Poll after poll shows Vice President Kamala Harris locked in a margin-of-error wrestling match with former President Donald Trump over the seven swing states that will pick the next president.
And none of those states are New Hampshire.
Which is why political observers in New Hampshire and nationwide are scratching their heads over Harris’s decision to take one of the 63 campaign days she has left and spend it in Portsmouth this Wednesday. Veteran campaign insiders from both sides of the aisle told NHJournal they didn’t understand the decision and could only offer speculation. Speculation, they conceded, that didn’t entirely make sense.
The media advisory from the campaign simply says the vice president “will travel to the Greater Portsmouth area for a campaign event.”
The post from Marisa Nahem, who handles communications for the Harris campaign in New Hampshire, reads: “Kamala Harris is coming to NH & she’ll be greeted by amazing energy!”
What veteran political reporter Mark Halperin reads into all this is that something is up for Harris in New Hampshire.
“Kamala Harris to New Hampshire is very interesting,” Halperin posted on Twitter. “If the reason is not because Democratic internal [polls] show the race close, I’m eager to hear the alternate explanation. Endorsing a House candidate in a primary? Raising money from a Seacoast billionaire?”
So, is Harris coming to shore up her support in the Granite State? “Maybe it’s for insurance,” one Democrat told NHJournal on background.
But public polls show New Hampshire is, as it has been in seven of the previous eight presidential elections, a safe Democratic state. The Cook Political Report shifted the state from “leans Democrat” to “likely Democrat” after the party pushed out President Joe Biden and replaced him with Harris.
Recent polling by both St. Anselm and the University of New Hampshire gives Harris an eight-point lead over Trump. And two additional sources confirmed to NHJournal that their private polling has also found a solid Harris lead.
And then there’s an email sent by Massachusetts Trump staffer — or rather, former staffer — Tom Mountain, declaring “the campaign has determined that New Hampshire is no longer a battleground state.”
According to reporting by The Boston Globe, Mountain said was “sure to lose by an even higher margin” in New Hampshire than in 2016 and 2020, citing “campaign data/research.”
“We’re off the map,” one New Hampshire GOP source familiar with the state of the Trump campaign told NHJournal.
So, why is Harris coming here?
Some New Hampshire political operatives speculate the visit may be to repair relationships from the First in the Nation presidential primary fiasco, when Biden directed the Democratic National Committee to strip the Granite State of its place on the primary calendar. They note potential 2028 candidates like Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D-Ill.) and Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) made Labor Day weekend appearances in New Hampshire.
“It’s September. You don’t burn a candidate’s time like that in an uncompetitive state unless someone is writing her a $5 million check,” a national political pro told NHJournal. “The First in the Nation primary can wait until January.”
Fundraising appears to be the most likely answer. Several campaign professionals in both parties said it’s very possible Harris is coming to the Boston area for a big-dollar event and a quick trip to Portsmouth will get media coverage in Maine and New Hampshire. Not exactly Michigan, Nevada, or North Carolina, but not entirely wasted, either.
“You can make bank in Massachusetts and dip your toe in New Hampshire-Maine in less than 8 hours combined,” one Massachusetts GOP source noted.
Interestingly, Harris is coming just days before the primary that will determine the Democratic ticket in November. If she delayed her trip a week, she’d be able to appear with the nominees for governor and the Second Congressional District. Does that mean an endorsement in one of those races might be on the agenda this Wednesday?
“There is no way,” one longtime New Hampshire Democratic operative told NHJournal.
Meanwhile, the Trump campaign insists that New Hampshire is on the board and the Harris team knows it.
“President Trump’s campaign maintains an on-the-ground presence in New Hampshire, including staff and offices, while Kamala Harris is parachuting in because she knows that the Granite State is in play,” campaign senior advisor Brian Hughes told the Boston Globe.
