorable among Republicans. Why are both Ayotte’s numbers so much higher?
Because 18 percent of Democrats tell St. A’s they have no opinion of their own party’s nominee. For Ayotte among Republicans, it’s just three percent.
Among all voters, just four percent said they either had no opinion or never heard of Ayotte, while a whopping 26 percent said the same about Craig.
Suddenly, all that good news for Craig isn’t looking so good, at least not in the eyes of political professionals.
For example, Ayotte’s 15 percent unfavorable among Republicans likely leftover from her combative primary with Chuck Morse or lingering resentment over her 2016 skirmish with Trump. But as Election Day moves closer, those partisan Republicans are likely to become more and more motivated to do what partisan Republicans do — support their party nominee.
Ayotte has room to grow inside her own party.
One way to help get those GOP voters motivated is by attacking the Democrats. Party loyalists love that. Which is precisely what Ayotte needs to do to address the second problem — Craig’s relatively high approval rating.
In the current political climate filled with attack ads and partisan anger, getting through a campaign season with an approval rating that’s above water is extremely unlikely. If Craig is really in positive territory, it just means Ayotte and the Republican Governors Association haven’t targeted her yet. Ayotte has taken $10 million in attack ads, and it shows.
Now it’s Craig’s turn, and because so many Granite State voters know so relatively little about her, the GOP has the opportunity to define her in ways that will make it harder for Craig to win.
In other words, Ayotte is on the verge of a “virtuous cycle” campaign: The more she attacks Craig, the more her grumpy GOP base will get over its hard feelings and embrace their nominee. And given Craig’s record as mayor and public stances on immigration, taxes, etc. there will be plenty for the GOP to hit her on.
Not that Democrats are struggling to find ways to attack Ayotte. The non-stop barrage of abortion ads are taking their toll, no doubt. But how much more can the abortion issue move this race? After $10 million, is there a voter left who is going to reject Ayotte on the abortion issue who hasn’t done so already?
Try it this way: Ayotte’s taken a non-stop pounding for months, her negatives are twice as high as Craig’s, she’s running in a news cycle that’s dominated by Trump — and she’s tied.
Ayotte can grow her vote by getting her GOP base back on board and doubling Craig’s low negatives with attack ads.
What can Craig do to grow the vote she’s got?
The wild card, as it has been every day in American politics since 2015, is Trump. It’s possible he could do something to blow up his candidacy and leave the GOP in such a hole that no New Hampshire Republican can climb out of it. But politicians in both parties have been waiting for that moment for nearly a decade, and it hasn’t happened.
In fact, Trump is polling higher now than he has at any point in his political career.
At the same time, some Granite State Republicans seem to believe Trump is irrelevant when it comes to the governor’s race. They point to 2020, and Gov. Chris Sununu’s massive outperformance over Trump.
But this isn’t 2020, and Ayotte isn’t a popular, incumbent Republican. This is more like 2016, when a fairly well-known Republican named Sununu was running for governor for the first time. That year, Trump got 46.5 percent of the vote, and Sununu got 49 percent — just 2.5 percent more.
The idea that Ayotte is going to win 10 percent more of the vote than Trump at the top of the ticket is highly unlikely.
So yes, all things considered, you’d rather be Ayotte than Craig right now.
But not by much.
