As expected, former New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu has decided to sit out the 2026 U.S. Senate race. What does that mean for the fight to fill Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s seat when she retires next year?
Good News for Republican Scott Brown, Bad News for the GOP
Sununu’s flirtation with a Senate run pushed former ambassador and Massachusetts U.S. Sen. Scott Brown temporarily out of the picture — particularly after Brown’s old boss, President Donald Trump, gave Sununu his blessing over the weekend.
Brown has been working on a potential Senate run for months, meeting with Republican leaders in Washington, D.C., and making the rounds in New Hampshire GOP circles. With Sununu out, Brown is back as the front-runner for the GOP nomination, though there’s likely to be a primary.
One name that’s been mentioned is GOP businessman Phil Taub, best known for his “Swim With a Mission” charity supporting veterans. Taub was out of the country Tuesday when Sununu made his announcement, but he told NHJournal the news had reached him all the way in Africa.
“I have no doubt that had (Sununu) run for this Senate seat, he would have won. But he is not running, and now Republicans need a candidate that can win this seat,” Taub said. “I have been receiving calls asking if I am interested in running, but didn’t want to really consider it unless and until Chris Sununu made a decision. I will be talking to my family and close friends.”
Another businessman, Jack Franks of Avanru Development Group, told NHJournal Tuesday night he’s still considering entering the race as well.
“Our milquetoast Democrat delegation isn’t getting the job done,” Franks said. “We need someone who understands business.”
Like Taub, Franks said he was ready to support Sununu if he had run. Asked if he would have the resources to run a statewide race starting with virtually zero name ID, Franks said, “If I decide to run, definitely.”
One person Brown won’t have to worry about is GOP operative and longtime Trump ally Corey Lewandowski. Asked by NHJournal about a 2026 run, Lewandowski replied via text: “I’m a little busy trying to save America.”
But without Sununu, the GOP’s odds of picking up the seat have gone from a coin toss to a long shot. Polling shows Sununu in the strongest position by far to flip the seat. A New Hampshire Journal poll released last month found Sununu beating Shaheen by nine points.
Sununu insisted Tuesday the seat is still in play — “This is a very winnable seat by a Republican. It doesn’t have to be me” — but most New Hampshire campaign professionals who spoke to NHJournal on background dismissed that as happy talk.
Good News for Pappas, Better News for Goodlander?
Democrats already have an announced candidate, U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas. The four-term congressman was clearly worried about Sununu possibly entering the race, as evidenced by the attacks he and his allies launched even as Sununu sat on the sidelines.
But Sununu’s decision to stand down may also inspire Rep. Maggie Goodlander to rise up. The 2nd District congresswoman has made no secret of her interest in the race, and many Granite State political insiders believe she would be the stronger candidate.
“Goodlander is going to turn him into dust,” one GOP operative told NHJournal.
Veteran journalist Mark Halperin, who covers politics on his 2Way platform, has a similar view.
“I just find her to be — in a positive way when it comes to politics — kind of a ruthless, cutthroat person who demonstrated that while winning the (2nd Congressional District) nomination and then the general election against a fair amount of odds,” Halperin said. “She’s quite a gifted pol. And I think being a woman in New Hampshire lately seems to be pretty positive in electoral politics, too.”
Others say there’s no reason for Goodlander to get in when she has a safe seat in Congress and can run as the uncontested Democratic nominee in a future race — for example, if Sen. Maggie Hassan decides not to run for a third term in 2028.
One senior Democrat told NHJournal the word is that she’s seriously looking at the race, “which is smart for her to do, briefly.”
As for comparisons to her race against Colin Van Ostern in last year’s congressional primary: “Chris Pappas is no Colin Van Ostern.”
Sununu is also impressed by her political skills, but during an interview with radio host Jack Heath on Tuesday, he urged Goodlander to stay out of the race.
“I think Maggie Goodlander, as much as I disagree with her politics, has the opportunity to be a Democrat superstar down in the House of Representatives, if she wanted to be,” Sununu said.
“So why do you give that up right away to potentially lose a primary?”
The answer from one Democrat who spoke to NHJournal on background: “With Sununu out, the only thing between her and a Senate seat is Chris Pappas. Why wouldn’t she run?”
“I think she’s a very crafty person,” added Halperin. “I don’t think she’d enter the race without feeling she had a pretty good chance to win.”
