The Granite State GOP activists in Milwaukee for Monday’s launch of the Republican National Convention will be participating in one of the most historic such gatherings in recent memory.
It’s the first convention in more than 130 years to nominate a former president as its candidate. It’s the first time a party has nominated the same candidate three times in a row since FDR in 1940 (and a fourth for Roosevelt in 1944.)
And assuming there’s no announcement before the convention is gaveled in, Donald Trump will be the first nominee to reveal his running mate pick during the convention since George H.W. Bush in 1988 (It was Dan Quayle.)
And then there are the circumstances. Just two days before the convention, an assassin’s bullet missed Trump’s head by millimeters. And it’s possible that, in the days after the RNC, Trump could find himself facing a different opponent if worried Democrats succeed in somehow prying the nomination away from President Joe Biden.
Has there ever been a political convention like it?
On the NHJournal podcast taped Sunday, New Hampshire state party chair Chris Ager said the shooting had an impact on the Republican activists who, like him, watched it unfold from their vantage point in Milwaukee as they prepared for the convention.
“We quickly went through shock, and then ‘What in the heck is going on?’ and then to ‘Oh my God, is the president OK?’ and then to sadness, and finally anger,” Ager said. “Now we’ve gone full cycle, and now we’re ready to do everything humanly possible, within the rules, to make sure Donald Trump is our next president. I am totally reinvigorated, and we are going to pull out all the stops.”
But Trump may not have an “all the stops” strategy this week. According to reporting in The Washington Post, The New York Times and elsewhere, the Trump campaign wants convention speakers “to dial it down, not dial it up.” The campaign is reviewing speeches, helping speakers craft a tone of unity, not conflict.
That’s what GOP campaign veteran Dave Carney is expecting this week.
“The energy will be through the roof,” Carney told NHJournal. “And the message will be unity, and a determined focus on the fall election.”
Another winning message is for the GOP to have the convention go on as planned. That’s what Trump’s campaign strategists — Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita — have in mind. In a memo to the campaign staff, the two acknowledged their horror at the attack, and they expressed their fervent hope “that this horrendous act will bring our team, and indeed the nation, together in unity and we must renew our commitment to safety and peace for our country.”
They also pledged increased security to protect the staff, then concluded:
“The RNC Convention will continue as planned in Milwaukee, where we will nominate our president to be the brave and fearless nominee of our party.”
That’s the mood Ager described in Milwaukee.
“Saturday night I was in communication with the RNC chairman — we have a chat group of other RNC members and state party chairmen — and it was universal that we’re not going to change the convention,” Ager said. “We’re going to double down. We’ve got a job to do. Everyone was — I think ‘defiant’ is a good word. Not in an angry way, but rather, ‘We’re not going to let you stop us from electing the person we want to elect.”
Former Republican National Committeeman Steve Duprey says Trump had already set himself up for an effective convention before Saturday.
“It is nothing short of amazing that he got the GOP to stand down from its long-standing position on abortion in the platform and its position on LGBTQ rights,” Duprey said. “He has his base, he doesn’t need to feed them any more red meat. He needs to convince pro-choice, suburban women that they can trust him. That block of voters will likely make the difference in five or six swing states.”
Longtime Republican strategist Tom Rath worries the assassination attempt may not be the last.
“Saturday’s shooting shows how real security risks are and concerns that go way beyond ideology or the politics of the moment,” Rath said. “Each attempt like this breeds more. I am not sure how much more screening they can do. The risk of violence is real and it could change how candidates and voters interact, and that is a terrible price to pay.”
A veteran of many political conventions, Rath told NHJournal his favorite was Houston in 1992, when George H.W. Bush was nominated for his second term.
“I was doing commentary for Boston TV. I had to get to the building early each day because of the time difference. On the third night, Reagan was to give an address. Reagan came out early; in what was basically an empty building, to walk through his speech. Reagan was not good, he was a bit halting and uncertain. I was concerned for him that the actual speech would go equally poorly.
“But in prime time, The Gipper was brilliant — in command and totally in control. It was as great a political appearance as I have ever seen.”
Jim Merrill, also a veteran of many GOP presidential campaigns said his favorite convention was the 2004 GOP gathering in New York City.
“It was the most memorable for me, featuring George W. Bush at the peak of his powers, every major GOP figure courting the New Hampshire delegation in the run up to 2008 and my career surviving nearly striking former Safety Commissioner Dick Flynn in the head as I returned a football thrown to me by Sen. George Allen (R-Va.) in a crowded ballroom with a low ceiling. Good times!”
Duprey’s pick was personal.
“I am biased, but for me it was 2008 because I was Deputy Chair of the Convention, appointed to the post by Sen. John McCain. As a result, I was very close to what was going on.
“For example, it was Cindy McCain, Sen. Joe Lieberman, and I who led John backstage before he walked out to give his acceptance speech. And it was us three who were there to greet him after he gave his speech. It was an incredible honor given to me by my friend.”
Ager is predicting this week’s convention will be one for the ages, and he believes it will be a huge success for the party and the ticket — in part because of what happened on Saturday.
“When you saw [Trump] fist pump with blood streaming down his face, you’re like, ‘This is the strength. This is the determination. This guy’s indestructible.’ New Hampshire voters are going to weigh whether they want a feeble old man as President or one who gets shot in the head and stands back up.”
“So it’s game over. We’re going to win this.”
