For Republican Kelly Ayotte, the primary election cycle could not have gone better. The former U.S. senator won a massive 30-point win over her GOP opponent, former state Senate President Chuck Morse.
At the same time, former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig couldn’t break 50 percent in her 48-42 percent victory over Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington.
But despite the big win, Ayotte won’t be getting a honeymoon. The new St. Anselm College Survey Center poll released Monday puts her in a dead heat with Craig in the governor’s race. Ayotte’s 46-43 percent lead over Craig is within the margin of error, and is yet another reminder of the uphill climb facing Republicans in the Democrat-leaning Granite State.
“The race to succeed retiring Gov. Chris Sununu starts with a tight margin, and is likely to remain very competitive and closely watched down the stretch,” said New Hampshire Institute of Politics Executive Director Neil Levesque.
At first glance, Ayotte and Craig appear evenly matched. The St. A’s survey finds Ayotte slightly underwater with Granite State voters as 45 percent view her favorably and 50 percent view her unfavorably. Craig does marginally better at 37 percent favorable, 36 percent unfavorable.
Ayotte has the support of 88 percent of Republicans, while Craig is backed by 87 percent of her fellow Democrats. Ayotte enjoys a narrow 44-41 percent edge among undeclared voters.
Asked about the numbers, Ayotte spokesman John Corbett said, “Kelly Ayotte is winning this race because her message of keeping New Hampshire on the Sununu path is resonating with voters across the state. Voters will continue to reject Joyce Craig as they hear more about her record of higher taxes, out-of-control homelessness, and violent crime.”
Craig’s campaign manager Craig Brown released a statement in response to the poll.
“Joyce Craig has spent the last year traveling across the state and meeting with voters in every corner of New Hampshire to share her vision to improve Granite Staters’ lives and move our state forward. It is clear her vision is resonating with voters,” Brown said. “At the same time, Granite Staters are remembering they cannot trust Kelly Ayotte, who has spent her career stripping women of their reproductive rights and cashing in on corporate boards – not working for Granite Staters.
The reference to corporate boards is part of a Craig attack on Ayotte over serving on the boards of companies including Caterpillar and BAE Systems. The latter is a commercial, defense, and space electronics giant with more than 6,000 employees in New Hampshire, many in Craig’s own city of Manchester.
While Craig is attacking Ayotte for serving on BAE’s board, she also bragged about the company adding jobs in Manchester during her time as mayor.
“This is a great company to have in Manchester, along with a number of jobs, and we are thrilled they are staying in the state and specifically in Manchester,” then-Mayor Craig said.
But Craig is running a TV ad specifically attacking Craig for serving on the BAE board, an ad Ayotte has called on her to take off the air.
The airwaves are already full of attack ads from both sides, a sign neither is going to lose the race due to a lack of cash.
However, the St. A’s poll reveals some problems for Ayotte to overcome.
One is the heightened partisanship of the electorate in a state that’s long trended blue. On the generic ballot question, 49 percent of voters choose a generic Democrat versus 44 percent that choose a Republican.
Trump’s presence at the top of the ticket isn’t likely to help. The same poll found Trump trailing Vice President Kamala Harris by eight points, 51-43 percent. That’s about the margin of Biden’s victory over Trump in 2020. If Trump can’t close the gap like he did in 2016 — when Trump lost by fewer than 3,000 votes and first-time gubernatorial candidate Chris Sununu edged out Colin Van Ostern by two points — Ayotte may struggle to close the gap.
Another problem from the poll: Ayotte’s not going to get any help from the other top-tier races. Not only are Russell Prescott and Lily Tang Williams losing by double digits to their Democratic opponents in the First and Second Congressional Districts (respectively), but they both have low name ID. Just half of respondents said they had an opinion about Tang Williams, while 65 percent said they had no opinion of Prescott or had never heard of him.
Rather than helping turn out GOP-leaning voters, those two congressional candidates are going to have to build basic name ID. Meaning Ayotte can’t count on much voter turnout from either campaign.
Veteran GOP strategist Pat Griffin says he sees a path to victory for Ayotte.
“This race will come down to each candidate’s ability to make a case for change verses more of the same. In this case, ‘the same’ is pretty good in the Sununu Era, and Kelly Ayotte represents a continuation of the successful policies of a popular governor,” Griffin said.
“Meanwhile, Joyce Craig has to defend the utterly indefensible, given her failed record as Manchester’s chief executive and her intent to make New Hampshire ‘Massachusetts North.’ Granite State voters will have to decide if they are prepared to risk our success to become an extension of The Commonwealth.
“Independent voters will decide this race, and they don’t have enough strength in their fingers to hold their collective noses and vote for the disaster that Joyce Craig would be for New Hampshire’s future,” Griffin said.
