With just over six weeks to go until the GOP gubernatorial primary, Chuck Morse released an ad targeting frontrunner Kelly Ayotte over the two issues campaign professionals say are her most vulnerable with primary voters: immigration and Donald Trump.
The question being asked in political circles, however, is whether any primary voters will actually see it.
The ad, entitled “Trust,” says former U.S. Sen. Ayotte “voted with President Obama to give amnesty to 11 million illegals, and turned her back on both Donald Trump and us. The stakes are too high to trust Kelly Ayotte.”
According to Morse campaign manager Maya Harvey, “The ad is part of a six-figure campaign that will reach targeted primary voters where they get their news – online, streaming, and through connect television.”
The Ayotte campaign dismissed it as meaningless (“a Facebook ad”) because unlike it — and the campaigns of Democratic gubernatorial candidates Joyce Craig and Cinde Warmington — Morse isn’t on broadcast TV.
“Phony Chuck can’t get anyone to take him seriously and this ‘straight to DVD’ video isn’t going to help his case,” said Ayotte campaign spokesman John Corbett.
For many political insiders, “Are you up on TV?” is another way of asking, “Are you running a serious, well-funded campaign?”
Nonsense, says the Morse campaign. It’s a new media world and the former state Senate president is working smarter, not harder.
“Broadcast television is fine for campaigns who don’t know who they are targeting. We are focused on the voters who overwhelming joined Chuck in supporting Donald Trump in the presidential primary,” Harvey said.
On the broad issue of how Granite State voters are getting their information, says Americans For Prosperity Regional Director Greg Moore, the Morse campaign has a point.
“The way people are consuming video has changed dramatically over the last few years. They’re getting away from focusing on broadcast media and instead focusing on screens,” said Moore.
“It’s frequently called ‘connected television’ or ‘over the top television’ and you’re putting your message on screens that are exactly the right people whom you want to target. Which means you can buy a heck of a lot more efficiently than people who are just buying broadcast television.”
That is not the same as social media ad posts or streaming ads on Google. These are ads on screens where people are watching TV content.
According to Nielsen’s June 2024 report, streaming services accounted for 40 percent of total TV content viewing in the United States, with cable at 27 percent and broadcast at just 21 percent.
In fact, Moore said, streaming ads on TV content has made it possible for more candidates to compete in New Hampshire campaigns, overcoming the previous barrier of expensive Boston market TV buys.
Instead of big TV buys, campaigns can use good data.
“With good data, you can get a one-to-one match — the the right people with the right message at the right time, which is the Holy Trinity of marketing and always has been,” Moore said.
Still, counters the Ayotte campaign, the ads have to actually be seen. And while its ad is appearing on WMUR, Boston broadcast, cable, streaming and digital platforms, it’s not clear Morse’s ad is running anywhere but social media.
Asked about the details of its media buy and claims by the Ayotte campaign that it’s not legit, Morse senior advisor David Carney said, “We feel no need to justify our strategy or explain to others why they are wrong.
“When you’re running in a competitive primary having voted with Obama over 260 times, and been ranked the third least supportive on conservative voting in the Senate, supported amnesty for millions of illegal immigrants, and voted against school choice for low-income citizens — then you need a ton of money,” Carney said of the Ayotte campaign. “Especially when one refuses to engage with primary voters and local GOP committee joint forums. With a record like hers, it’s no wonder she hides in her basement and hopes July TV will move the needle.”
The Ayotte campaign pushed right back.
“After chairing Jeb Bush’s campaign against Donald Trump in 2016, Phony Chuck partnered with the ACLU to let criminals walk free and joined Democrats to kill a ban on sanctuary cities. Phony Chuck isn’t keeping anybody safe, and about the only thing that’s true about his video is if you gave it two slices of bread, you’d at least have a sandwich.
“When Phony Chuck’s political career started in 1998, ‘Titanic’ was leading the box offices. Like the Titanic, Chuck’s pathetic campaign is sinking.”
The political attacks aside, the fundamental strategy remains. Morse was an outspoken Trump supporter during the First in the Nation presidential primary while Ayotte remained on the sidelines. And Ayotte’s record as a senator on the immigration issue is out of favor with GOP primary voters today, inspiring Morse to label her “Amnesty Ayotte.”
At the same time, the limited public polling indicates Ayotte is the frontrunner, and she’s raised more money for her campaign than any candidate for governor in either party. As for the Trump issue, Ayotte has repeatedly expressed her support for the former president since he became the Republican nominee, and several well-known Trump supporters, like Bruce Breton of Windham, are boosting her campaign.
One GOP insider who spoke on background said the view inside Republican circles is that Morse has a message that could work, but doesn’t appear to have the resources to reach voters with it.
“Kelly goes up on WMUR, and two days later Morse is on, what, Hulu?” the Republican said. “That says something about where the race is right there.”
