In the first public polls of Granite State voters since President Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race, presumptive Democrat nominee Vice President Kamala Harris has a six-point lead over former President Donald Trump.
In the new Granite State Poll (a States of Opinion Project, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center), Harris has a 49 to 43 percent lead over Trump.
And in a Saint Anselm College Survey Center (SASC) poll also released Thursday, Harris has a 50-44 percent margin over Trump.
New Hampshire Institute of Politics Executive Director Neil Levesque summarized the results, saying, “With President Joe Biden bowing out of the race and endorsing his Vice President Kamala Harris, the presidential campaign has been reset as Harris has become the new favorite to win New Hampshire. Free of Biden’s baggage, Harris consolidates her party, enough to give her a 6-point edge.”
Harris’ six-point lead is larger than Biden’s 44-41 percent lead in the May UNH Survey Center poll, taken before the outgoing president’s disastrous debate performance. The difference, says UNH Survey Center Director Andrew Smith, is her strength among Granite State Democrats.
“Biden has had the lowest job approval ratings of any president up for reelection since polls have been taken,” Smith said. “He remained grudgingly supported by Democrats in New Hampshire, but never had the support that former President Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton had.
Levesque agrees.
“Harris has gained the partisan intensity that eluded Biden, as 94 percent of Democratic voters are supporting Harris, compared to only 82 percent that were supporting Biden in June. Liberal voters have come home for Harris.”
On the GOP side, Trump remains unpopular in New Hampshire. His high water mark was the 47 percent he received against Clinton in 2016. He has rarely polled above 45 percent among Granite State voters.
“Trump has never been popular in New Hampshire beyond his base. That said, non-Trump Republicans will most likely still back him in November,” Smith said.
And Levesque says Trump “remains the same candidate he was in June,” before the series of political dominoes began to fall after the presidential debate. “Just 43 percent of respondents have a favorable opinion of Trump versus 56 percent that have an unfavorable opinion. This is virtually identical to his 42-57 percent favorable rating in June.”
One major point of departure is Harris’ approval/disapproval in the two polls. In the UNH Survey, Harris is underwater by 10 points (39 approve/49 disapprove) but the SASC poll shows she’s at a 49-49 percent tie.
Both Levesque and Smith believe the race in New Hampshire, which has backed a Democrat in seven of the past eight presidential races, will remain competitive.
“The presidential campaign will likely remain fluid throughout the fall as Harris takes center stage for the first time,” Levesque said.
“Despite all of the action of the past two months, the race remains very close to where it has been, and where it will likely remain until Election Day,” said Smith.
National polls have also shown Harris performing better in swing states than Biden was, with the latest New York Times/Siena College poll giving Trump just a 48-47 percent lead with likely voters.
Gov. Chris Sununu isn’t surprised by Harris’ surge in New Hampshire.
“We knew she was going to get a strong bump, right? It’s not, ‘Hey, we love Kamala Harris.’ It’s ‘Thank goodness it’s not Joe Biden.’” Sununu said independents are now giving the Democratic ticket a fresh look, “and I think you’re going to see that all through the month of August.”
